ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9501 Postby Steve » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:58 pm

jasons wrote:Wxman 57 should have cleared it up for everyone. Matthew has been tracking east of the NHC forecast points all day. It will still be a devastating storm for Florida, and not to diminish the effects of a major hurricane, but a brush with the outer eyewall of a 120-130mph storm is not nearly the same as a direct hit from a 145mph storm. It just isn't. The story with this storm may end-up being storm surge further north.


Legit. And the difference between a few hundred million and tens of billions. But It's still stairstepping toward the coast. It looks like the overall whirling motion will take it up toward Cape Canaveral which is farther north than I thought the eyewall would have contacted land. It could stay NNW and in the water, and that's what we all want. But it's a knife edge. It looks like Seminole County up and south of Daytona has gotten the most rain with portions in the 5-6" range already. They have a ton of feeder bands to go, so if they get more training, you could see some really high amounts there.
1 likes   

User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9502 Postby meriland23 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:59 pm

10pm NHC. 13mph NW at 130 mph with 937 mb
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9503 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:00 pm

stephen23 wrote:If this thing doesn't make landfall in Florida then I would think storm surge for Georgia would just be going up. Stacking water from south Florida all the way up and shoving it into the bend.


Gosh, interesting take but I hope it wouldn't add too much to the storm surge there, if any. I'm thinking this MAYBE would mean it would also be further off GA than model consensus since model consensus has it having a northerly to NNE motion when at the GA latitudes. Crossing my fingers that that would still be the case. Any other opinions on this for GA?
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9504 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:00 pm

Good evening everyone. I am here at my home and I decided to ride Matthew out. I will stay on and provide as much as I can while the power stays on. This will be likely a very unforgettale experience needless to say.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
5 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9505 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:01 pm

The storm passed about 80 miles or so from my locale in Boca Raton as a CAT 4 and highest wind gust here might be a generous 50mph. Thought we may end up getting gusts into the 70 and 80s but that didn't even come close to happening. The storm took that north jog and ended up over Freeport instead of about 30-40 miles further west like the reliable models had it. Still have power and probably got about 2 inches of rain. The west side of a hurricane is the good side for a reason. I think if it were the other way - 80 miles on the east side, it would have been far worse. I am optimistic most of the east coast of Florida will be spared the worst winds. We may not see any wind gusts above 100mph anywhere if we get lucky as long as that center stays offshore.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:04 pm, edited 4 times in total.
2 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9506 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:01 pm

130mph about right I would think given the presentation and RECON...
1 likes   

User avatar
kpost
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 101
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2008 10:52 am
Location: Indialantic, Florida (Ohio 4now)

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9507 Postby kpost » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:02 pm

I have been reading non stop and am very confused regarding the eyeball replacement cycle. I know the cycle normally weakens but the pressure is still very low and he is transversing extremely warm waters. Is he weakening, maintaining or possibly increasing? I see all the back and forth and am just trying to learn. I understand that regardless he is a monster nobody wants on their doorstep. From what I am understanding, please correct me if I am wrong....if he weakens, his wind field will be larger creating more surge and increasing the wind field so that a brush of the eyewall will be harder to avoid.

Been lurking and just want everyone in the path of this beast to be safe. We moved back to Ohio temporarily and now I am just hoping our town of Indialantic, FL (barrier island outside Melbourne) is unharmed. I am very scared for those I know and fearful of what we will be returning to later this year.

I must also compliment the Satellite Beach Fire chief he summed up the need to evacuate the best, paraphrasing he said ....
These people comparing it to '04 and deciding that they could stay on the island because they have handled a hurricane, have not in a generation handled a hurricane and have no clue what they are possibly in for.
I loved that he hit the typical island ego and hopefully some had a change of plans and evacuated.
1 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4231
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9508 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:03 pm

shawn67 wrote:I'm calling landfall at Cocoa Beach, 942mb, 128mph sustained winds

To be honest, my opinions on Matthew have been like a roller coaster today. Currently, I don't think it's going to landfall anywhere in Florida. ("landfall" meaning the center of the eye coming ashore.) However, whether it makes landfall or not, beach erosion is going to be horrendous and many places are likely to see sustained hurricane force winds. I must stress that those in the warning areas should continue to monitor their local radio and TV stations for advice.
1 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9509 Postby Steve » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:03 pm

gatorcane wrote:The storm passed about 80 miles or so from my locale in Boca Raton as a CAT 4 and highest wind gust here might be a generous 50mph. Thought we may end up getting gusts into the 70 and 80s but that didn't even come close to happening. The storm took that north jog and ended up over Freeport instead of further west like the reliable models had it. Still have power and probably got about 2 inches of rain. The west side of a hurricane is the food side for a reason. I think if it were the other way - 80 miles on the east side, it would have been far worse. I a, optimistic most of the east coast of Florida will be spared the worst winds. We may not see any wind gusts above 100mph anywhere if we get lucky as long as that center stays offshore.


Yeah. You can see that in Haiti and probably tomorrow in some of the Bahamas. It's not the model thread, but the 01z HRRR has initialized. It's been adamant about that pulse west someone said for like 8 straight hourly runs. It's close. It's only on the 0 hour for now, but this is pretty cool to see if it can nail an impossible track to begin with should it stay with the NW moving peninsula landfall.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9510 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:05 pm

Ken711 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I didn't see any winds over 85 kts on the last couple of passes through the eye, and the winds will be weaker left of the track. It's also well east of the forecast. Might miss the east coast of Florida, yet. Much better than a strengthening Cat 4 heading into the coast near Palm Beach. Even Cat 1 hurricane winds can do a lot of damage, though.


Any thoughts further North in regards to Matthews impact on GA/SC/NC?


Just calculated that Matthew's heading is 328 deg. From it's current point, that heading takes it about 20 miles east of Cape Canaveral (if it doesn't wobble back west, which is always possible). No way to determine precisely when that NE and E turn will occur. Prepare for the worst if you live up there and hope for the best.
4 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9511 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:06 pm

The 10PM NHC coordinates have it at NNW motion for the third straight hour.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Exalt
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 337
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:55 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9512 Postby Exalt » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:06 pm

kpost wrote:I have been reading non stop and am very confused regarding the eyeball replacement cycle. I know the cycle normally weakens but the pressure is still very low and he is transversing extremely warm waters. Is he weakening, maintaining or possibly increasing? I see all the back and forth and am just trying to learn. I understand that regardless he is a monster nobody wants on their doorstep. From what I am understanding, please correct me if I am wrong....if he weakens, his wind field will be larger creating more surge and increasing the wind field so that a brush of the eyewall will be harder to avoid.

Been lurking and just want everyone in the path of this beast to be safe. We moved back to Ohio temporarily and now I am just hoping our town of Indialantic, FL (barrier island outside Melbourne) is unharmed. I am very scared for those I know and fearful of what we will be returning to later this year.

I must also compliment the Satellite Beach Fire chief he summed up the need to evacuate the best, paraphrasing he said ....
These people comparing it to '04 and deciding that they could stay on the island because they have handled a hurricane, have not in a generation handled a hurricane and have no clue what they are possibly in for.
I loved that he hit the typical island ego and hopefully some had a change of plans and evacuated.


Generally storms during ERCs are both unstable and stable, they're never really predictable either, as each storm usually tends to handle them differently. Often times, yes, storms tend to weaken a bit wind-wise as strong convection is disrupted as the outer eyewall builds up and chokes out the inner eyewall, however sometimes pressure is fair game. Considering how good Matthew looked prior to the ERC, it's safe to say it's likely he'll make it out alive and well. And if the pressure is dropping within a hurricane, it's a sign of strengthening, which is weird I know, but this storm has been weird in all categories throughout its life. Once the ERC is over, if it has the chance, winds will eventually catch up to the pressure drop, which is a bad thing.
Last edited by Exalt on Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
2 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9513 Postby Steve » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:06 pm

It moves it to the coast in 3-4 hours. We'll know if it was right before the European runs, maybe even the finale of whatever the GFS shows. Btw, 7 hours still partially on that coast. That's howling weather there. Orlando metro easily in the western eyewall if HRRR is on it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9514 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:08 pm

I am watching a TV met in West Palm and he is convinced that the system is leaning more NW towards the Treasure coast, I checked the radar and see no indication of that. He still thinks maybe hurricane force gusts for coastal Palm Beach around north County. I am just not seeing that.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9515 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:09 pm

Steve wrote:Yeah. You can see that in Haiti and probably tomorrow in some of the Bahamas. It's not the model thread, but the 01z HRRR has initialized. It's been adamant about that pulse west someone said for like 8 straight hourly runs. It's close. It's only on the 0 hour for now, but this is pretty cool to see if it can nail an impossible track to begin with should it stay with the NW moving peninsula landfall.



I believe the HRRR did the same thing with Hermine, and was wrong. It's stuck on the sudden west track into Florida which seems highly unlikely.
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Fountainguy97
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 39
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:35 am
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9516 Postby Fountainguy97 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:09 pm

The people in SC and NC need to be watching this much more closely. Recent models are coming back to a "riding the coast" scenario. The problem for intensity forecasts is the fact thatMatthew may intact makelandfall in FL then stay just over land all the way up through SC and maybe even into NC. This would be a much weaker storm.

The more frightening scenario would be a storm staying just far enough off the coast to maintain strength. Then the entire East coast from FL to NC would have the chance of hurricane force winds.

Also many models hinting at some big time rains in NC a foot of rain is on the table due to tropical moisture training into NC starting tomorrow.

Bottom line is that there are A LOT of people that think they are "safe" when in fact they are at major risk
4 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9517 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:09 pm

I tend to think in the next 5-6hrs the cane will start making a landfall, i hope not but that's what i think will pan out.
1 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9518 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:10 pm

Steve wrote:It moves it to the coast in 3-4 hours. We'll know if it was right before the European runs, maybe even the finale of whatever the GFS shows. Btw, 7 hours still partially on that coast. That's howling weather there. Orlando metro easily in the western eyewall if HRRR is on it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0


HRRR seems to have too much of a westward movement at the start of the run, that seems to throw off the rest of it.

On that note, someone in Titusville (who already has the shutters up) asked how their house will fare, so what sort of winds should I tell them to assume they'll be waking up to?
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

smithtim
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 110
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:43 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9519 Postby smithtim » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:10 pm

meriland23 wrote:10pm NHC. 13mph NW at 130 mph with 937 mb


And 135 miles SE of Cape Canaveral...so about 10 hours

Time for me finaly get some shuteye after couple long days prep / evac...stay safe everyone & thanks to all y'all taking the time on here to post such useful info!!!
Last edited by smithtim on Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!

FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9520 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:11 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 10PM NHC coordinates have it at NNW motion for the third straight hour.


two problems. if your tracking the center that is rotating around the larger eyewall then your going to have issues.

also thats why they do a 6 hour average motion.. not 3. :P
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests