ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jasons2k]

Wxman 57 should have cleared it up for everyone. Matthew has been tracking east of the NHC forecast points all day. It will still be a devastating storm for Florida, and not to diminish the effects of a major hurricane, but a brush with the outer eyewall of a 120-130mph storm is not nearly the same as a direct hit from a 145mph storm. It just isn't. The story with this storm may end-up being storm surge further north.

Do you think it will possibly recurve earlier then forecast? We are in Beaufort, South Carolina and would love for it to go out to sea.

It could, but probably not by much. The problem/challenge is when it gets that far north, the recurve trajectory by a few degrees east or west could make a big difference in terms of miles, where the center tracks. The center should stay a good distance east of Beaufort, but the storm surge could still be tremendous for the SC coast. A lot of water is still going to pile-up ahead of the storm as it pushes north along the coast.

A few other things I want to caveat...while I think it's looking more likely the center will just miss the FL coast -- anything can happen and only a small nudge west overnight could change everything. Secondly, I'm closely watching the pressure readings. With the pressure still dropping, continued intensification is likely -- the question is how much?

[tolakram]

More IR oddities.

latest



loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-79&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

[meriland23]

More IR oddities.

latest

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/9tFSli7.jpg[/img]

loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-79&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

What oddities?

[kpost]

Anyone know of a live news cast to stream coming out of Melbourne? I am wearing out my remote up here (ohio) trying to find live casts.

Edited to add: I know one was mentioned earlier but I lost it. Sorry.

Also Matt is set to approach Melbourne around 12am to 2am. 12am is roughly high tide how large of an impact will that have?

[stephen23]

I expect a west jog over next hour just looking at radar. Inner Eyewall just opened up to the south Last time it did that the inner eyewall got thrown to the west and that is when we saw the west jog of the outer eyewall.

[ncweatherwizard]

I have been reading non stop and am very confused regarding the eyeball replacement cycle. I know the cycle normally weakens but the pressure is still very low and he is transversing extremely warm waters. Is he weakening, maintaining or possibly increasing? I see all the back and forth and am just trying to learn. I understand that regardless he is a monster nobody wants on their doorstep. From what I am understanding, please correct me if I am wrong....if he weakens, his wind field will be larger creating more surge and increasing the wind field so that a brush of the eyewall will be harder to avoid.

Been lurking and just want everyone in the path of this beast to be safe. We moved back to Ohio temporarily and now I am just hoping our town of Indialantic, FL (barrier island outside Melbourne) is unharmed. I am very scared for those I know and fearful of what we will be returning to later this year.

I must also compliment the Satellite Beach Fire chief he summed up the need to evacuate the best, paraphrasing he said ....
These people comparing it to '04 and deciding that they could stay on the island because they have handled a hurricane, have not in a generation handled a hurricane and have no clue what they are possibly in for.
I loved that he hit the typical island ego and hopefully some had a change of plans and evacuated.

Part of the reason you're hearing different things is because there are different metrics to determine intensity. If one uses minimum central surface pressure, then it's level intensity or even slightly strengthening. If one uses wind, it's weakening. People hone in on wind because it can cause damage, but the minimum pressure is a more objective measurement. So I would assert that the storm is currently strengthening, albeit slowly, and perhaps temporarily.

Aircraft is en route now. I suspect we may see some signs of the pressure gradient broadening (which would mean lower winds but not necessarily any change to the minimum pressure), but still with a sharp minimum at the eye. We'll see soon.

[abajan]

The 10PM NHC coordinates have it at NNW motion for the third straight hour.

Just in case anyone wants to know what compass designation corresponds to a stated number of degrees, here's a cool calculator I've been using recently.

[HurricaneBelle]

I have been reading non stop and am very confused regarding the eyeball replacement cycle.

"Eyeball replacement cycle" has been the best thing I've read in this thread tonight.

[tolakram]

What oddities?

The patch of white convection sticking out by itself to the left of the eye. It may be part of the outer eyewall.

[NDG]

Winds now gusting 50-60 mph for Stuart to Vero Beach along the immediate coast.

[skufful]

Wxman 57 should have cleared it up for everyone. Matthew has been tracking east of the NHC forecast points all day. It will still be a devastating storm for Florida, and not to diminish the effects of a major hurricane, but a brush with the outer eyewall of a 120-130mph storm is not nearly the same as a direct hit from a 145mph storm. It just isn't. The story with this storm may end-up being storm surge further north.

Do you think it will possibly recurve earlier then forecast? We are in Beaufort, South Carolina and would love for it to go out to sea.

It could, but probably not by much. The problem/challenge is when it gets that far north, the recurve trajectory by a few degrees east or west could make a big difference in terms of miles, where the center tracks. The center should stay a good distance east or Beaufort, but the storm surge could still be tremendous for the SC coast. A lot of water is still going to pile-up ahead of the storm as it pushes north along the coast.

A few other things I want to caveat...while I think it's looking more likely the center will just miss the FL coast -- anything can happen and only a small nudge west overnight could change everything. Secondly, I'm closely watching the pressure readings. With the pressure still dropping, continued intensification is likely -- the question is how much?

Thx, fortunate to be on the highest bluff in the county. Flooding not a problem.

[CrazyC83]

Anyone know of a live news cast to stream coming out of Melbourne? I am wearing out my remote up here (ohio) trying to find live casts.

Edited to add: I know one was mentioned earlier but I lost it. Sorry.

Also Matt is set to approach Melbourne around 12am to 2am. 12am is roughly high tide how large of an impact will that have?

Melbourne is in the Orlando market, so their stations would cover it.

[Blown Away]

What is that big dry slot surrounding the small eye...

[jdjaguar]

Good evening everyone. I am here at my home and I decided to ride Matthew out. I will stay on and provide as much as I can while the power stays on. This will be likely a very unforgettale experience needless to say.

Where are you in Jax?
We relocated to sons house west of Hodges
And out of the flood zone.
Will update conditions as well.
Still uncomfortably close to the coast but
Hoping the east shift is real and the eye wall stays offshore. Preferably 35 miles offshore or more
Stay safe

[adam0983]

What made Hurricane Matthew shift east and miss south Florida?

[Hurricaneman]

What is that big dry slot surrounding the small eye...

The larger eye, the smaller eye should be gone in the next hour or so I would imagine

[HDGator]

It's been a strange storm. Expecting our closest pass in the next couple of hours in Palm Beach Gardens and have seen conditions approaching TS conditions but not quite making it there. After waking up to see the possible approach of a strengthening Cat 4 within 25 miles, it's a relief to see it pass closer to 55 miles ENE of us. But the storm structure still remains perplexing to me. Whether it's the ERC or some other oddity, you'd expect the wind field for a 939mb storm (that has been sub 950 for some period) to be somewhat more organized at 55 mi. Matthew doesn't seem to be living up to his reputation at this point, which is fine with me. He can keep missing those forecast points to the east all night. Take care all and be safe!

[stephen23]

Looks like some are about to be hit with a good outflow boundry

[Hurricaneman]

What made Hurricane Matthew shift east and miss south Florida?

It was never forecast to go there by the NHC only TS winds were predicted

[AdamFirst]

Kind of regretting/annoyed I evacuated for this, but that's the chance you take. My house in Port Saint Lucie still has power - could have slept in my big bed tonight rather than an air mattress on the floor in my sister's living room in Coral Springs.