2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[jlauderdal]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/785554190856753153




https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/785557994549280768

see, they are kind of liking that area..need some consistency though on east side versus the pacific...plenty of untapped heat potential down there

[gatorcane]

The 12Z UKMET is picking up on it:

[HURRICANELONNY]

So according to that map. Nicole won't get close to bermuda for a week=168 hrs.

[Hurricaneman]

Anything from a weak low to a Wilma is possible, just watch the models for trends

[jason1912]

One storm that formed near this area was Sandy

[AutoPenalti]

We were in this situation before. Looks probable that it may happen again.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has a more consolidated low that develops south of Jamaica where it it heads WNW over the NW Caribbean and near the Yucatan. Wind shear looks low and SSTs really warm yet the GFS doesn't really deepen it. Also there is a big trough heading toward the northern Gulf and had it deepened it would have turned the cyclone north than NE toward Florida. Bears watching for sure. Classic October track possibilities with this one into Florida.

[jlauderdal]

18Z GFS has a more consolidated low that develops south of Jamaica where it it heads WNW over the NW Caribbean and near the Yucatan. Wind shear looks low and SSTs really warm yet the GFS doesn't really deepen it. Also there is a big trough heading toward the northern Gulf and had it deepened it would have turned the cyclone north than NE toward Florida. Bears watching for sure. Classic October track possibilities with this one into Florida.

northjaxpro says ok as long as it stays south of Fort Pierce...we were so lucky in broward and dade

[abajan]

12Z Euro with anomalously low pressure across the NW Caribbean by day 10:

https://s11.postimg.org/7bg81v7tf/ecmwf ... atl_11.png

That 1006 mb LOW would be almost smack dab in the middle of the area which currently has the highest TCHP in the entire Atlantic basin:

[Hurricaneman]

18Z GFS has a more consolidated low that develops south of Jamaica where it it heads WNW over the NW Caribbean and near the Yucatan. Wind shear looks low and SSTs really warm yet the GFS doesn't really deepen it. Also there is a big trough heading toward the northern Gulf and had it deepened it would have turned the cyclone north than NE toward Florida. Bears watching for sure. Classic October track possibilities with this one into Florida.

It probably wouldn't deepen it until its in a closer range like say 5 days

[jason1912]

Better organized this run.

[Hurricaneman]

The one thing I worry about is that high octane fuel in the NW Caribbean, it can support a cat 5 hurricane and maybe even a 200mph hurricane if conditions are right

[AJC3]

The best analogs involving Florida hits that I could find for the region and month ( I may have missed some) were:

UNNAMED 1944 Oct 12, 1944 to Oct 24, 1944
UNNAMED 1947 Oct 08, 1947 to Oct 16, 1947
ITEM 1951 Oct 12, 1951 to Oct 17, 1951
ISBELL 1964 Oct 08, 1964 to Oct 17, 1964
GLADYS 1968 Oct 13, 1968 to Oct 21, 1968
FLOYD 1987 Oct 09, 1987 to Oct 14, 1987
IRENE 1999 Oct 12, 1999 to Oct 19, 1999
WILMA 2005 Oct 15, 2005 to Oct 26, 2005

I did a ESRL composite (It starts at 1948 so I had to drop the 44 and 47 TCs) of the 500MB patterns around the time their respective centers were near 18N and 80-85W just to confirm what I suspected about the analog 500MB pattern and it's pretty intuitive. You need a strong ridge east of Florida and a mid to upper level trough digging far enough west over the Gulf of Mexico to produce meridional (a strong south to north component) mid to upper level flow that will back both mean steering winds, and the upper level wind/shear vector to (1) Allow the system to stay far enough west as it moves north such that it doesn't miss Florida to the south/east once it invariably recurves, and (2) Doesn't get decapitated by shear along the way.

The means get a little contaminated from the mid level reflection of the TC itself...when I get home I'll see if I can put together some dailies.

[jlauderdal]

The best analogs involving Florida hits that I could find for the region and month ( I may have missed some) were:

UNNAMED 1944 Oct 12, 1944 to Oct 24, 1944
UNNAMED 1947 Oct 08, 1947 to Oct 16, 1947
ITEM 1951 Oct 12, 1951 to Oct 17, 1951
ISBELL 1964 Oct 08, 1964 to Oct 17, 1964
GLADYS 1968 Oct 13, 1968 to Oct 21, 1968
FLOYD 1987 Oct 09, 1987 to Oct 14, 1987
IRENE 1999 Oct 12, 1999 to Oct 19, 1999
WILMA 2005 Oct 15, 2005 to Oct 26, 2005

I did a ESRL composite of the 500MB patterns around the time their respective centers were near 18N and 80-85W just to confirm what I suspected about the analog 500MB pattern and it's pretty intuitive. You need a strong ridge east of Florida and a mid to upper level trough digging far enough west over the Gulf of Mexico to produce meridional (a strong south to north component) mid to upper level flow that will back both mean steering winds, and the upper level wind/shear vector to (1) Allow the system to stay far enough west as it moves north such that it doesn't miss Florida to the south/east once it invariably recurves, and (2) Doesn't get decapitated by shear along the way.

The means get a little contaminated from the mid level reflection of the TC itself...when I get home I'll see if I can put together some dailies.

Irene was a very wet storm while wilma was more of a wind event

[SFLcane]

Not much on the models yet GFS keeps a weak low buried downed there.

[AJC3]

The best analogs involving Florida hits that I could find for the region and month ( I may have missed some) were:

UNNAMED 1944 Oct 12, 1944 to Oct 24, 1944
UNNAMED 1947 Oct 08, 1947 to Oct 16, 1947
ITEM 1951 Oct 12, 1951 to Oct 17, 1951
ISBELL 1964 Oct 08, 1964 to Oct 17, 1964
GLADYS 1968 Oct 13, 1968 to Oct 21, 1968
FLOYD 1987 Oct 09, 1987 to Oct 14, 1987
IRENE 1999 Oct 12, 1999 to Oct 19, 1999
WILMA 2005 Oct 15, 2005 to Oct 26, 2005

I did a ESRL composite of the 500MB patterns around the time their respective centers were near 18N and 80-85W just to confirm what I suspected about the analog 500MB pattern and it's pretty intuitive. You need a strong ridge east of Florida and a mid to upper level trough digging far enough west over the Gulf of Mexico to produce meridional (a strong south to north component) mid to upper level flow that will back both mean steering winds, and the upper level wind/shear vector to (1) Allow the system to stay far enough west as it moves north such that it doesn't miss Florida to the south/east once it invariably recurves, and (2) Doesn't get decapitated by shear along the way.

The means get a little contaminated from the mid level reflection of the TC itself...when I get home I'll see if I can put together some dailies.

Irene was a very wet storm while wilma was more of a wind event

Up our way, we got backsided really hard by the winds. IIRC, there was a LOT less rain here than your area received.

[AJC3]

Not much on the models yet GFS keeps a weak low buried downed there.

At day 10, the 00Z ECM and GFS are in pretty remarkable agreement for that far out. Both show a TC around 14-18N and 78-82W, give or take.

[jlauderdal]

Not much on the models yet GFS keeps a weak low buried downed there.

At day 10, the 00Z ECM and GFS are in pretty remarkable agreement for that far out. Both show a TC around 14-18N and 78-82W, give or take.

are you seeing anything to pull it out of the carib?

[AJC3]

Not much on the models yet GFS keeps a weak low buried downed there.

At day 10, the 00Z ECM and GFS are in pretty remarkable agreement for that far out. Both show a TC around 14-18N and 78-82W, give or take.

are you seeing anything to pull it out of the carib?

Nope. On both models, there's a pretty stout ridge to the north across Florida and a trough to the east. GFS drives it into Belize by H312.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06 GFS...starts cranking low as little as day 5 and really cranks it up this run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=26