
Wilmaesque might I say.
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DESTRUCTION5 wrote: Wilmaesque might I say.
AJC3 wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote: Wilmaesque might I say.
YUGE change at 06Z. No more burying it into Belize. Standard Fantasyland caveat applies.
AJC3 wrote:H384 = RIP SWFL
Patrick99 wrote:Would be right on schedule for a latter-half-of-October Western Caribbean hurricane. Going to be watching this closely for a while.
As for Irene vs Wilma, Irene was some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen, while Wilma carried some decent gusts, by far the most I'd seen wind-wise since Andrew.
SouthFloridian92 wrote:What general path do the models show the storm taking?
USTropics wrote:Last nights 00z-06z model run recap, ensembles continue to support development in the Caribbean starting in roughly 140-180 hours.
Ensembles
If something does form (and indications over the past three days have increasing probability of this), it appears we'll have another very complex steering pattern taking shape long term:
06z GFS esnembles 186 hours
http://i.imgur.com/u9v5zF5.png
00z CMC ensembles at 192 hours
http://i.imgur.com/KVfETjZ.png
00z ECMWF ensembles
http://i.imgur.com/jCF0j6o.png
06z GFS ensembles at 270 hours showing many possible outcomes
http://i.imgur.com/aQPh6PE.png
Operational
The operational runs are actually in amazing agreement through 168 hours. Solutions diverge thereafter.
00z UKMET buries this into the Caribbean through 168 hours
http://i.imgur.com/KT487yh.png
00z ECMWF has a weak 850mb vort signature near Jamaica at 240 hours
http://i.imgur.com/KPpZeRe.png
06z GFS is positioned just to the SW of the ECWMF at the same time frame
http://i.imgur.com/k7bWHZc.png
00z CMC is currently a northern outlier with NAVGEM
http://i.imgur.com/yqEN0gh.png
00z FIM is close to the GFS/ECMWF solution
http://i.imgur.com/6kOITAW.png
00z ACCESS (Australian model) has a low in the Caribbean through 144 hours
http://i.imgur.com/3CSZZL2.png
06z NAVGEM through 144 hours
http://i.imgur.com/IS6uPST.png
Even the 06z German model shows development
http://i.imgur.com/b9O69Y6.png
TL;DR there is increasing ensemble and global model support for tropical genesis in the Caribbean. Plenty of time to watch, but keep a watchful eye on this area.
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