2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Miami Storm Tracker]

If this does develop this time of year you have impulse's or fronts coming across the country from west to east. These will tend to lift what ever may be down there to the WNW NW or N. Once the front catches it they end up moving ENE or NE. Only way this moves due west if you had really strong high pressure to drive it west.

[psyclone]

If this does develop this time of year you have impulse's or fronts coming across the country from west to east. These will tend to lift what ever may be down there to the WNW NW or N. Once the front catches it they end up moving ENE or NE. Only way this moves due west if you had really strong high pressure to drive it west.

That latter scenario seems plausible based upon the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks which lean warmer and drier than normal across Florida. Worth watching how these evolve in the coming days in addition to the model runs.

[blp]

Looks like the NAVGEM starting to show this as a weak system at 180hrs

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

[blp]

CFS has been showing something past several runs.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... &RES=0

[blp]

Well the HWRF and GFDL starting show it as well but with much different timeframes and locations. I think you have a strong signal going with the models now.

HWRF


GFDL

[bamajammer4eva]

If this does develop this time of year you have impulse's or fronts coming across the country from west to east. These will tend to lift what ever may be down there to the WNW NW or N. Once the front catches it they end up moving ENE or NE. Only way this moves due west if you had really strong high pressure to drive it west.

That latter scenario seems plausible based upon the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks which lean warmer and drier than normal across Florida. Worth watching how these evolve in the coming days in addition to the model runs.

That could be true though things have been progressive so far and We've had fronts come thru on the northern gulf coast dropping temps into the upper 40s into the Florida panhandle. The fronts have been dry and thus the continued drought conditions across central and northern Alabama/Georgia. A very weak front is supposed to come around Saturday but gets washed out so overall just a warming trend through at least early-mid next week.

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[Hurricaneman]

looking at the 0zGFS its definitely the wave currently at 25W thats the catalyst for development I believe

[WeatherEmperor]

00z GFS through 180hrs. Looks like its dropping development.................LoL!!


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[Alyono]

as i said, development is LIKELY but not GUARANTEED in this case. This is not the Matthew genesis scenario

[Alyono]

there is no development as the MU has a totally different upper air pattern. Instead of an upper ridge, it has very strong westerlies this run

[WeatherHoon]

there is no development as the MU has a totally different upper air pattern. Instead of an upper ridge, it has very strong westerlies this run

Hope it stays that way.

[Hurricaneman]

there is no development as the MU has a totally different upper air pattern. Instead of an upper ridge, it has very strong westerlies this run

When in doubt go with the Euro

[Alyono]

fortunately, its only the Canadian, but it's showing a worse than Matthew hurricane for Haiti

[Alyono]

there is no development as the MU has a totally different upper air pattern. Instead of an upper ridge, it has very strong westerlies this run

When in doubt go with the Euro

not in the deep tropics for reasons stated a hundred times this year

[bamajammer4eva]

Gefs ensemble Trend



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[SouthFLTropics]

I don't think anyone should be surprised that the 00z GFS has dropped development. We've seen this many times before where the models will drop development in the mid to long range only to bring it back later. I say we wait to see what this weekends model runs start showing.

[otowntiger]

I don't think anyone should be surprised that the 00z GFS has dropped development. We've seen this many times before where the models will drop development in the mid to long range only to bring it back later. I say we wait to see what this weekends model runs start showing.

Yeah it is still pretty early for anything concrete to happen.

[SFLcane]

O6z has development again for all you 300+hr model lovers. Not much to look at here for now

[jlauderdal]

O6z has development again for all you 300+hr model lovers. Not much to look at here for now

euro has a broad low down there

[lovingseason2013]

Are you talking about this year? No 40s anywhere near here, 60s maybe, but not even close to 40s!

If this does develop this time of year you have impulse's or fronts coming across the country from west to east. These will tend to lift what ever may be down there to the WNW NW or N. Once the front catches it they end up moving ENE or NE. Only way this moves due west if you had really strong high pressure to drive it west.

That latter scenario seems plausible based upon the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks which lean warmer and drier than normal across Florida. Worth watching how these evolve in the coming days in addition to the model runs.

That could be true though things have been progressive so far and We've had fronts come thru on the northern gulf coast dropping temps into the upper 40s into the Florida panhandle. The fronts have been dry and thus the continued drought conditions across central and northern Alabama/Georgia. A very weak front is supposed to come around Saturday but gets washed out so overall just a warming trend through at least early-mid next week.

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