Texas Fall-2016

[Ntxw]

The Euro weeklies today pretty much portrays what we are talking about. Warm and higher heights through about the first week of November. Then trough/pattern change digs in about the second week or so and the flip switches so to speak. It pretty much is below to much below normal after that period. It is long, long range but it's enough hope that there is a light at the end of the tunnel with potentially the -AO/-NAO and -EPO finally manifesting to change in our neck of the woods. They have been doing so elsewhere gradually.

And for giggles maybe even a deep storm mid November. Rumbles anybody?

[Ntxw]

Also I can't post the weeklies for obvious reasons but if you were looking for a cold November you would look for a pattern like these as a visual. Maybe not quite the magnitude of a 1976 but the 500mb look is in the ballpark from the conglomerate ensembles of the weeklies

The big daddy of them all



Most recent memory of a pattern of such

[Ntxw]

Third post, and you can't say the weeklies are alone. The CFSv2 is free and it is running in that ballpark





My two cents for the evening. I stand by the notion that the extreme -AO and snowfall coverage this October will eventually leave a mark with a front loaded winter as it does with so many cold neutrals and weak Ninas.

[Brent]

The 0z GFS has change basically starting on November 1st with some rain developing over Texas and cold air is beginning to drop south out of Canada, still would be warm, but signs of change.

[Ntxw]

LaLaLand...if real that might help lay some snow in the central plains and rockies. Maybe even the panhandle who knows

[Brent]

Snow in West Texas at 324 hours and yet another rain event for most of us. The broader idea is consistent on much cooler air sometime around that first weekend of November leading into Election Day.

[Portastorm]

What a difference a day makes, huh?! Both the GFS and Euro show strong signals for a nice rain event for Texas by the middle of next week (Nov. 3-4).

[gboudx]

jeff gives some hope for next week as well.

Upper air pattern remains one of stagnation across the southern plains and TX with upper level ridging in place.

Recent cold front late last week with surface high pressure over the eastern US will continue to bring a relatively dry air mass inland from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper level heights build slightly which will push afternoon temperatures into the mid and upper 80’s today into the weekend. Low level moisture remains shallow and expect no rain chances into the weekend. Region is starting to dry with latest US drought monitor showing drought conditions over the mid south developing westward toward eastern TX.

Could see a much more active pattern begin to take shape over the SW/S US by the middle of next week with rain chances starting to increase by late next week.

[Ntxw]

Watch the Aleutians/Bering Sea region. Both Euro and GFS deepens a 950-960mb ET cyclone by this weekend that could be the first domino to the regime change. Such a system would raise heights over Alaska/NW Canada thus -EPO that the euro has at the end of its run.

The changes in the stratosphere continues. PV is near record weakness at a time when it is approaching its strongest time of the year. That kind of result typically does not bottle up cold, it is a weaker jet stream that buckles easily. It fits the narrative of early season cold. After a record warm October.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Nature is also showing a possible weather change. Wasps are actively swarming around electrical boxes, houses and other buildings. Insects usually are a pretty good indicator of changes in the weather.

[Brent]

Fantasy snow in the Panhandle again:

[Ntxw]

To continue the theme up in the stratosphere. The PV is going to split. For those who follow the stratosphere and the warming events this is a pretty big deal. I'm not sure since the 1970s you will find this early of a full split of the vortex. 2009 made a pretty good attempt but didn't quite do it. This is not unusual for midwinter as it does happen every few years (we know that as a SSW) but it is very unorthodox this early.

[Brent]

0z GFS drier and warmer... near record highs first weekend of November now...

The Euro is more optimistic at least.

[JDawg512]

0z GFS drier and warmer... near record highs first weekend of November now...

The Euro is more optimistic at least.

Yea but the Euro hasn't been doing well this month. The overall drier GFS is more on the mark and until I see a change where the GFS gets a forecast really wrong, I'm tending to side with the GFS and paying less attention to the Euro.

Thanks for your insight Ntwx. I'm going to start my rain chanting soon lol.

[Ntxw]

Any change though, will not likely affect October which as mentioned been too warm. It's supposed to be one of the wetter months of the year (it has not been) and is supposed to feel like fall (has not). I don't think we've felt a cool/cold October since 2012...the summers have been displaced, they have been starting late (June has been really nice compared to the past) which October seems to have taken the look of September.

[Portastorm]

That's a great point and something I was saying yesterday to some co-workers. The month of October this year has really been like mid-September with no signs of it changing. At least for the Austin area, I would like to go back and look at the last few years and see how many months out of ... say ... 36 ... that we averaged above normal temps. We have not had a hard freeze in the last two winters. Seriously. It has been THAT warm here.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The past few winters really haven't been ideal if you're a cold lover. Have we transitioned to a climate that just doesn't really support fall and winter anymore, if that's even possible?

[Tejas89]

SIAP, but noticed the NWS has about a 45% chance of a warmer than average winter for DFW, with a similar chance of lower than average rainfall.

Speaking of recent winters, I looked back at the DFW records since 2000. Since then, winter (DJF) has seen 39 record highs or record high low temps. And 10 record lows or record low highs. About all of the latter have been in February.

[JDawg512]

That's a great point and something I was saying yesterday to some co-workers. The month of October this year has really been like mid-September with no signs of it changing. At least for the Austin area, I would like to go back and look at the last few years and see how many months out of ... say ... 36 ... that we averaged above normal temps. We have not had a hard freeze in the last two winters. Seriously. It has been THAT warm here.

Agreed... None of our sensitive plants died back this past winter. If it got down to 32° in this area, it didn't last long enough and for sure did not see a hard freeze.

October really has noticeably changed over the last 2-3 decades. When I was a kid back in the 80s, Halloweens were cooler. Kids these days could not wear the kinds of costumes that my generation did cause it's just too hot. We used to rake leaves and fill up those jack-o-lantern trash bags. Now they don't even sell those locally and haven't for over 10 years.

The seasons have shifted, the question is whether they continue to shift and how extreme specific patterns get?

One thing's for sure. This Halloween is going to be warm. I guess the only upside is I've been able to set up our display quickly without having to deal with rain. As long as we can get some decent rainfall in November. The monthly average would be great!

[Brent]

It does seem like things have changed and not in a good way. I've been here 3 Octobers now and all are among warmest ever. It seems like we never talk about record lows anymore but have no trouble threatening record highs. I hope the pattern flips soon but I'm still not seeing a whole lot of evidence yet but more broadly I have to just wonder what is going on. The El Nino is over so what's the excuse now.

This is just not normal and it's been like this generally for weeks if not months: