Texas Fall-2016

[horselattitudesfarm]

I know this isn't Texas related, but can anyone please give me some hope that this drought in the southeast is going to end before spring?

[JDawg512]

I know this isn't Texas related, but can anyone please give me some hope that this drought in the southeast is going to end before spring?

I'm no expert on weather patterns for the southeast but when it's wetter in Texas it seems to be dry in the southeast and vice versa. Seeing the fires around the Atlanta area reminds me of the fires we had here, specifically 2011.

I'm sure someone else can give you a better answer but it may get worse before it gets better. My worry is that the drought will continue to spread west back across Texas.

[gboudx]

I know this isn't Texas related, but can anyone please give me some hope that this drought in the southeast is going to end before spring?

James Spann is a good met to follow. He's obviously Alabama focused but his updates may offer some hope.

http://alabamanewscenter.com/2016/11/07 ... n-alabama/

[horselattitudesfarm]

I know this isn't Texas related, but can anyone please give me some hope that this drought in the southeast is going to end before spring?

James Spann is a good met to follow. He's obviously Alabama focused but his updates may offer some hope.

http://alabamanewscenter.com/2016/11/07 ... n-alabama/

Thank you guys for the info. I have been hearing about the potential for a trough to form next week. I'm just getting used to the models 'moving the goalposts' everytime we get close to a pattern flip for us, but, I will keep up hope. The smoke is so bad that my eyes burn all the time and my nose is constantly running.

[Ralph's Weather]

The step down continues with a new low for the season of 42. It is getting pretty dry around here, hope we get some rain soon.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Some more humor form our local mets NWS discussion:

".....NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM EST...residents of extreme northeast GA, Upstate SC,
and the srn Piedmont/Foothills of NC should not be alarmed. The
liquid that is falling from the sky is only water (with some trace
impurities). It will not harm you in small quantities. Folks
around here used to call it `rain.` It is actually beneficial.".......

[Ntxw]

The drought in the southeast has been a pretty easy forecast. Nearly every La Nina after an El Nino focuses drought in the southern US. This one is actually focusing a little further east but the general sense remains. Next year will be better eastern Dixie and perhaps worse for Texas and further west. Especially if it goes into a second year Nina. The only savior would be if we flipped back to an El Nino.

First year Nina



The years after



The PDO of course is the quiet background influence along with ENSO

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, we better hope the mjo is other phases besides 4-6 because it will be a long winter if it is. Those are very warm phases unless we have a teleconnection that trumps it. From what ive read, we are fixing to get in a +epo, -ao, and -nao. Dec 2012 has been floating around

[Ntxw]

Personally I don't think 2012 is a great analog. Alot of the background state was much different, ENSO/PDO were amongst two big things.

We continue to see much warming in the stratosphere and there are hints of possible reflection down the line. Some of the model runs are starting to show some good Hudson Bay/Greenland. blocking This is not the severe -EPO arctic blasts per say...but it can work to thread the needle for some early winter fun

[Ralph's Weather]

Ntxw, we better hope the mjo is other phases besides 4-6 because it will be a long winter if it is. Those are very warm phases unless we have a teleconnection that trumps it. From what ive read, we are fixing to get in a +epo, -ao, and -nao. Dec 2012 has been floating around

In Texas the Pacific trumps the Atlantic almost always. Until we get a solid ridge into the NE Pacific we will not see sustained cold. We may see some frost in rural areas next weekend which is pretty late around here.

[Brent]

I really can't believe how sad this fall has been so far... it's not even snowed really in Colorado yet...

Even next week's cold snap it looks to warm right back up. December is fast approaching after that.

[Golf7070]

:uarrow: Personally I don't think 2012 is a great analog. Alot of the background state was much different, ENSO/PDO were amongst two big things.

We continue to see much warming in the stratosphere and there are hints of possible reflection down the line. Some of the model runs are starting to show some good Hudson Bay/Greenland. blocking This is not the severe -EPO arctic blasts per say...but it can work to thread the needle for some early winter fun

Ntxw, do you think that strat image you posted will make it to surface on our side? What's your best Dec analog moving forward and or for the winter?

[Yukon Cornelius]

I really can't believe how sad this fall has been so far... it's not even snowed really in Colorado yet...

Even next week's cold snap it looks to warm right back up. December is fast approaching after that.

I hear ya. I gave up on this fall and winter a while back, it's pretty sad when it hasn't even been that cool and it's almost December.

[weatherdude1108]

I really can't believe how sad this fall has been so far... it's not even snowed really in Colorado yet...

Even next week's cold snap it looks to warm right back up. December is fast approaching after that.

I hear ya. I gave up on this fall and winter a while back, it's pretty sad when it hasn't even been that cool and it's almost December.

I know. The trees down here are just now starting to shed, within the last week or two. It hasn't gotten below the mid-50s so far here.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, do you think that strat image you posted will make it to surface on our side? What's your best Dec analog moving forward and or for the winter?

I do. We're going to get some colder anomalies in the source region to come. SST and 500mb analogs still point best to 1983. Not many if any other years look similar. Doesn't mean the weather will pan out like 1983 but the pattern regression may happen.

All of the teleconnections will be negative by next weekend and we will have snowcover from Canada down to the central plains/Rockies. Will be a wicked blizzard this week in the Dakotas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yesterday here in Houston i thought it was great. Need more days like that. I looked at the reanalysis of 83'-84 and the history section on weather underground for houston. We had multiple freezes that year from BIG cold snaps. We made it down to 10 F in Dec '83 with crazy shallow air from a -EPO. Had some warm ups in between, but its possibly we have some big cold snaps. Maybe not that crazy big but pretty big.

[Ralph's Weather]

Ntxw, do you think that strat image you posted will make it to surface on our side? What's your best Dec analog moving forward and or for the winter?

I do. We're going to get some colder anomalies in the source region to come. SST and 500mb analogs still point best to 1983. Not many if any other years look similar. Doesn't mean the weather will pan out like 1983 but the pattern regression may happen.

All of the teleconnections will be negative by next weekend and we will have snowcover from Canada down to the central plains/Rockies. Will be a wicked blizzard this week in the Dakotas.

This is what I have expected all along really, it just takes time for the cycle to run its course. The good thing about this pattern is that warm in Canada still means snow. And as you mentioned that snow is about to really start building over the Plains. Winter's push south is a bit slow this year, but all signs point towards it still being a decent to good winter as far as cold and snow in the S Plains.

[Ntxw]

Yesterday here in Houston i thought it was great. Need more days like that. I looked at the reanalysis of 83'-84 and the history section on weather underground for houston. We had multiple freezes that year from BIG cold snaps. We made it down to 10 F in Dec '83 with crazy shallow air from a -EPO. Had some warm ups in between, but its possibly we have some big cold snaps. Maybe not that crazy big but pretty big.

The 1983 Alaskan ridge is a once in a lifetime event. That's nearly as strong as some of our summer ridges down here but in winter up there! I don't foresee a kind of block like that but all we need is some cross polar flow. There is a deep reservoir of cold sitting in Siberia. Change the direction of the winds and it will drain into Canada.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at the models its going to be very very cold in siberia for the next 10 days. Only getting colder. So how long till another SSW event takes place due to the severe cold in that region? (Heat Flux) The Stratosphere obviously needs to reload but i expect some insanely cold temps in this region in Dec - Jan timeframe if its already this cold. That cold air has to go somewhere.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the models its going to be very very cold in siberia for the next 10 days. Only getting colder. So how long till another SSW event takes place due to the severe cold in that region? (Heat Flux) The Stratosphere obviously needs to reload but i expect some insanely cold temps in this region in Dec - Jan timeframe if its already this cold. That cold air has to go somewhere.

It is currently going on. The graphic of the rapid expansion of warmth across north Asia above. The PV is experiencing a short tightening before being hit again thus the models forecasting -AO to return after this brief +AO stint.