EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF much weaker and delays development.

[blp]

Outside of the GFS the other models show a pinball action going on with this system just meandering around for 10 days. This is a change from yesterday when several models had landfall over Nicaragua. Its going to be a while before we know where this ends up.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/799699892566364160

[cycloneye]

Keeps going down.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea are associated with a broad low pressure area. Upper-level
winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development
over the next couple of days. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to be more conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could still form early next
week while the low moves slowly and erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Pasch

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

A few storms getting up now in what looks better shear conditions as per cimss.



green=shear yellow=divergence.

[blp]

A few storms getting up now in what looks better shear conditions as per cimss.
[img]https://s17.postimg.org/5crs9ndz3/rgb_animated.gif[/g]

[]https://s15.postimg.org/9bp9iro2z/Selection_013.png[/img]
green=shear yellow=divergence.

Yeah I think it is now starting a trend toward better organization. Shear is certainly starting to loosen it's grip. Vorticity continues to strengthen and convergence is on the rise.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

on the earlier pass it appears closed, strongest gales are well away from the centre subtropical?

edit typo

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have continued to increase overnight in
association with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. However, the shower and thunderstorm activity
continues to remain disorganized, and surface pressures have not
fallen any further. Upper-level winds are expected to be only
marginally conducive for development over the next couple of days.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to be more
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
still form early next week while the low moves slowly and
erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[TheEuropean]

For me 90L is looking better than yesterday:

https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/b5f ... 1230z.html
(click >play for satellite loop)

May be it's getting it's act together earlier than NHC says?

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

I agree with TheEuropean, this system looks like a tropical depression or storm already. If it can sustain the convection, it possibly became a tropical cyclone from 0 % chance today like Tina some days ago. There will be an ASCAT pass in this area within some hours that will be interesting and very useful if it pass over the system.

And while I writing this, the NHC raised the chanses to 40/60 %.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized
this morning in association with an area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. In addition, satellite data
and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become a
little better defined. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for additional development, only a small
increase in the organization of the low could result in the
formation of a tropical depression. This system is expected to move
slowly and erratically during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[NotoSans]

Looks like a TD to me. ASCAT shows that a closed circulation exists, and the convection are becoming better organized. I am quite shocked by the conservative probabilities from the NHC.

[NDG]

I agree, looks to be close to a TD this morning, NHC never should had brought chances down yesterday.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/799989723552956416

[wxman57]

It's definitely not subtropical. Appears to be a TD this morning, possibly a TS. Target is Nicaragua.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If 90L's on the verge of becoming a T.C it's organized substantially quicker than the models anticipated. The ECMWF doesn't even show a closed low until 72 hrs and shows a strong-TS landfall.

[Alyono]

Convection weakening

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%-70%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms have been
persisting near the center of an area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. In addition, satellite data
suggest that the circulation of the low continues to become better
defined. Although environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive for additional development, only a small increase in the
organization of the low could result in the formation of a tropical
depression. This low is expected to move slowly and erratically
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

The squadron will be active beginning on Sunday.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0120 PM EST SAT 19 NOVEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z NOVEMBER 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-177 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 20/1800Z                    A. 21/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
       C. 20/1315Z                    C. 21/0630Z
       D. 11.0N 80.0W                 D. 11.0N 80.0W
       E. 20/1745Z TO 20/2100Z        E. 21/1115Z TO 21/1400Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT            F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:  CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS.   

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF showing 90L becoming a hurricane again.