Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

One last stupid question....

Is there any correlation between the AO and tropical forcing in the PAC?

There's likely an indirect influence from ENSO in the Pacific but it's a lot of papers to read through to dig that out! Weak/moderate El Nino's favor -AO's the most I think.

[orangeblood]

Does anyone have access to the 18zgfs ensembles? If so，can someone post them please. 144hr frame. Should be 18 frame type thing

Precip is trending southward with this system...the biggest question we usually have around here is will there be enough moisture around by the time temps are cold enough for frozen precip

[Brent]

GFS already has freezing temps in the DFW metro by Wednesday evening

Mid 20s Thursday morning, even a freeze around Houston.

Mid 30s at mid afternoon Thursday

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Upper 30s at noon on Thursday in Houston

[Ntxw]

Canadian is around 16F for a low at DFW.

[Rgv20]

Crazy Canadian with upper 20s for the Mcallen area and mid to low 20s for my area!

[JayDT]

GFS already has freezing temps in the DFW metro by Wednesday evening

Mid 20s Thursday morning, even a freeze around Houston.

Mid 30s at mid afternoon Thursday

So the GFS is finally trending more towards the euro?

[Ntxw]

Precip is trending southward with this system...the biggest question we usually have around here is will there be enough moisture around by the time temps are cold enough for frozen precip

There is a 1045+ HP to the north, I think the cold will outrun the models. GFS has been bad trend wise (it's trending to the other models with temps). If the h5 vorticity digs a little further south..look out

I'm not sure if it's too cold but the Canadian has high temp barely getting to 30F next Thursday.

[Brent]

CMC is very close to having some freezing precip in DFW... definitely snow along the red river.

Oh and the GFS has another cold snap next weekend... winter is here guys! It warms up to the 50s Saturday then in the 30s on Sunday again.

[Ntxw]

1040+hp into Texas from a cold source region. I don't see how the GFS is even still that warm, as cold as it has been trending.

[Brent]

dejavu a few days later

[Rgv20]

1040+hp into Texas from a cold source region. I don't see how the GFS is even still that warm, as cold as it has been trending.

This kind of setup and strength of the HP has the potential to bring a widespread freeze to the Rio Grande Valley.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Dang, GFS keeps it cold the 11th thru 15th

[Ntxw]

1040+hp into Texas from a cold source region. I don't see how the GFS is even still that warm, as cold as it has been trending.

This kind of setup and strength of the HP has the potential to bring a widespread freeze to the Rio Grande Valley.

If there is a freeze down there it would qualify as a McFarland signature event. That's essentially what McFarland's paper was about, diagnostics aside. His focus mainly was the -EPO ridge but there is a snippet on the read about how an Aleutian ridge could drive cold air as well. Most notably in his paper that we might be able to reference was the December 17 freeze in 1964. We'll see, it's nice to have a frigid Canada backing it up.

[Brent]

I hope yall enjoyed those 60s today... might be awhile...

[JayDT]

1040+hp into Texas from a cold source region. I don't see how the GFS is even still that warm, as cold as it has been trending.

So it could be even colder than what the GFS is showing?

[Ntxw]

Curiously December 1964 showed up a few times recently on the analogs bunch.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Christmas 1964... can't really find anything. Explain

[Ntxw]

Christmas 1964... can't really find anything. Explain

It's a lesser outbreak than 1949, 1951, and 1962 for the rio grande. He mentioned it was a very close scare for damage of agriculture down that way though not as profound as the previous freezes.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Christmas 1964... can't really find anything. Explain

It's a lesser outbreak than 1949, 1951, and 1962 for the rio grande. He mentioned it was a very close scare for damage of agriculture down that way though not as profound as the previous freezes.

Ah thank you