Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

even with the warmth next weekend Christmas week is very cold this run

[starsfan65]

even with the warmth next weekend Christmas week is very cold this run

I heard on the news tonight it suppose to get cold next week.

[Brent]

even with the warmth next weekend Christmas week is very cold this run

I heard on the news tonight it suppose to get cold next week.

Models are not consistent with that. Still too early to tell how cold next week gets. It may only be seasonal if the front doesn't clear the state and then whatever it is moderates ahead of the next weekend front.

[Brent]

Merry Christmas!

[starsfan65]

Merry Christmas!

Ice Ice baby!!

[starsfan65]

even with the warmth next weekend Christmas week is very cold this run

I heard on the news tonight it suppose to get cold next week.

Models are not consistent with that. Still too early to tell how cold next week gets. It may only be seasonal if the front doesn't clear the state and then whatever it is moderates ahead of the next weekend front.

They better agree soon.

[Ntxw]

GFS is crazy. It's all limbo with the air mass next week. A lot of cold air to the north, mild zonal flow to the south. A little swing back and forth and it's wildly different. I

[Cpv17]

There's going to be a lot of cold in our source region. You figure it has to go somewhere, right?

[Brent]

Euro has highs Wednesday near 60 at DFW while OKC is struggling to get above freezing. Austin in the mid 70s. Front appears to come through Wednesday Night at DFW with a few hundredths of rain.

It's very similar to the GFS at 120, the front is between Dallas and Austin. The next frames is where the GFS stalls it then retreats it north.

Euro is gonna do the same... consensus tonight is not much of a front Wed/Thu.

[Cpv17]

Euro has highs Wednesday near 60 at DFW while OKC is struggling to get above freezing. Austin in the mid 70s. Front appears to come through Wednesday Night at DFW with a few hundredths of rain.

It's very similar to the GFS at 120, the front is between Dallas and Austin. The next frames is where the GFS stalls it then retreats it north.

It doesn't make sense to me how a front that strong could just stall out like that and then retreat back north not even making it halfway through the state.

[Brent]

at 168 hours the GFS/Euro agree, the torch is on for the state. The warmth goes into Kansas. Last run both models had mid 30s and some light precip lol

Edit Euro is faster with the next weekend arctic front entering the Panhandle then

Front is moving through DFW early Saturday, about a day ahead of the GFS.

Low 20s next Sunday morning at DFW. Highs near freezing just like last Euro run.

[Cpv17]

Well at least it looks like the front next weekend will push through the whole state unlike the one during the week. Doesn't look like anything out of the norm for southeast Texas though. A typical Artic front is what it's looking like at least for now. Nothing too crazy, but I'm sure the models will change 100 more times between now and then. The look the Euro had at hour 192 looked promising, but at hour 216 it shunts the core of the cold towards the Great Lakes region and here in Texas we get a modified version of cold air. I guess we need a better snowpack to our north maybe.

[A.V.]

It can snow if the above column is really cold and really deep while barely the lower few meters near the surface is above freezing. However here in Texas it is often the complete opposite during cold blasts, where the really cold air is at the surface while above it takes longer to cool.

This probably has to do with how warm the Gulf of Mexico is. However, I read somewhere that South Texas, in a rare snowfall, had the occurrence at 50F.

[Ntxw]

6z GFS is a little colder for the northeastern/eastern 2/3rds of the state of Thurs. Past several GFS runs had DFW in the 30s in including this run, the one that had 40s was 0z. Then it it warms up to 60s and 70s which I am inclined to believe because pressures are lower due to the incoming storm/trough in the SW kicking warm, moist air ahead of it at the same time an arctic front is moving south. Where those two meet is where wintry weather is, still uncertain what kicks out, when, and how much.

Then it keeps DFW near or below freezing for a couple of days before a cutoff low comes out for the Christmas period, which if that is the case then there would likely be a prolonged period of overrunning in very cold air. Which by then we are well beyond 240hrs.

[srainhoutx]

Knowing that there is a lot of chatter and the models are 'sniffing' some potential in the Christmas timeframe and if I were to draw up the perfect wishcast as a Christmas present, this is the pattern I want to see...

[Tammie]

Joe Bastardi on Twitter. I still can't post images :-/
https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastar ... 0402964480

[srainhoutx]

The overnight 00Z GFS and GFS Parallel guidance is suggesting a significant winter storm crossing the Central and Southern Plains with a lot of snow and possibly sleet/freezing rain extending across the Red River into Northern and NE Texas next weekend. Should this storm system verify, there would be a lot of snow on the ground to our North meaning less in the way of airmass modification as we head toward the week before Christmas.

[wxman57]

Move along, folks, nothing to see here next week (according to the overnight models). Neither model even has freezing temps for Houston over the next 10 days. Euro does predict sub-freezing temps for the DFW area next weekend - but NO snow across Texas.

Given that the models have so much run-to-run variance even 4-5 days out, I'd be careful about believing anything that you see in any run beyond the next 2-3 days.

[vbhoutex]

What would cause so much variance in the models this "close" to the purported event? Is it something to do with a changing pattern or are they seeing something in the mix that isn't obvious even at this point?

[SouthFLTropics]

Well I can see that the models act the same in winter in regards to development as they do in Hurricane season. No run to run consistency without a developed system. I'll look for trends but to find out if there will be a white Christmas somewhere I think we'll have to tune back in around the 22nd.