Texas Winter 2016-2017

[wxman57]

Houston has a good shot at breaking the record warm low record on Christmas, which was 67 set in 1942. The low at IAH could well be above 67.

Correction: Record high and warm low are 83 and 73, set last Christmas.

[Golf7070]

Michael Ventrice Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice
11h
North Pacific Dateline ridge is forecast to make another appearance in the 11-15d period. pic.twitter.com/NXLp5c6q4q
View photo ·
Paul Roundy Paul Roundy
@PaulRoundy1
11h
@MJVentrice Seems to be shifted a little west of the benchmark? Also, note the slow eastward propagation farther west.
View conversation ·

Ntxw or wxman57. Can someone tell me what this means please. Im not an expert like yall are but i am curious

[Brent]

Well at least we won't be alone in misery on Christmas

[wxman57]

Well at least we won't be alone in misery on Christmas

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_25.png

That's the spirit, Brent! Just substitute "joy" for "misery"... However, highs in the low to mid 30s in Minnesota on Christmas would qualify as "misery".

[Ntxw]

Oh dear, it seems we have made the heat miser angry with all this arctic air. We need to borrow his heat ways and cause a suddent stratospheric warming event...we need it now...

[Golf7070]

Oh dear, it seems we have made the heat miser angry with all this arctic air. We need to borrow his heat ways and cause a suddent stratospheric warming event...we need it now...

Ntxw，can u explain what that means i posted

[Ntxw]

Oh dear, it seems we have made the heat miser angry with all this arctic air. We need to borrow his heat ways and cause a suddent stratospheric warming event...we need it now...

Ntxw，can u explain what that means i posted

He seems to be pointing out what I've been noting about the Aleutian ridge showing up longer range. I'm not sure what Paul roundy is mentioning. Dateline ridge is the Aleutian ridge.

[Golf7070]

Oh dear, it seems we have made the heat miser angry with all this arctic air. We need to borrow his heat ways and cause a suddent stratospheric warming event...we need it now...

Ntxw，can u explain what that means i posted

He seems to be pointing out what I've been noting about the Aleutian ridge showing up longer range. I'm not sure what Paul roundy is mentioning. Dateline ridge is the Aleutian ridge.

I hope the alutian ridging isnt further west when it sets up. Not sure if that would be good or not. Or if its good then bring it on!!!

[Ntxw]

Ntxw，can u explain what that means i posted

He seems to be pointing out what I've been noting about the Aleutian ridge showing up longer range. I'm not sure what Paul roundy is mentioning. Dateline ridge is the Aleutian ridge.

I hope the alutian ridging isnt further west when it sets up. Not sure if that would be good or not. Or if its good then bring it on!!!

You want an Aleutian ridge that progresses east into -EPO over Alaska is preferable.

[Golf7070]

He seems to be pointing out what I've been noting about the Aleutian ridge showing up longer range. I'm not sure what Paul roundy is mentioning. Dateline ridge is the Aleutian ridge.

I hope the alutian ridging isnt further west when it sets up. Not sure if that would be good or not. Or if its good then bring it on!!!

You want an Aleutian ridge that progresses east into -EPO over Alaska is preferable.

Do you have any idea why all the teleconnections are turning against us? Is it the tropical forcing not favorable currently?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I hope the alutian ridging isnt further west when it sets up. Not sure if that would be good or not. Or if its good then bring it on!!!

You want an Aleutian ridge that progresses east into -EPO over Alaska is preferable.

Do you have any idea why all the teleconnections are turning against us? Is it the tropical forcing not favorable currently?

All that really matters to us is the EPO and its fluctuating.... not really against us much or for us much. Long range has it hanging out between 1sd and -1sd.

We can also receive cold via -AO, neutral to -PNA and +NAO ....

Things we hate to see is a very positive EPO and a very negative NAO.... both tend to move the cold away from our neck of the woods 95% of the time

With all of that said, the teleconnections aren't really horrible right now, they just aren't ripe to deliver cold in the mid range. The long range is showing some promise.

[Portastorm]

Thought I'd share a link with those of you who like to geek out on hyper technical weather information. Dr. Judah Cohen is one smart fellow. His blog is good reading:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[WeatherGuesser]

Things we hate to see is a very positive EPO and a very negative NAO.... both tend to move the cold away from our neck of the woods 95% of the time

So, that's what we DO want this time of year.

[Ntxw]

Do you have any idea why all the teleconnections are turning against us? Is it the tropical forcing not favorable currently?

ThunderstleetDream pretty much has the idea. It's not an awful pattern for long duration warmth, nor is it a great pattern for long duration cold. It's interchangeable, and short term swings of indices, it's back and forth. Quick hitting cold fronts with warm ups in between for Texas. The AO is the toughest to fight, it's been trending + the past couple of years (likely due to some influence of being in a solar max) while the EPO has done it's own thing when it wants. If you want a wholesale pattern shift and lock then you'd want the AO to go negative and stay negative from a major midwinter warming event, but that is no guaranty either as it could very well dump cold over Asia and/or Europe as it has done in the past. As long as we keep Canada cold and there are continuing shots of really cold air, eventually a storm will time itself. Thats how it works around here south of interstate 40, luck and timing.

[gpsnowman]

Well at least we won't be alone in misery on Christmas

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_25.png

Not good. That could lead to some serious snowpack melt in the warm areas. Yuck.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well, i figured with the Nina setup that we will have warmth in between the cold shots. Also, its ok to let the PV reload again, it has had a wild ride since Late Oct. Wait for the cold air to build up some and with some luck and MJO help, we can get a storm that slams texas!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Thought I'd share a link with those of you who like to geek out on hyper technical weather information. Dr. Judah Cohen is one smart fellow. His blog is good reading:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Reading this now. This is a great article. Also, this article is great, its an MJO update. Giving clues into what could happen within 2 weeks time. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.pdf

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Well, i figured with the Nina setup that we will have warmth in between the cold shots. Also, its ok to let the PV reload again, it has had a wild ride since Late Oct. Wait for the cold air to build up some and with some luck and MJO help, we can get a storm that slams texas!

Those are my thoughts. With all things being relative, Ninas are typically not our friends, but if you got to have one, this is the type of Nina that you want, where you don't have the MJO parked in the maritime. Weak ninas or cold neutral tend to be front loaded but with a 5 sd AO set, all it takes is one trigger to set a 6-8 week pattern of cold.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Things we hate to see is a very positive EPO and a very negative NAO.... both tend to move the cold away from our neck of the woods 95% of the time

So, that's what we DO want this time of year.

No... I get sick of the hellish 8-9 months we already have. I'm getting out of this concrete hell hole and going to Montana next week so I can have cold and snow.

[Brent]

Things we hate to see is a very positive EPO and a very negative NAO.... both tend to move the cold away from our neck of the woods 95% of the time

So, that's what we DO want this time of year.

No... I get sick of the hellish 8-9 months we already have. I'm getting out of this concrete hell hole and going to Montana next week so I can have cold and snow.

Lol I've been plotting to get away during the real hellhole, summer.

I originally had some winter plans but life happened. Maybe next year...