Texas Winter 2016-2017

[JDawg512]

I haven't been following the Pacific surface temps in a few weeks so don't know how strong this La Niña currently is but isn't it pretty weak? I would expect a bit more rain even if it is still below average this winter.

I'm the rain miser so the wetter the better, (but not too wet that it floods). Just wet enough to keep everything lush and green.

[stormlover2013]

Can't trust models this far out,now it's fun to model watch but how many times has models let us down this early lol...I mean let's watch the snow pack up north!!!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'll be landing in Billings, Montana in a few hours. I'll let you know how the snow pack looks.

[GalvestonWXGeek]

Meanwhile, on the West end of Galveston island, the fog is so thick you can slice it with a knife. But on the bright side, the redfish are running the beachfront channels making for excellent fun!

I'm (sort of) hoping we can dodge any more cold weather down here. That last cold was shocking to my system. Yuck.

[CaptinCrunch]

Yep you gotta Love Texas in December, the month started out about average, then we dropped to below average, stayed at the just below average till we get to the last 7 days of the month and POP, we are now back above average and will remain there for the remainder of the month. But just to give you an idea of a Texas December, we set our high and low temps for the month in a 6 day span.

HIGHEST: 80 ON 25
LOWEST: 16 ON 19

Good news is our weak La Nina conditions continue to move toward ENSO neutral state, and we may end the latest 3 month period of OND with a Neutral SST reading.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[ThunderSleetDreams]

My confidence in La Nina happening this Winter are about as close to zero as it can get without being zero. Never say never, but it does not look likely.

[Portastorm]

upload images

[Ntxw]

DFW may hit that 16 again the next 2-3 weeks, so the rollercoaster in the span of 4 weeks is astonishing

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS is much colder once again for Texas. It shows some frozen precip possible next week behind the strong front across portions of the northern half of the state.

[Portastorm]

Bazinga!

image

[ronyan]

I think people get too caught up on the surface depictions of models for events that are more than a week away.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I think people get too caught up on the surface depictions of models for events that are more than a week away.

While people shouldn't take surface depictions literally to the T, they can be a good guide to overall precip falling during a time frame. Where the freezing line sets up (within a couple hundred miles) can usually be determined within 3-4 days.

[Portastorm]

I think people get too caught up on the surface depictions of models for events that are more than a week away.

Keep in mind when we (including myself) post these images, we know full well that it may not come to pass. In fact, this far out it probably won't. But it's no different really than during tropical season when folks post images of CAT FIVE IN THE GULF!!!! ... it's more a matter of us thinking "well, this is interesting and kinda fun. Look at this model run."

If it's three days away from an event and the GFS and Euro agree on the event ... then I will get "caught up on the surface depiction." But for now, it's more a matter of fodder for discussion.

[Ntxw]

I think people get too caught up on the surface depictions of models for events that are more than a week away.

The cold will be driven by the -EPO/-WPO just like their + phases the past week produced warmth. Timing and # of fronts we will have to work out the details.

Cold blasts are easier to predict than frozen precip

[orangeblood]

GFS continues trending further south with a southern plains winter storm middle of next week....surface features will be widely variable but upper level pattern is becoming much more consistent. GFS really honed in on surface features for Northern plains Christmas storm from about 168 hrs out, almost within that time frame

[ronyan]

I think people get too caught up on the surface depictions of models for events that are more than a week away.

Keep in mind when we (including myself) post these images, we know full well that it may not come to pass. In fact, this far out it probably won't. But it's no different really than during tropical season when folks post images of CAT FIVE IN THE GULF!!!! ... it's more a matter of us thinking "well, this is interesting and kinda fun. Look at this model run."

If it's three days away from an event and the GFS and Euro agree on the event ... then I will get "caught up on the surface depiction." But for now, it's more a matter of fodder for discussion.

I agree and fully understand that. I was really responding to those saying the cold air was gone from the GFS. The 500mb pattern has been pretty consistent.

[Portastorm]

Well then, there you go!

And you've touched on something which I always mention and it's a piece of sage advice from wxman57 ... it's usually much better to focus on the 500mb projected flow and less on the surface depictions.

[Portastorm]

Here is a little image I put together showing that projected 500mb flow ... and yeah, both the GFS and Euro have been consistent pretty much in showing this for the timeframe of 1/4-1/6.

upload picture

[Ntxw]

AO and NAO will be better this round than mid December when they were near record positive. It helps to keep it cold longer to have them work with the EPO. No big Icelandic low. So our friends in the southeast may get in on the act with frontal passages

[ronyan]

The WPO forecast is now in more negative territory.