Texas Winter 2016-2017

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Bad skin day in N. Texas. Single digit dew points with temps near 60F. That's single digit RH's.

Yep, I'm reading 58 degrees with a dewpoint of 10. 15% relative humidity. Feels kinda nice.

[HockeyTx82]

Ok, I am back. Had some password issues but got it all sorted out. For what it's worth, with the last cold blast we got down to 11F here in Ponder, TX. My new Heat Pump unit got a workout for sure, kept us warm. I tried to run it in that Sunday morning, made it about one mile could not feel my hands or feet and turned back. That wind chill was out of control. My wife said I was crazy, I said I know and went for it. I just wanted to see what it felt like. If I had thicker gloves and socks might of been ok as everything else was warm.

Looking forward to what lies ahead. Sounds like things could be fun.

It's amazing how much difference a few miles make out where I am at. Past few cold days and nights temp may be 35 out in Denton along I 35, head 15 miles due west out where I am at and a good 5 degrees cooler. Need to make sure I stock up if the winter fun looks to be showing up as the board is talking about. Dollar General is walking distance but no fresh ground beef to make a pot of chili with

[srainhoutx]

What...no love for the 12Z Parallel GFS?

[orangeblood]

Well currently we have GFS ENS much more aggressive with precip, Euro ENS a little less aggressive and Canadian off its rocker for next week...to be expected in the 6-7 day range, this storm system is still well southwest of the Aleutians so plenty of corrections likely ahead

[Portastorm]

What...no love for the 12Z Parallel GFS?

That's right! Time to show it some love:

upload img

[Texas Snow]

AFDFWD

"Next week we continue to watch the arrival of our next arctic
intrusion with a potential for some wintry precip. Discrepancies
between the models impact our confidence in the precipitation
potential and type but the models are in pretty good agreement
(for now) that the front will arrive Tuesday evening. A large,
positively-tilted upper level trough will separate into two parts
with the western extent detaching over the western CONUS and then
swinging into the Southern Plains late next week. This large
trough will spread lift over the region that could aid in the
development of a wintry mix behind the arctic front Thursday-
Friday. The ECMWF is much drier and less aggressive with any
precip behind the front but still hints at the potential for
wintry precip. The GFS is much more aggressive with precipitation
suggesting a decent chance for snow. At this time, due to the
discrepancies in the properties of the air, timing, and precip
amount/type, will include a low chance for rain, freezing rain,
and snow in the end of this valid forecast period.

JLDunn"

[Portastorm]

Interesting comments from NWS Austin/San Antonio in their afternoon AFD. I concur with their take that it's waaaay too early to be guessing on P-types.

On Wednesday, things will begin to quickly change as arctic air
once again pours into the southern plains. This has been a pretty
typical La Nina winter so far for South-Central Texas with many
days seeing above normal temperatures and a couple snaps of cold
arctic air which is what looks to happen again for the middle to
late period of next week. The upper air pattern for Tuesday and
Wednesday will show a very amplified and wide ridge of high
pressure off the western CONUS extending up to near 70 degrees
latitude and a deep low to the east of the ridge centered near the
4 corners region. This upper air pattern is very favorable for
arctic intrusions and we should begin to see the colder air
arrive to the region by Wednesday morning. Things could get close
to being problematic as the upper low over the 4 corners begins to
move east and synoptic lift overruns the cold arctic airmass
Thursday into Friday which should lead to precipitation production.
Because we are so far out, there are many run to run differences
and even large variability within each run`s different ensemble
members regarding the exact timing of the best chances of
and how cold temperatures will actually get. Although this
pattern is favorable for at least the chance of some wintry
precipitation somewhere in the CWA, one should not look at a
particular model solution as truth but study the many available
runs in the suite of guidance and overall trends as these
solutions are likely to change from run to run over the next
several days.

[Brent]

GFS much more suppressed/drier with the Thursday storm

Pretty much too warm anyway

[Ntxw]

GFS 18z is cold enough at 850 for n tx but its dry with the southern disturbances. But it does bring snow once the main vorticity comes out

[somethingfunny]

I guess it's time to ratchet up the ICECON level to 3... Washing all of my winter clothes from the last blast, making sure my tires are in good shape, checking my antifreeze and that sort of stuff. At ICECON 2 (if this storm is still consistently modeled by Monday) I'll pull out the list of people who didn't tip me (generously) for delivering pizzas to them during the last winter storm, and I'll finally organize it into an easy-to-post list at my store so we can deny them service if it actually snows again

This is a good time to stock up on hot cocoa and chilimaking materials

[ronyan]

The GFS and Euro are going in opposite directions for the temps in my area. Will be interesting to see how this resolves.

[Cpv17]

Big difference in temps Euro vs GFS

[stormlover2013]

Guys it's still way early!! Models do so bad with this...we won't have a trend till Sunday or Monday

[orangeblood]

Guys it's still way early!! Models do so bad with this...we won't have a trend till Sunday or Monday

This....we won't know much until the North Pacific Block begins building over the next 48-72 hrs. Every model run is a WAG until that point

[TheProfessor]

I want to give everyone an update on how school is going so far. I got my GPA over a 3.0 this semester(finished with a 3.54 this fall), Physics Electromagnetism destroyed me freshmen year. I also got an A in my intro Atmospheric class this past semester. I will be taking Boundary layer climatology and Synoptic meteorology lab next semester. I'm also applying for the Hollings scholarship so wish me luck!

[ronyan]

I want to give everyone an update on how school is going so far. I got my GPA over a 3.0 this semester(finished with a 3.54 this fall), Physics Electromagnetism destroyed me freshmen year. I also got an A in my intro Atmospheric class this past semester. I will be taking Boundary layer climatology and Synoptic meteorology lab next semester. I'm also applying for the Hollings scholarship so wish me luck!

Congrats Professor, good work. I considered doing a degree in meteorology but decided instead on Computer Science. I'm now one year into the Master's program at University of Houston.

[Snowman67]

I want to give everyone an update on how school is going so far. I got my GPA over a 3.0 this semester(finished with a 3.54 this fall), Physics Electromagnetism destroyed me freshmen year. I also got an A in my intro Atmospheric class this past semester. I will be taking Boundary layer climatology and Synoptic meteorology lab next semester. I'm also applying for the Hollings scholarship so wish me luck!

Great job Professor! Keep up the good work!

[Portastorm]

I guess it's time to ratchet up the ICECON level to 3... Washing all of my winter clothes from the last blast, making sure my tires are in good shape, checking my antifreeze and that sort of stuff. At ICECON 2 (if this storm is still consistently modeled by Monday) I'll pull out the list of people who didn't tip me (generously) for delivering pizzas to them during the last winter storm, and I'll finally organize it into an easy-to-post list at my store so we can deny them service if it actually snows again

This is a good time to stock up on hot cocoa and chilimaking materials

I'm glad I tip my pizza folks. Now I know how they think.

I like your ICECON levels, somethingfunny ... good stuff!

[bubba hotep]

Not a lot of confidence in what the models are showing beyond D4 or 5. Different day, same song.

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/814621735760838656

[vbhoutex]

I guess it's time to ratchet up the ICECON level to 3... Washing all of my winter clothes from the last blast, making sure my tires are in good shape, checking my antifreeze and that sort of stuff. At ICECON 2 (if this storm is still consistently modeled by Monday) I'll pull out the list of people who didn't tip me (generously) for delivering pizzas to them during the last winter storm, and I'll finally organize it into an easy-to-post list at my store so we can deny them service if it actually snows again

This is a good time to stock up on hot cocoa and chilimaking materials

I'm glad I tip my pizza folks. Now I know how they think.

I like your ICECON levels, somethingfunny ... good stuff!

Besides being the type of person I am(your guess!!LOL!!) my son-in-law has been in the food service industry for years and is now a manager at the Salt Grass Steak House in Shenandoah. I learned, even before I knew him, how it should be done. Will be very interesting as this scenario unfolds next week. May be some surprises for a few people. More later!!