Texas Winter 2016-2017

[JayDT]

So basically in this run, DFW would be getting a little of all types of winter weather?? Or are we talking about just rain and snow?

[Brent]

Oh this run is so close to being something huge. Big snows north and northwest of DFW Thursday afternoon with a battleground over the metro

Hopefully the DFW area can end up included in the big snows when all is said and done.

We're just glad it still has the storm...we can settle the fine details later. We just need to keep it around long enough.

this * I just wanna see it stay consistent til Sunday/Monday then we can start getting specific.

[Brent]

Through 186

[Ntxw]

So basically in this run, DFW would be getting a little of all types of winter weather?? Or are we talking about just rain and snow?

To me, if I were using profiles looks either rain or snow since the surface cold is lagging the 850 0C. For an ice event you'd see the opposite. But who knows if the model has the temps right or not at this range.

[JayDT]

Oh this run is so close to being something huge. Big snows north and northwest of DFW Thursday afternoon with a battleground over the metro

Hopefully the DFW area can end up included in the big snows when all is said and done.

We're just glad it still has the storm...we can settle the fine details later. We just need to keep it around long enough.

True, very true. It's being surprisingly consistent.. Lets say it keeps it around, by when can we actually start believing and start to get excited about this system? It's kind of hard for me to contain my excitement already lol.

[Brent]

Hopefully the DFW area can end up included in the big snows when all is said and done.

We're just glad it still has the storm...we can settle the fine details later. We just need to keep it around long enough.

True, very true. It's being surprisingly consistent.. Lets say it keeps it around, by when can we actually start believing and start to get excited about this system? It's kind of hard for me to contain my excitement already lol.

I wanna see the rain event Sunday Night/Monday morning pan out first... honestly, the precip has been the hard part lately. We've had the cold... so if the storm is still consistent then and the rain verifies then we can really start believing imo

[Ntxw]

True, very true. It's being surprisingly consistent.. Lets say it keeps it around, by when can we actually start believing and start to get excited about this system? It's kind of hard for me to contain my excitement already lol.

The system will be in the Pac NW by New Year's day. We'll have a pretty good idea by then.

Oddly though, surface wise GFS is hardly bitterly cold which is why it's wetter than the euro I think. Upper 20s for DFW to near 30 isn't that cold for an arctic blast. But it's marginally enough for snow, nothing like how cold the Euro was.

[Brent]

True, very true. It's being surprisingly consistent.. Lets say it keeps it around, by when can we actually start believing and start to get excited about this system? It's kind of hard for me to contain my excitement already lol.

The system will be in the Pac NW by New Year's day. We'll have a pretty good idea by then.

Oddly though, surface wise GFS is hardly bitterly cold which is why it's wetter than the euro I think. Upper 20s for DFW to near 30 isn't that cold for an arctic blast. But it's marginally enough for snow, nothing like how cold the Euro was.

yeah I'm figuring if it's super cold like the Euro moisture would probably be limited kind of like 2 weeks ago... but who knows. That seems to be the key difference here, 6 days out

[Ntxw]

At least the Crazy Canadian has somewhat come back to its senses...

[mcheer23]

At least the Crazy Canadian has somewhat come back to its senses...

Even shows some frozen precip over SE TX

[Brent]

At least the Crazy Canadian has somewhat come back to its senses...

Even shows some frozen precip over SE TX

I think wxman57 might get some ice pellets along his bike route...

[Cpv17]

This Artic blast looks to be pretty serious according to the CPC. I think just about anyone in Texas could be in play here for some winter precip. Still a long ways to go in figuring this one out so for now I'm just trying to be optimistic about the situation lol

[bubba hotep]

One thing to watch is the SW that ejects out from Texas on Sunday night. The Euro takes the main energy NE towards the Lakes while the 00z GFS slides it out over the Carolinas. That plays a role in how the main trough develops, we want a piece of energy to hang back over the Southwest and not come out as one big trough, like the 12z Euro.

[Ntxw]

One thing to watch is the SW that ejects out from Texas on Sunday night. The Euro takes the main energy NE towards the Lakes while the 00z GFS slides it out over the Carolinas. That plays a role in how the main trough develops, we want a piece of energy to hang back over the Southwest and not come out as one big trough, like the 12z Euro.

That's a really good point. I like that 500mb map, especially that GOA/Alaskan ridge. Think we've seen it before.


Block in the North Atlantic looks better this round though.

[Portastorm]

The last four GFS op runs at the 500 mb level show enough diversity that I wouldn't get hung up on surface depictions just yet. I was just looking them over and when comparing you can see plenty of small differences.

The level of cold too seems to change slightly with every run.

[South Texas Storms]

The last four GFS op runs at the 500 mb level show enough diversity that I wouldn't get hung up on surface depictions just yet. I was just looking them over and when comparing you can see plenty of small differences.

The level of cold too seems to change slightly with every run.

Uh oh, Porta is up late model watching! You know things are getting real when that happens.

Interested to see what the 0z Euro shows soon.

[Portastorm]

Ha! ha! Yes, when I'm up model watching this late you know something is up.

[Ntxw]

The adrenaline from seeing scenic SW Austin in a flurry of freezing drizzle from the 0z GFS draws Porta in. It ain't a winter storm until Austin gets freezing drizzle.

[orangeblood]

0Z GFS ENS wetter/colder than operational...numerous members showing a very potent winter storm starting late Wednesday night

[TheProfessor]

I think it would be hilarious if Texas continues to hold my highest storm totals for one storm. Central Ohio seems to miss out on most of the bigger storms in every direction. The one time they did get the jackpot was in 2008, which was 20 inches of snow, I would have loved to see that. The cool thing is when you get Northwest flow(I know you guys hate that here) and you can get multiple clipper systems that can drop 3-6 inches of snow, you get them in quick successions and you end up with a foot of snow on the ground, not at cool as a mega snow storm or blizzard, but still pretty cool. unfortunately I haven't even experienced that to the fullest yet due to last year El Nino, which had less NW flow and when there was NW flow the temps were warmer and dendritic growth was poor so there were low ratios so a clipper wouldn't drop more than 2 inches typically and they were usually rather spread out so the snow would melt.