Texas Winter 2016-2017
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
GFS is still pretty unimpressed. Canadian is a little positive, and pretty cold. Euro yet to run.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Anyone else notice the PDS TOR sigs on some of the models with this storm coming through today? I know tomorrow is enhanced, but we have a robust 5% chance in our area today....And Happy New Years everyone!!!
0 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
TexasF6 wrote:Anyone else notice the PDS TOR sigs on some of the models with this storm coming through today? I know tomorrow is enhanced, but we have a robust 5% chance in our area today....And Happy New Years everyone!!!
It will be interesting to watch the development late tonight out in west Texas and to see if the higher-based storms morph into something more severe with bases closer to the boundary layer. As it is, we expect a hail threat and maybe some isolated straight-line wind threat here in the general Austin area.
0 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38106
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Euro much different than the GFS it appears, the energy is diving through the Rockies on Thursday
DFW upper 40s Wednesday again and still above freezing Thursday morning
More reasonable 40s on Thursday this run
Colder Thursday Night but dry so far
Looks like just dry and cold
DFW upper 40s Wednesday again and still above freezing Thursday morning
More reasonable 40s on Thursday this run

Colder Thursday Night but dry so far
Looks like just dry and cold
0 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
The EPO forecast for Jan 3 is now -420, how many SDs below normal is it if it were to reach that value? I believe we're now ~ -200 EPO. Really I'm asking what is the standard deviation value. I have the full historical data set but it seems a bit unwieldy for copying into excel.
I think wxman laid it out well on a previous page, the source region for the cold is usually the biggest factor for how cold it gets downstream. Snow pack also quite important between the source and destination.
I think wxman laid it out well on a previous page, the source region for the cold is usually the biggest factor for how cold it gets downstream. Snow pack also quite important between the source and destination.
0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
ronyan wrote:The EPO forecast for Jan 3 is now -420, how many SDs below normal is it if it were to reach that value? I believe we're now ~ -200 EPO. Really I'm asking what is the standard deviation value. I have the full historical data set but it seems a bit unwieldy for copying into excel.
I think wxman laid it out well on a previous page, the source region for the cold is usually the biggest factor for how cold it gets downstream. Snow pack also quite important between the source and destination.
I've always been under the assumption that the value is pretty much the standard deviations because the reading is basically the anomaly against the mean
-420 if it happens would be a pretty astounding value
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Well there must be some conversion factor between the value and the SD at least. It can't be 420 SDs (maybe 4.2?). I may do some more digging on that.
0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
ronyan wrote:Well there must be some conversion factor between the value and the SD at least. It can't be 420 SDs. I may do some more digging on that.
4SD's below normal
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
davidiowx wrote:What's the Euro sayin?
Cold later this week, perhaps similar to what we saw in December but mostly dry for the run. Warm up after, and towards the end of the run cross polar flow in place really cold air in Western Canada.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3714
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Interesting reversal on the 12Z Euro ENS package, over half of its members now showing frozen precip for North Texas later this week (mean of 0.5 inch snow @ DFW)...almost doubled from the previous run. Tonight's package should be the fork in the road b/w storm or no storm
2 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38106
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
I want the winter storm back...
I had enough cold and dry 2 weeks ago

Last edited by Brent on Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
I remember posting some days ago back that a pattern like this the risk is everything may slide east. Over the past several days that's what the models have trended to. That dip in the NAO couldn't have had worse timing.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38106
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
We've just had no luck lately I mean even the cold in December we still finished warmer than normal and we can't get any moisture when it is cold. I really hope climo wins out and the best of winter is ahead but I'm just not terribly optimistic after what December was supposed to be
0 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Brent wrote:We've just had no luck lately I mean even the cold in December we still finished warmer than normal and we can't get any moisture when it is cold. I really hope climo wins out and the best of winter is ahead but I'm just not terribly optimistic after what December was supposed to be
What really did December in was the overnight lows the last week or so. Several times the + anomalies skyrocketed because the lows were warmer than what the average high was supposed to be. While the 80s were painful, it was the lows that really did the month in. 70s and near 80s gets you about 10-15F above normal maybe 20. But 50s for lows gets you to 30 above normal.
As the theme for some years now, the overnight lows for DFW continues to warm.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
orangeblood wrote:Interesting reversal on the 12Z Euro ENS package, over half of its members now showing frozen precip for North Texas later this week (mean of 0.5 inch snow @ DFW)...almost doubled from the previous run. Tonight's package should be the fork in the road b/w storm or no storm
This jumped out at me when looking over things this evening, was it a blip or will we see a trend in the 00z guidance?
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Show is getting started out West:


0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 39 guests