Texas Winter 2016-2017

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2741 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:06 pm

There's still plenty of time for the models to change to more favorable conditions for snow across Texas. Keeping faith here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2742 Postby TexasF6 » Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:15 pm

I notice the trend of the HP cell strengthening the last 3 euro runs. The snow line is trending our way. The temps in Northern Canada are looking colder. There is also new cold pooling in Siberia. Bastardi said there was major feedback in the American models and a few of it its friends.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2743 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:17 pm

Btw for you seasonal long range folks, there are no longer any equatorial ENSO regions below -0.5C on the weekly readings. The La Nada will probably end pretty soon and CFSv2 amongst others are hinting at possible return of El Nino. But at this stage the best forecast would be warming to +neutral by late spring into early summer. At depths the equatorial Pacific near the dateline already has 1-2C above normal values.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2744 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:21 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:is it Friday yet lol

I feel like it's already been forever we've been tracking this storm and it still seems forever from now


It has been a while, there were rumblings of front and precip for this period the day after Christmas some 30+ pages ago.


yes I remember when the signals were there 300+ hours out(and I was a big skeptic lol) and the fact we're still talking about tells me not to write anything off...
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2745 Postby TexasBreeze » Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:Btw for you seasonal long range folks, there are no longer any equatorial ENSO regions below -0.5C on the weekly readings. The La Nada will probably end pretty soon and CFSv2 amongst others are hinting at possible return of El Nino. But at this stage the best forecast would be warming to +neutral by late spring into early summer. At depths the equatorial Pacific near the dateline already has 1-2C above normal values.


Started 2017 with almost a couple inches of rain and this should bode well for keeping things more moist for the spring. The today system reminded me of a spring nino low rider with warmth behind it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2746 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:44 pm

Good thing about getting closer is, we can now look at LaLaland NAM! It won't go out quite to the period where the storm is in Texas tonight but we can compare 5h vorticity out in the Rockies to see if it's more amplified like the GFS or elongated like the Euro
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2747 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:58 pm

NAM looks more like the Euro than the GFS to me but it is the 84 hour NAM
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2748 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:30 pm

Drinking a beer, watching a college football bowl game, and waiting for the 0Z GFS with hopes of snow trends dancing in my head. This is how the New Year is meant to be.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2749 Postby amawea » Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:38 pm

Texas Snow wrote:Drinking a beer, watching a college football bowl game, and waiting for the 0Z GFS with hopes of snow trends dancing in my head. This is how the New Year is meant to be.


Yes it is! Cold weather and good beer! And football!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2750 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:03 pm

Light snow in DFW Friday evening again on the 0z GFS.

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2751 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:08 pm

Not as amped up NE of us but just a general snowfall

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2752 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:17 pm

GFS definitely looks more like the Euro. All of the globals generally are coming to a consensus (if you consider it that). Though I am quite optimistic as even the Euro wasn't terrible (compared to some days ago). If we can ring out some moisture it would be a nice little event for us. Euro had the band just slightly south. Storm 1st, ring out moisture 2nd
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2753 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:19 pm

Looks like a coastal low tries to develop this could be good for upper Texas/sw la
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2754 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:23 pm

Brent wrote:Not as amped up NE of us but just a general snowfall


Folks in the southeast must be pulling their hairs out after seeing the GFS bullseye of a foot before:lol:. You never want to be in the strike zone 5 days out!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2755 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:25 pm

CMC looks to agree... 1-2" in most of N TX including DFW

and yeah, the GFS has really gone down on totals in the SE. I knew that was coming...
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2756 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:29 pm

Tomorrow's runs will be fascinating as we start to close in on 72 hours. The trends today offer hope as they start to converge, but we are just outside the window. Be sure to check S2K or your favorite model as soon as you wake up and frequently throughout the day 8-)
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2757 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:32 pm

Still need to push that snow line a little further south towards KAUS
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2758 Postby Snowman67 » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:Still need to push that snow line a little further south towards KAUS


While you're at it, go ahead and push it into SE Texas :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2759 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:58 pm

Well we've got both the GFS and CMC showing around 1-2 inches of snow across the northern half of North Texas, CMC is around 12 hrs earlier than GFS...next up King Euro
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2760 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:00 am

CMC drops the hammer behind the snow and has 8 degrees at DFW Saturday morning. :lol: The snow on the CMC falls Friday morning mostly whereas the GFS is Friday Night
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