Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Cerlin]

Wow that's a good bit of ice on the GFS.

[Brent]

[Texas Snow]

00Z Temps REALLY borderline all day Saturday through midday Sunday. If the trend continues could be historic ice storm in population centers from Dallas to Austin or just could be really cold rain. Lots of model watching this week for sure.

*Above just based on this run, don't freak out

Also when temps are that borderline when there is a warm nose aloft with heavy precip and 30-32 type temps at surface, often that relatively warm rain raises surface temps. Again, lots to keep an eye on, should be fun.

[Ntxw]

[Brent]

1.21" of ice here. No thanks.

[longhornweather]

Looks like the ice stays just northwest of Austin as of now, right?

[Ntxw]

Canadian after being unimpressed thus far is starting to get there

[aggiecutter]

Anything over 1" of ice accumulation would be catastrophic. I lived through one of those ice storms in December of 2000. The Weather Channel rated it the 7th worst ice storm in American history. The piney woods of NE Texas was about the worst place a devastating ice storm could occur. The only saving grace in the DFW area is that there isn't a lot foliage.

[Ntxw]

The HP is building from the air mass that has origins from Siberia, via cross polar flow occurring now from the -WPO. I'd bet the farm GFS is underplaying the temps.

[bubba hotep]

The HP is building from the air mass that has origins from Siberia, via cross polar flow occurring now from the -WPO. I'd bet the farm GFS is underplaying the temps.

Taking the 00z GFS verbatim and only adjusting temps downward... Wow, that is a disastrous setup. FWD will be under the gun this week, if the models keep this as a possibility.

[Ntxw]

The HP is building from the air mass that has origins from Siberia, via cross polar flow occurring now from the -WPO. I'd bet the farm GFS is underplaying the temps.

Taking the 00z GFS verbatim and only adjusting temps downward... Wow, that is a disastrous setup. FWD will be under the gun this week, if the models keep this as a possibility.

I'm hoping S/W upstream comes in faster and phase a bit we can switch it to sleet and snow. Still a lot of time yet, if by Tuesday or Weds and we're still talking about this then I'd be worried. Convergence of the 3 jets usually spells high impact precipitation events.

[Snowman67]

Looks like the 00z GFS is trending towards the Euro. Not sure what I think about this upcoming system, it wouldn't be typical for a Nina but we might be seeing the start of the Nina pattern breakdown.

It's definitely a fickle forecast. It will be very moist though with the storm train. That big arctic high up north has continued to trend more impressive as the window got closer and with the SE ridge in place, it's definitely worth watching.

GFS has some strong winds with it to boot.

Is there a possibility this brings another round of freezing temps to SE Texas? A week from yesterday, almost no official forecast had temps below freezing for my area for this current cold snap. Then a few days later most forecasts had us around freezing, and kept trending colder each day. They kept lowering the forecast temps all the way until late last night and we ended up around 20F. Guess this shows how hard it is to predict how cold surface temps will be with these shallow cold air masses a week in advance.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the 00z GFS is trending towards the Euro. Not sure what I think about this upcoming system, it wouldn't be typical for a Nina but we might be seeing the start of the Nina pattern breakdown.

It's definitely a fickle forecast. It will be very moist though with the storm train. That big arctic high up north has continued to trend more impressive as the window got closer and with the SE ridge in place, it's definitely worth watching.

GFS has some strong winds with it to boot.

Is there a possibility this brings another round of freezing temps to SE Texas? A week from yesterday, almost no official forecast had temps below freezing for my area for this current cold snap. Then a few days later most forecasts had us around freezing, and kept trending colder each day. They kept lowering the forecast temps all the way until late last night and we ended up around 20F. Guess this shows how hard it is to predict how cold surface temps will be with these shallow cold air masses a week in advance.

GFS has been the worst at it all winter. It sees the cold up north but it keeps trying to shunt it, or bottle it. But the cold powers through anyway. Certainly possible it could be colder.

[Texas Snow]

Has anyone compared the accuracy rates between the GFS Op and the Parallel? Just curious short/med/long range how it is doing since it may become operational in May.

[Brent]

Has anyone compared the accuracy rates between the GFS Op and the Parallel? Just curious short/med/long range how it is doing since it may become operational in May.

I have heard the GFS para is almost scoring as good as the Euro in other places

FWD must have been watching the GFS frames lol

[Texas Snow]

Very interesting they even hinted this far out.

Here is the text that accompanied that graphic:

It's still a week away...but computer models are showing another potential storm system by next Saturday. There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty but it appears that another cold front will move through the region late next week with a strong upper level disturbance approaching after the front moves through. This could result in areas of cold rain. We will continue to monitor the temperatures behind this front with precipitation chances.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Very interesting they even hinted this far out.

They probably saw the recent Euro runs. Euro has been hinting at it the past day or so. GFS went on board today and Canadian this evening. With ensemble support it's at least worth a closer look

The signal for next weekend has been around for a bit now; Jan 15th +/-

[Brent]

Euro through Saturday Afternoon is very warm and wet(though not nearly as wet as last run)... temps in the 60s

Ice storm is far from DFW so far

[Ntxw]

Big shortwave along the US/Mexican border by hr 144 CA/AZ. Storm is real at least

[Brent]

Ice storm in OKC Saturday... temps starting to fall in DFW, still raining

Temps plunge Saturday Night but precip appears to mostly end before it gets cold enough