Texas Winter 2016-2017

[CaptinCrunch]

[Portastorm]

NWS Fort Worth did a real nice job with that social media graphic. That is the kind of communication which really connects with folks regardless of their meteorological acumen. What a great office y'all have.

Meanwhile, my man Dr. Judah Cohen had an interesting tweet this morning which makes me believe *someone* in the lower latitudes is going to get real cold in the near future:

screen capture

[wxman57]

Resting your hopes of winter's return on the 16-day GFS panel is a true sign of desperation. I'm sure we'll see more sub-40 temps in Houston later this winter, probably the first week of February. Before then, I don't know...

[Ntxw]

Worry not my cold mongering friends. We will not raise the white flag early this year. Daily SOI has gone negative and it may go very negative in the double digits. We are thinking big, bigger than winter. In fact we may stretch this SOI to kick off El Nino and spoil summer . Revenge of Christmas past will come. Before that though, Feb may actually resemble more of weak El Nino than the past two months. The Nina is on it's last legs and the +PDO will win out. It ain't ova

1 Jan 2017 1012.73 1002.85 24.83 1.69 -1.13
2 Jan 2017 1013.61 1001.20 36.75 3.15 -0.77
3 Jan 2017 1011.18 1000.30 29.54 4.20 -0.57
4 Jan 2017 1010.13 1000.60 23.18 4.76 -0.45
5 Jan 2017 1009.94 1003.15 10.27 4.97 -0.45
6 Jan 2017 1010.61 1004.80 5.66 5.12 -0.37
7 Jan 2017 1010.09 1003.90 7.45 5.12 -0.26
8 Jan 2017 1010.84 1003.20 14.28 5.37 -0.08
9 Jan 2017 1012.24 1003.40 19.93 6.08 0.21
10 Jan 2017 1012.86 1004.05 19.79 6.64 0.58
11 Jan 2017 1011.77 1005.30 8.77 6.89 0.88
12 Jan 2017 1010.07 1005.70 -1.13 6.95 1.15
13 Jan 2017 1009.60 1005.70 -3.34 6.94 1.26

[PTrackerLA]

Chiming in here, this winter has been ridiculous here in southern Louisiana. As someone mentioned in this thread, there seems to be no middle ground/normal temp day. We run 15-25 degrees above normal or it's a quick shot down to freezing (or like last weekend down to a hard freeze.) I spent last week snow skiing out west and came home to most plants in my yard dead and we don't even drop into the 50's at night . The temps felt nice for a day after experiencing -21 degrees in Utah but some seasonally cool weather would be nice at some point before the long run to summer begins in March. Looks like we might get some relief by next weekend, but until then we have this nasty, humid, muggy mid-winter conditions. I admire those who can enjoy this weather but I find it disgusting .

Ok rant over!

[Yukon Cornelius]

I've noticed the freezing rain advisories and winter weather has been inching closer and closer to the river since last night. With areas just south of the red river sitting at around 30 degrees, the precipitation coming could make for some nasty trouble and catch a lot of people off guard since we all have been told that we are in the clear for any type of frozen precipitation. The temp has dropped from 33 this morning to 30 as of right now.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I've noticed the freezing rain advisories and winter weather has been inching closer and closer to the river since last night. With areas just south of the red river sitting at around 30 degrees, the precipitation coming could make for some nasty trouble and catch a lot of people off guard since we all have been told that we are in the clear for any type of frozen precipitation. The temp has dropped from 33 this morning to 30 as of right now.

I envy you right now. It's ball gravy hot and nasty in Montgomery County right now.

By the way, I loved the Sitka gear. Went skiing in below zero weather and enjoyed Yellowknife. Those Merino Wool thermals and ballistic beanie are toasty!

[Ralph's Weather]

The front has lifted just a bit so it is fully north of Lindale now so back in the 70s for us.

[Snowman67]

Worry not my cold mongering friends. We will not raise the white flag early this year. Daily SOI has gone negative and it may go very negative in the double digits. We are thinking big, bigger than winter. In fact we may stretch this SOI to kick off El Nino and spoil summer . Revenge of Christmas past will come. Before that though, Feb may actually resemble more of weak El Nino than the past two months. The Nina is on it's last legs and the +PDO will win out. It ain't ova

1 Jan 2017 1012.73 1002.85 24.83 1.69 -1.13
2 Jan 2017 1013.61 1001.20 36.75 3.15 -0.77
3 Jan 2017 1011.18 1000.30 29.54 4.20 -0.57
4 Jan 2017 1010.13 1000.60 23.18 4.76 -0.45
5 Jan 2017 1009.94 1003.15 10.27 4.97 -0.45
6 Jan 2017 1010.61 1004.80 5.66 5.12 -0.37
7 Jan 2017 1010.09 1003.90 7.45 5.12 -0.26
8 Jan 2017 1010.84 1003.20 14.28 5.37 -0.08
9 Jan 2017 1012.24 1003.40 19.93 6.08 0.21
10 Jan 2017 1012.86 1004.05 19.79 6.64 0.58
11 Jan 2017 1011.77 1005.30 8.77 6.89 0.88
12 Jan 2017 1010.07 1005.70 -1.13 6.95 1.15
13 Jan 2017 1009.60 1005.70 -3.34 6.94 1.26

Yes! We had a lovely 22F surprise for Wxman57 a few weeks ago when the models a a few days out were showing barely down to freezing in his area. We have yet another surprise to deliver to him this winter!

[Agua]

Chiming in here, this winter has been ridiculous here in southern Louisiana. As someone mentioned in this thread, there seems to be no middle ground/normal temp day. We run 15-25 degrees above normal or it's a quick shot down to freezing (or like last weekend down to a hard freeze.) I spent last week snow skiing out west and came home to most plants in my yard dead and we don't even drop into the 50's at night . The temps felt nice for a day after experiencing -21 degrees in Utah but some seasonally cool weather would be nice at some point before the long run to summer begins in March. Looks like we might get some relief by next weekend, but until then we have this nasty, humid, muggy mid-winter conditions. I admire those who can enjoy this weather but I find it disgusting .

Ok rant over!

Agree 110%. I pay several K every year for my duck club dues. Even in North Mississippi where my camp is, there have been two, non-holiday weekends since Thanksgiving where the temps were anything approaching tolerable hunting weather (overnight lows in <40). There are only 3 more weekends left, including this one (which is obviously lost). I can work in the yard, "honey-dos" 10 months out of the year, yet that looks like my weekend in what should be prime time hunting season. This weather is absolutely gross.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I've noticed the freezing rain advisories and winter weather has been inching closer and closer to the river since last night. With areas just south of the red river sitting at around 30 degrees, the precipitation coming could make for some nasty trouble and catch a lot of people off guard since we all have been told that we are in the clear for any type of frozen precipitation. The temp has dropped from 33 this morning to 30 as of right now.

I envy you right now. It's ball gravy hot and nasty in Montgomery County right now.

By the way, I loved the Sitka gear. Went skiing in below zero weather and enjoyed Yellowknife. Those Merino Wool thermals and ballistic beanie are toasty!

That's great to hear! Sitka gear is honestly the most amazing stuff I've found. You stay warm without looking like Randy from A Christmas Story.

[aggiecutter]

Remember my post a couple days ago about those east of a Paris to Sulphur Springs line not being affected by the low level cold air and the reason why:

[bubba hotep]

Lots of uncertainty in the models after this current system moves out of Texas. At least it should be an unsettled pattern with a couple of systems to track but lots of questions about timing, moisture return, cold air, etc. The models are at least in good agreement over this:



That leads to higher than normal, IMHO, confidence in another big -EPO in the longer range. Then does the pattern repeat or does it finally break down with help from the MJO and warming ENSO regions?

[weatherdude1108]

Just saw this story. Apparently a random weak tornado formed this morning near Walburg, TX, south of Jarrell and north of Georgetown.

The morning showers interacted with a stationary front, creating some small rotation.

http://kxan.com/2017/01/13/weak-tornado ... iamson-co/

[srainhoutx]

I am seeing more indications that a Major Hemispheric Pattern change may well be possible as we enter the late January/early February timeframe. The Ensembles as well as Teleconnection Indices and a favorable MJO suggest colder and potentially stormier weather arrives late month into the time that pesky rodent "predicts" whether Winter will linger or Spring arrives early.

[Tireman4]

Question for Srain or Wxman57, when will the winds switch to get rid of the Juniper Ash? Thank you..Signed the Suffering

[srainhoutx]

Question for Srain or Wxman57, when will the winds switch to get rid of the Juniper Ash? Thank you..Signed the Suffering

Week two for me suffering from the 'crud'. Zyrtec has eased my issues the past week. Hopefully the early next week rainfall will provide some relief.

[Tireman4]

Question for Srain or Wxman57, when will the winds switch to get rid of the Juniper Ash? Thank you..Signed the Suffering

Week two for me suffering from the 'crud'. Zyrtec has eased my issues the past week. Hopefully the early next week rainfall will provide some relief.

From your meteorologic lips to God's ears..yes..this is week two for me as well....goodness

[Ntxw]

I am seeing more indications that a Major Hemispheric Pattern change may well be possible as we enter the late January/early February timeframe. The Ensembles as well as Teleconnection Indices and a favorable MJO suggest colder and potentially stormier weather arrives late month into the time that pesky rodent "predicts" whether Winter will linger or Spring arrives early.

I am more inclined now to believe the MJO progression than the past two months. With the negative SOI, tropical MJO forcing will be allowed to progress eastward into the WHEM (phase 2/1) as sinking air begins to descent over Indonesia (Nina standing wave). This likely the key indicator to see if the +PNA west coast ridge is real or not

[Portastorm]

Question for Srain or Wxman57, when will the winds switch to get rid of the Juniper Ash? Thank you..Signed the Suffering

Week two for me suffering from the 'crud'. Zyrtec has eased my issues the past week. Hopefully the early next week rainfall will provide some relief.

From your meteorologic lips to God's ears..yes..this is week two for me as well....goodness

Want the bad news now or later? Cedar season usually runs thru February.