Texas Winter 2016-2017

[bubba hotep]

I see a spring followed summer 2011 analog

This seems mostly like a troll post. However, Nina summers aren't going to be good analogs for this coming summer.

[Ntxw]

I see a spring followed summer 2011 analog

This seems mostly like a troll post. However, Nina summers aren't going to be good analogs for this coming summer.

Jokes aside, the +PDO is good for rain prospects. Summers in general have been warmer than normal of late Nino or Nina. We haven't had a true below normal summer in a long time.

[bubba hotep]

With this +PDO/+QBO/+PNA it's like we just flipped to last winters pattern

[Texas Snowman]

Winter cancel...from Ntxw...in January?!?

Is that what this thread has come to, looking at models and numbers and pulling the plug with 30 to 60 days to go in the season? (Depending on what part of the state we reside in.)

[Ntxw]

Winter cancel...from Ntxw...in January?!?

Is that what this thread has come to, looking at models and numbers and pulling the plug with 30 to 60 days to go in the season? (Depending on what part of the state we reside in.)

I have raised the white flag . It's always a goal to keep the discussion progressive and insightful but it's been tough the past two winters. I try my best to be optimistic. I am grateful for the snow in early Jan and wish Porta could get some. Perhaps reverse psychology might work

[Portastorm]

Winter cancel...from Ntxw...in January?!?

Is that what this thread has come to, looking at models and numbers and pulling the plug with 30 to 60 days to go in the season? (Depending on what part of the state we reside in.)

I have raised the white flag . It's always a goal to keep the discussion progressive and insightful but it's been tough the past two winters. I am grateful for the snow in early Jan and wish Porta could get some. Perhaps reverse psychology might work

I can't blame Ntxw at all. In fact, I'm with him on this. Let's just pack it up and get on with spring. Warm weather is where it's at. The sooner we embrace the mindset of wxman57 the better off we'll all be.

[hriverajr]

Last couple of years, models have been notorious for showing cold in the long range, but it rarely happens.

[Texas Snowman]

Shaking my head - I hope all of y'all turncoat heat misers get rust in your bicycle chains.

[Brent]

I've been making plans for the summer anyway so might as well get on with it

/runs

[gpsnowman]

Ok, so the next two weeks look terrible, I get that. But the second half of February and the first week of March remain!!!!!! If you recall, some pretty darn cold weather and winter precip happened in early March of 2014 and 2015. I have to keep faith until then. After that bring on warmth and soaking rain. Don't give up yet!!!! Right now, Wxman57 is in his chair, wearing his Hugh Hefner jacket with a pipe laughing hysterically. We can't let him get away with this!!!!!!

[Ntxw]

I will say this. The AO forecast is still extremely volatile. There is little consistency, one day the runs are mostly positive, the next it reverses. In an El Nino-like pattern the AO can be the difference.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I learned from last winter waiting on the cold. Can't fool me twice.

[wxman57]

I'm in full control of the thermostat now. Get ready for plenty of above-normal temps over the coming weeks. Maybe a brush with 90 in February? We'll see.

[Texas Snow]

Don't worry winter weather lovers, I've been working on a little project for mid February through early March:

[Texas Snowman]

I'm in full control of the thermostat now. Get ready for plenty of above-normal temps over the coming weeks. Maybe a brush with 90 in February? We'll see.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/56 ... 398eaa.jpg

Oh look, the resident weather bully is back....

[gboudx]

So wxman57 is the blame for global warming/climate change. And he doesn't care if the polar bears lose their habitat and go extinct. Or the oceans rise and submerge coastal cities and displace millions of people. As long as he can ride his bike, everyone needs to just suck it up and deal with it. Someone needs to clip his brake lines.

[bubba hotep]

If the MJO plays along, we could see winter make one last stand in late Feb or early March. The 12z Euro EPS goes out to 2/13 and the Pacific jet is extended with a +EPO and +PNA. It probably takes 10 days to shuffle things from that to a more favorable pattern, so around the 23rd? That is if the pattern starts to change around the 13th and doesn't linger on. Maybe it starts to shift earlier?

[Ntxw]

Gfs went from mostly boring to somewhat of hope. Still a lot of dry NW flow but it does show impulses/shortwaves that could sneak if we get a miracle. Stratwarm is still happening and split of the vortex within 10 days. The boring runs from interesting runs reflect the behavior of the guidance on their AO prediction. Wavelengths begins to shorten in Feb so an alaskan vortex is not detrimental as long as it is closer to the Aleutians and further south. Greenland is mildly interesting with a retrograding Kara ridge.

[wxman57]

Meanwhile, I'm dreaming about a February with record highs similar to 1986 and 1996. Now THOSE were winters! Here's a snipped of the high temperature records at IAH in February:

[Tireman4]

Like a rout in a basketball game, he is just piling it on. Keep the starters in the game sir with a 50 point lead...LOL