Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

GFS doesn't show any 90s or even 80s through 16 days. Just some 70s in there but that's hardly 1986 or 1996. But you know the drill 2 weeks out

[Tireman4]

GFS doesn't show any 90s or even 80s through 16 days. Just some 70s in there but that's hardly 1986 or 1996. But you know the drill 2 weeks out

Wxman 57 has decreed it, so it must be so. If there are 90's in February, to heck with the models. He feels it in the wind. He picks up the dirt to forecast warm weather. Sigh. I am just beat....

[CaptinCrunch]

Not to rub salt into the Winter wound, but we are +3.6 degrees warmer this January (+4.7) than we were last January +1.1

I was hoping with the move away from Nina back into ENSO neutral at the end of December would of set us up for a cold February, guess that dream is out the window...lol

[wxman57]

GFS doesn't show any 90s or even 80s through 16 days. Just some 70s in there but that's hardly 1986 or 1996. But you know the drill 2 weeks out

Oh, not yet, but those record highs were after the 20th back in '86 and '96. This is the type of weather pattern that could yield such highs in 3-4 weeks.

Just walked across the street to Luby's for lunch. Clear sky and 74 degrees. Not bad for mid-winter.

[wxman57]

I had no hand in the making of the graphic below. We're averaging almost 7 degrees warmer than normal for January (Houston). I don't see anything to indicate much will change in February.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I had no hand in the making of the graphic below. We're averaging almost 7 degrees warmer than normal for January (Houston). I don't see anything to indicate much will change in February.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... 1_temp.gif

Yea. I saw a very similar graphic on the weather channels site last night. Only things that's good for is early mowing and bringing back out all of the bugs.

[Tireman4]

I had no hand in the making of the graphic below. We're averaging almost 7 degrees warmer than normal for January (Houston). I don't see anything to indicate much will change in February.

Sigh. Double dang

[weatherdude1108]

Good weather to take a run (or bike ride/Luby's trek ) outside, but depressing otherwise for cold-lovers, in what should be our coldest month of the year approaching. Been dry lately too with low RH. Very Ninaesque.

[wxman57]

Lows in Houston have been below-normal. Down to 42 this morning at IAH, which is 2 degrees colder than normal. The high in the upper 70s will be a good bit above the 64 degree normal temp, though. I see that the EC is backing off on its forecast of a cold front passing through Houston on Saturday. Superbowl weekend here should be about as good as it gets in early February - lows in the 60s and highs in the 70s. Low rain chances.

[wxman57]

I had no hand in the making of the graphic below. We're averaging almost 7 degrees warmer than normal for January (Houston). I don't see anything to indicate much will change in February.

Sigh. Double dang

Cheer up, Tireman4, winter may return next December...

[Portastorm]

I had no hand in the making of the graphic below. We're averaging almost 7 degrees warmer than normal for January (Houston). I don't see anything to indicate much will change in February.

Sigh. Double dang

Cheer up, Tireman4, winter may return next December...

Oh my ... this is like when Buddy Ryan's Eagles threw a touchdown bomb from the victory formation against the Cowboys.

[bubba hotep]

Sigh. Double dang

Cheer up, Tireman4, winter may return next December...

Oh my ... this is like when Buddy Ryan's Eagles threw a touchdown bomb from the victory formation against the Cowboys.

[bubba hotep]

Euro weeklies are straight up ugly for anyone looking for a last gasp from winter. Spring svr wx season does look to get kicked off with a bang. The H5 pattern would suggest an active storm track with above normal temps. Still looks like our last best chance for some true winter temps in N. Texas could be that Feb 7 - 10th window.

[South Texas Storms]

Euro weeklies are straight up ugly for anyone looking for a last gasp from winter. Spring svr wx season does look to get kicked off with a bang. The H5 pattern would suggest an active storm track with above normal temps. Still looks like our last best chance for some true winter temps in N. Texas could be that Feb 7 - 10th window.

Yep I like the look of the extended Euro weeklies. Above normal rainfall in the spring is a very good thing.

0z GFS is very different from the past several runs. Much colder air in western Canada next week.

[bubba hotep]

Euro weeklies are straight up ugly for anyone looking for a last gasp from winter. Spring svr wx season does look to get kicked off with a bang. The H5 pattern would suggest an active storm track with above normal temps. Still looks like our last best chance for some true winter temps in N. Texas could be that Feb 7 - 10th window.

Yep I like the look of the extended Euro weeklies. Above normal rainfall in the spring is a very good thing.

0z GFS is very different from the past several runs. Much colder air in western Canada next week.

I would take it but how long can the GFS hold on to this look?

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro is much colder next week as well. Completely different flow pattern on the 0z GFS and Euro compared to the past several runs. Freeze down to wxman57's house next Thursday morning according to the Euro.

Not much precip though...

[Ntxw]

0z Euro is much colder next week as well. Completely different flow pattern on the 0z GFS and Euro compared to the past several runs. Freeze down to wxman57's house next Thursday morning according to the Euro.

Not much precip though...

Overnight runs look a lot more hopeful for winter lovers. The EPO ridge is centered more in Alaska vs retrograding too quickly loading cold in wcan. Euro shoves the PNA ridge to a more -PNA look with trough developing in the west and kicking through with cold air spilling into it down the rockies vs east.

[Ntxw]

A little update on the SSW. I've been following Dr. Amy H Butler (NOAA CIRES/ESRL strat specialist) and it does seem we are going to see a full PV split in the stratosphere. The process has been painfully slow. It's warmed dramatically from wave 1 that's displaced the strong strat pv and weakened it over the past week. wave 2 should split the vortex (help from the Kara ridge) and as it works down still waiting on the -AO response. As I mentioned many posts ago any response to the strat warming won't happen till at least the second week of Feb if at all. Usually a strong -AO is how you stretch winter into March.





Euro shows the split even down at the lower levels of the strat at 100hPa (which means it is working its way down to the troposphere)

[wxman57]

Both the EC & GFS gave up on this weekend's cold front. Both models HAD a fairly strong front moving through around the 4th/5th (Superbowl weekend here). Now, nothing. They switched to the 8th-9th for the cold front. I think they're teasing you cold-mongerers. The cold air is always on the horizon, just out of reach. I may just have to take Friday off and go for a long bike ride - in shorts and short-sleeves.

But, who knows, maybe a cold front will move through around the middle of next week. A day of winter in the middle of the week wouldn't be too bad, I suppose. Not much hope for cold in the long-range GFS. I'll be in New Orleans for Valentine's Day, testifying at a court case. Won't need my coat, it appears.

[orangeblood]

0z Euro is much colder next week as well. Completely different flow pattern on the 0z GFS and Euro compared to the past several runs. Freeze down to wxman57's house next Thursday morning according to the Euro.

Not much precip though...

Overnight runs look a lot more hopeful for winter lovers. The EPO ridge is centered more in Alaska vs retrograding too quickly loading cold in wcan. Euro shoves the PNA ridge to a more -PNA look with trough developing in the west and kicking through with cold air spilling into it down the rockies vs east.

What transpired during the overnight model runs is a great example of why most of our weather models are somewhat useless beyond 7 days (particularly the GFS)...look at the flip that occurred on the GFS from 18Z to 00Z





Those 2 500mb patterns show drastically different depictions of sensible weather across the lower 48...it's truly baffling why American weather models continue to under perform compared to its peers. Hopefully, once our newly elected President finds out the Europeans are outperforming the US in this regard, he'll do something about it. Come to think of it - it's time to "Make American Weather Models Great Again"