Texas Winter 2016-2017

[CaptinCrunch]

We will have mostly cloudy skies and cooler weather Thursday through Saturday with low chances of showers Thursday and Friday and a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday. Rain chances will come to an end from northwest to southeast late Saturday night into Sunday.

[Theepicman116]

My trees are really confused! If they start blooming and it freezes half way through the process of blooming, than I know I'm going to be in for a rough time! My allergies will kick up and I will feel like I'm dying!

I'm hoping for cold weather to stop the trees from blooming (so I don't suffer. My allergies kick up when the leafs falls and when the leafs come back.) and also I want snow. Snow and not feeling like my allergies came up to me and hit me in the face with a metal baseball bat would be great.

AccuWeather isn't showing anything positive but on Pete Delkus's 10 day forecast is showing positive results. Next Wednesday it's showing 55 degrees as the high.

[wxman57]

The GFS is sort of like a slot machine. With each pull of the arm comes a completely different forecast. What will the 12Z run bring?

[gboudx]

My trees are really confused! If they start blooming and it freezes half way through the process of blooming, than I know I'm going to be in for a rough time! My allergies will kick up and I will feel like I'm dying!

I'm hoping for cold weather to stop the trees from blooming (so I don't suffer. My allergies kick up when the leafs falls and when the leafs come back.) and also I want snow. Snow and not feeling like my allergies came up to me and hit me in the face with a metal baseball bat would be great.

AccuWeather isn't showing anything positive but on Pete Delkus's 10 day forecast is showing positive results. Next Wednesday it's showing 55 degrees as the high.

Trees don't actually bloom depending on temperature. The trigger is length of the nighttime. They have certain molecules which are able to detect night getting shorter, and when it's time to start blooming. I'm not a horticulturist; I was just curious and looked this up a few years ago.

[Ntxw]

More guidance members is nosediving the AO. No surprise that the models overnight got colder. Perhaps as stated above the strat warming/pv split event is coming into range of effecting the AO? The warmer boring runs (EPO aside) have been during +AO tendencies vice versa.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is big trough coming down WCan. Continues the 6z idea. Unbelievable flip from a day ago. Squashes the wcoast +PNA ridge. Could this be another case of GFS saying barely to freezing for a -EPO dump and fail? 564dm+ isnt the 570+ in Jan but really not that far off..

[gatorcane]

12z GFS is big trough coming down WCan. Continues the 6z idea. Unbelievable flip from a day ago. Squashes the wcoast +PNA ridge. Could this be another case of GFS saying barely to freezing for a -EPO dump and fail? 564dm+ isnt the 570+ in Jan but really not that far off..

Canadian also on board with this mega trough from Western Canada now. Let's see what the Euro shows.

[Ntxw]

Not to just diss the GFS, even the euro went about 180 with the EPO ridge and trough/ridge placement downstream. Of course all of this was predictions before the EPO ridge even happened.

[orangeblood]

Not to just diss the GFS, even the euro went about 180 with the EPO ridge and trough/ridge placement downstream. Of course all of this was predictions before the EPO ridge even happened.

Yes, but the Euro caught it about 24-36 hours sooner than GFS....with how much the US economy is affected by weather and forecasting, it is extremely perplexing as to why The US Models aren't the best in their field. Although I believe there is hope on the horizon - with Donald Trump's new appointees, have much more confidence in this administration to get things, such as improvements in weather forecasting tools, done!!

[wxman57]

Was just looking at the temperatures forecast across Texas behind this massive Arctic outbreak next week. Euro forecasts a low down to 28-30 degrees in the D-FW area next Thursday. In Houston, temps are predicted to be around 38-39 degrees. Oh the humanity! I hope that all of you survive the onslaught of cold next week. I'll be staying indoors with my electric blanket for the duration of the cold (24 hrs or so).

On a more serious note, the 10-day Euro has a trof across the Gulf of Alaska. Not much of a ridge out west. That's not good for sustained cold across our area. Pattern in February will be much like January. Mostly warm with occasional moderate cold fronts to drop temps below normal for a few days. Chances of any significant winter weather (snow/ice) across NE to SE Texas are not looking good. I wouldn't rule it out, but it's certainly possible we've seen the last of winter weather across east Texas.

[Ntxw]

Was just looking at the temperatures forecast across Texas behind this massive Arctic outbreak next week. Euro forecasts a low down to 28-30 degrees in the D-FW area next Thursday. In Houston, temps are predicted to be around 38-39 degrees. Oh the humanity! I hope that all of you survive the onslaught of cold next week. I'll be staying indoors with my electric blanket for the duration of the cold (24 hrs or so).

On a more serious note, the 10-day Euro has a trof across the Gulf of Alaska. Not much of a ridge out west. That's not good for sustained cold across our area. Pattern in February will be much like January. Mostly warm with occasional moderate cold fronts to drop temps below normal for a few days. Chances of any significant winter weather (snow/ice) across NE to SE Texas are not looking good. I wouldn't rule it out, but it's certainly possible we've seen the last of winter weather across east Texas.

Like they did in early Jan for that outbreak? Their forecasted lows were more like actual highs that occured a week later! Trust nothing

[gatorcane]

JMA also sees this big trough and for now has the brunt of the cold to the north of Texas but it is diving SE and long-range so something to monitor if the cold can dive more to the south:

[wxman57]

Was just looking at the temperatures forecast across Texas behind this massive Arctic outbreak next week. Euro forecasts a low down to 28-30 degrees in the D-FW area next Thursday. In Houston, temps are predicted to be around 38-39 degrees. Oh the humanity! I hope that all of you survive the onslaught of cold next week. I'll be staying indoors with my electric blanket for the duration of the cold (24 hrs or so).

On a more serious note, the 10-day Euro has a trof across the Gulf of Alaska. Not much of a ridge out west. That's not good for sustained cold across our area. Pattern in February will be much like January. Mostly warm with occasional moderate cold fronts to drop temps below normal for a few days. Chances of any significant winter weather (snow/ice) across NE to SE Texas are not looking good. I wouldn't rule it out, but it's certainly possible we've seen the last of winter weather across east Texas.

Like they did in early Jan for that outbreak? Their forecasted lows were more like actual highs that occurred a week later! Trust nothing

Keep an eye on the source region for this cold front. There were some extremely cold temps in Canada at the beginning of the year. Current temps in NW Canada (into Alaska) are not that cold. Lows across many areas of SW Canada this morning were above freezing. I have little doubt we'll see some type of cold front next week. Lows in the 30s, however, are not very cold for February.

In other news, spring is springing across the south, according to the website below. The plants/trees can see it coming on fast:
https://www.usanpn.org/data/phenology_maps

[Cuda17]

Was just looking at the temperatures forecast across Texas behind this massive Arctic outbreak next week. Euro forecasts a low down to 28-30 degrees in the D-FW area next Thursday. In Houston, temps are predicted to be around 38-39 degrees. Oh the humanity! I hope that all of you survive the onslaught of cold next week. I'll be staying indoors with my electric blanket for the duration of the cold (24 hrs or so).

On a more serious note, the 10-day Euro has a trof across the Gulf of Alaska. Not much of a ridge out west. That's not good for sustained cold across our area. Pattern in February will be much like January. Mostly warm with occasional moderate cold fronts to drop temps below normal for a few days. Chances of any significant winter weather (snow/ice) across NE to SE Texas are not looking good. I wouldn't rule it out, but it's certainly possible we've seen the last of winter weather across east Texas.

Like they did in early Jan for that outbreak? Their forecasted lows were more like actual highs that occurred a week later! Trust nothing

Keep an eye on the source region for this cold front. There were some extremely cold temps in Canada at the beginning of the year. Current temps in NW Canada (into Alaska) are not that cold. Lows across many areas of SW Canada this morning were above freezing. I have little doubt we'll see some type of cold front next week. Lows in the 30s, however, are not very cold for February.

In other news, spring is springing across the south, according to the website below. The plants/trees can see it coming on fast:
https://www.usanpn.org/data/phenology_maps

https://geoserver.usanpn.org/geoserver/ ... =image/png

ABSOLUTELY NO MERCY!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

there is going to be a lot of dead plants and stunted tree growth come mid Feb

[Ntxw]

Keep an eye on the source region for this cold front. There were some extremely cold temps in Canada at the beginning of the year. Current temps in NW Canada (into Alaska) are not that cold. Lows across many areas of SW Canada this morning were above freezing. I have little doubt we'll see some type of cold front next week. Lows in the 30s, however, are not very cold for February.

In other news, spring is springing across the south, according to the website below. The plants/trees can see it coming on fast:
https://www.usanpn.org/data/phenology_maps

https://geoserver.usanpn.org/geoserver/ ... =image/png

It may not be as cold as Jan, source region may not be as cold as then either I'll give you that. But I'll mention the same thing now as I did then, -EPO 3sigma or greater rarely if ever brings just 'a light freeze' to us here. 564dm heights in Alaska is no wimpy matter! Euro goes 570dm+ into the heart of Alaska

[Brent]

80 degrees at DFW again today

Is it time to move to the spring thread yet???

[texas1836]

80 degrees at DFW again today

Is it time to move to the spring thread yet???

Shut yo mouth SON!!! We got another coming, will probably be the last, but something wicked this way comes....

[Theepicman116]

80 degrees at DFW again today

Is it time to move to the spring thread yet???

HOW DARE YOU SAY SUCH WORDS!!! IT'S NOT SPRING UNTIL APRIL 1ST!!! That's when I start wearing shorts and give my legs some sun. My legs aren't pale enough to blind you yet...

[CaptinCrunch]

80 degrees at DFW again today

Is it time to move to the spring thread yet???

Today put us here in NTX at a +5. degrees above normal for January.
But I'm still not ready to throw in the towel on this Winter, as February can still surprise us.