Texas Spring 2017

[bubba hotep]

Sun is breaking through out here in Collin County but will the strong cap hold?

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/858331609283649540

[newtotex]

Sun is breaking through out here in Collin County but will the strong cap hold?

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/858331609283649540

What's the difference between the two STP's in the sounding? Anything over 1 can support tornado (IIR James Spann correctly), so the 2.5 and 6 seem like a decent amount.

The sun is also peeking out here in N. Dallas County, feel like tornado weather outside

[Ntxw]

If there were discrete cells ahead perhaps, but the cap will limit that. Quick pacing squall line this evening will be the main show here.

Winter storm warnings in Dallam (Dalhart) county for 5-10" of snow. Parts of that area could see 1ft! Crazy convective snow to occur.

[Brent]

Is the front going to clear DFW before the line really organizes? HRRR seems to be hinting at it

But yeah the snow in the Panhandle is insane.

[Ntxw]

Is the front going to clear DFW before the line really organizes? HRRR seems to be hinting at it

But yeah the snow in the Panhandle is insane.

Front is already passed Graham and Mineral Wells. Low to mid 50s behind it, milder 80s ahead of it. You can see a thin line on radar representing the front from Decatur to Weatherford. Some short range guidance is already overplaying the precip, If the front is faster, may result in very little rain. For some this may turn out to be a very bad bust, with dryslot. The further east you are the better your luck will be.

20s and 30s this afternoon in the Panhandle...100s in the lower RGV

[TexasBreeze]

Other than that one day with the flooding along the coast, it has been a dry month it seems like in the Houston area. Considering the ever present caps, May may not help much either.

[wxman22]

We could see a couple of inches of rain in Southeast Texas this Wednesday if the global models are right...

[bubba hotep]

Some storms are trying but appear to be getting capped pretty quickly. Front is already pushing into Ft. Worth... so unless there is explosive development in the new 30 min or so, it looks like a mostly dry frontal passage for DFW.

ETA: This next round might actually be breaking through, hard to see but updraft is just behind the lower clouds



ETA 2: The cap is still winning... ugh

[Brent]

I can't believe this is going to bust lol

[bubba hotep]

Wow... front is going to clear the airport dry. What an epic model bust. This might even make it east of DFW without producing any measurable rainfall.

[Ntxw]

I can't believe this is going to bust lol

Front is about to clear the airport. Rainwise, this will be a pretty big bust.

[bubba hotep]

Here is what the 12z 3k NAM had

[bubba hotep]

Based on sat, the best low level convergence is well east of DFW and the lift associated with the front is meager at best. This might be the biggest bust I've ever seen. Every model for nearly a week now was showing significant rainfall across the DFW area with this system.

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley is puzzled by the lack of storm initiation as well. His Stat Method and othe models consistently showed a line of storms by now.

[Ntxw]

The infamous cap really did it today. We've seen a few outbreak days bust because of it. What's surprising is usually the front would at least provide enough lift along it for squally weather even that didn't happen.

On a good note, definitely felt the air temp change pretty quickly. It was low 90s here not long ago, much cooler now.

[Brent]

Lol and now it's blowing up east of here shocker

Oh well at least this humid sticky crap is going away

[starsfan65]

How come the cap didn't break?

[South Texas Storms]

Frustrating forecast today with the stronger cap.

I think part of it might be due to the smoke streaming northward from Mexico (they always burn brush down there this time of year). It's quite hazy across the Gulf and Texas because of this. The haze likely adds a bit of strength to the cap. Still surprised much of the state won't be getting much rain from this storm system. Quite disappointing.

[weatherdude1108]

When I read that EWX discussion update about the CAP around noon, I was somewhat relieved, but rain would be nice. I have heard the Mexican fires play a role in that. All I hope is that JDawg isn't reading any of this.
Disappointing.

[Ntxw]

When I read that EWX discussion update about the CAP around noon, I was somewhat relieved, but rain would be nice. I have heard the Mexican fires play a role in that. All I hope is that JDawg isn't reading any of this.
Disappointing.

The rain miser had his hunch this morning the models were trending with a skinny line. The trend was not his friend. But should feel great later on, we're now well down to the 70s and a cool breeze.