2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[NDG]

You have to love the consensus between all models of a tropical low developing over the GOH/Yucatan P area by this weekend, we don't see that too often, and very good consensus between the GFS and Euro through at least 192hr forecast on last night's runs.

[cycloneye]

Great twitterstorm from Levi about the possible evolution of this area.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/874242390516748288



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/874246314015567874



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/874249534364413952



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/874250036292530176



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/874250682680868864

[Stormcenter]

If anything this looks like a very large and wet system based on GFS.

[latitude_20]

Bring it on, our jungles are as dry as a crackerbox.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is BOC bound.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the models are trending towards the typical solution with these types of scenarios; a sloppy TC moving WNW across the BOC into Mexico.

[cycloneye]

The shift SW by GFS is shown here.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/874304767371116546

[cycloneye]

CMC also shifts SW.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/874305325804990464

[cycloneye]

Discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about the potential system in Western Caribbean/BOC.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/poten ... -next-week

Early next week, it will be time to start watching one of the preferred breeding grounds for June Atlantic tropical storms—the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico. Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—have been persistently predicting that an area of low pressure capable of developing into a tropical depression will form near Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula around Sunday, June 18. Formation of this low may be helped out by the arrival of a tropical wave that will enter the Western Caribbean late this week. While the skill of the models to predict tropical cyclone formation so far in advance has not been established, the fact that all three of the models are calling for something to potentially develop is noteworthy, and we should be watching the waters surrounding the Yucatan Peninsula early next week.

With ocean temperatures about 1 – 1.5°C (2 - 3°F) above average, at 29.5° - 30°C (85° – 86°F), along with wind shear that is predicted to be moderate, conditions will be ripe for development--if the area of low pressure manages to center itself over the water. That’s a big “if”, since there is plenty of land in the region to potentially interfere with development. The eventual track any potential storm that might form is uncertain, since steering currents will be weak. The Monday morning ensemble runs of the GFS and European models were showing the primary threat would be to the Gulf of Mexico coasts of Mexico and Texas, though. We will revisit the potential for development in a post later this week, probably on Wednesday.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF developing that wave behind the GOM system again. This time in 5 days. It seems to be flirting with the idea every other run or so.

Here is an image:

[Alyono]

12Z EC weaker due to increased land interaction

[Alyono]

now, the MU has this under a massive upper high in the GUlf. Not sure why it is not intensifying significantly

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models are all trending away from a system in the G.O.M. It could just be a very quiet June. As the ECMWF washes out the wave it was developing. ECMWF showing high pressures across the Atlantic in the long range as well.

[Kingarabian]

now, the MU has this under a massive upper high in the GUlf. Not sure why it is not intensifying significantly

Could be a sinking/rising air problem they're picking up on. Systems on the eastern side of southern Mexico seem to be getting choked out. Thinking those conditions could be spreading into the eastern GOM. It also could be that the EPAC is robbing convection in this area similar to seasons past.

[Hammy]

Models are all trending away from a system in the G.O.M. It could just be a very quiet June. As the ECMWF washes out the wave it was developing. ECMWF showing high pressures across the Atlantic in the long range as well.

This tells me we're basically flying blind like we were the last few seasons--the models just seem worse and worse with the phantom storms every update.

[Portastorm]

Models are all trending away from a system in the G.O.M. It could just be a very quiet June. As the ECMWF washes out the wave it was developing. ECMWF showing high pressures across the Atlantic in the long range as well.

Are you being serious here?

[RL3AO]

Some of you are unreal. This system is a week away and WE'VE ALREADY BEEN TALKING ABOUT IT FOR A WEEK+. But sure, let's talk about how bad the models are.

[srainhoutx]

Models are all trending away from a system in the G.O.M. It could just be a very quiet June. As the ECMWF washes out the wave it was developing. ECMWF showing high pressures across the Atlantic in the long range as well.

This tells me we're basically flying blind like we were the last few seasons--the models just seem worse and worse with the phantom storms every update.

I could not disagree more. This is not a typical TC Genesis issue that we often see in the medium to longer range. These monsoonal trough gyres typically cannot resolve various spurious vortices that spin around the very large and broad monsoonal gyre.

What is rather clear is the fact that a very large and broad area of lower pressures will be anchored over portions of Central America and Southern Mexico. Any TC development in this sort synoptic setup is extremely slow and rarely accurately modeled regarding TC genesis.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models are all trending away from a system in the G.O.M. It could just be a very quiet June. As the ECMWF washes out the wave it was developing. ECMWF showing high pressures across the Atlantic in the long range as well.

This tells me we're basically flying blind like we were the last few seasons--the models just seem worse and worse with the phantom storms every update.

Agree with you 100%. However, the fact that the models all seem to agree on a set up with 5 or 6 days, and then change it so drastically run to run is not a good sign. They do pick up on areas of concern, but they still lack the ability to tell you the direct path a storm will take at that time frame. However, a BOC coastal hugger is most likely the scenario that will pan out. It has happened a lot more frequently in recent years if I am remembering correctly. Even though conditions seem good in the long range for some reason the models are washing out the waves even when they get to the western part of the basin. It is early in the season though, and even though I do believe June stays quiet that doesn't mean the season will be quiet.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF basically only has it briefly over water and keeps this very broad.