Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[Hammy]

Just love when GFS shows almost an opposite solution compared to the EURO..
NAVGEM 12Z- weak up into Tx
UKMET 12z- similar

It's a soupy mess right now..

Euro has a better track record overall, and more often than not when it's the outlier it's correct--remember Joaquin for instance.

[Portastorm]

I hope to have a pretty good idea where this thing is going by next Wednesday...

Johnny on the spot, you are. LOL.

[gatorcane]

A soupy mess is right, saved loop

[South Texas Storms]

I still feel like a track towards the western Gulf is most likely...hopefully we can get some more clarity from the models this weekend.

Think there is a pretty high chance of development into a depression or tropical storm, with a quite low chance of it reaching hurricane strength.

[Tireman4]

I hope to have a pretty good idea where this thing is going by next Wednesday...

Johnny on the spot, you are. LOL.

Well his nickname at work is Nails Heat Missr!

[Steve]

It has been mentioned here locally that IF the latest euro runs come close to veryifying, and that's a big IF, could be similar to Frances '98 with much of south LA getting some pretty substational flooding. Not leaning any one way right now but trust the gfs the least.

Hey Mike. I brought that up Tues/Wed. If Euro is right, it seems like much of the rain would be offshore. It's almost like a front washes out here but we get a flow from the West and NW. I guess how far north energy can get will make a difference

[Blow_Hard]

I still feel like a track towards the western Gulf is most likely...hopefully we can get some more clarity from the models this weekend.

Think there is a pretty high chance of development into a depression or tropical storm, with a quite low chance of it reaching hurricane strength.

I agree. Weather Channel, the Local Mets and our local NWS all seem to agree that the WGOM solution is most likely. Obviously, until we actually have a circulation to track it's a crap shoot but my very non-expert opinion resides with the N. Mex to S. Texas solution for whatever it becomes.

[northjaxpro]

Well this much is certain: Whatever becomes of this mess, many along the Gulf Coast potentially is going to get walloped by absolutely torrential rainfall from this system in the days to come next week.

[cycloneye]

20%-60%

Surface pressures are falling in the western Caribbean Sea and
the areal coverage of the disturbed weather has continued to
increase. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northwestward across the
Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the south central Gulf of
Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are
likely to spread over portions of Central America, the Yucatan
Peninsula and western Cuba during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[weathaguyry]

Just putting it out there, but Mark Sudduth thinks that this will generally move towards the Northern Gulf Coast. Here is his video update from earlier, very informative!!!

https://youtu.be/B_qI8GY6EH8

[Guadua]

Looks like a low on the TPW formed NW of Columbia and moving NNW just east of Nicaragua and north of Panama...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It has been mentioned here locally that IF the latest euro runs come close to veryifying, and that's a big IF, could be similar to Frances '98 with much of south LA getting some pretty substational flooding. Not leaning any one way right now but trust the gfs the least.

Hey Mike. I brought that up Tues/Wed. If Euro is right, it seems like much of the rain would be offshore. It's almost like a front washes out here but we get a flow from the West and NW. I guess how far north energy can get will make a difference

Hey Steve how you been? I don't have the pics but saw some potential rainfall maps passed around the Internet that if this were to develop and move towards corpus Christi or further north a lot of south la could receive upwards of 20 inches of rain.

[Craters]

Looks like a low on the TPW formed NW of Columbia and moving NNW just east of Nicaragua and north of Panama...

That's probably the von Karman wave that Levi Cowan mentioned in yesterday's Tropical Tidbit (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/).

[Steve]

All good man and hoping to mostly skate through the season hassle free. Despite the anomalously cooler waters in the Gulf at the moment, I do think we will get a scare or two this season. I saw some radar derived products yesterday that showed some heavy rainfall totals over by lake Charles and over toward Morgan City. GFS hasnt really picked up on too much. And I was speaking in relation to the Euro in that if it stayed far enough South as the 00Z highres graphic showed, mostly rain was offshore. I think a center farther north than the Euro shows (like you said up to Corpus or even Brownsville) could make a difference in the amount of rainfall up here. I'm still not sure what happens, but I do expect a piece of energy to peel off and threaten NC FL. I don't know if it ends up being at the surface of if it's higher up, but we are within a few days and too many models have latched onto something coming up. Even the Euro 12 that sort of just fades into N Mex shows a piece coming up through TX and up into the lower MS Valley on its way up and out. It's going to be cool to watch.

[CrazyC83]

12z GEFS favors the eastern GOMEX.

https://i.imgur.com/vHwxgHI.png

With that ridge to the north, you would think it would turn west towards Texas? Shades of Debby...

[Blow_Hard]

Tallahassee NWS 9:00pm AFD still riding the coat tails of King Euro. Not buying in to the GFS' EGOM solution.

[South Texas Storms]

The NAM has been pretty consistent with the western Gulf scenario. Doesn't look too unreasonable. The 0z run has a 1000mb TS heading towards the NW Gulf at the end of the run in 84 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't pick out any solution until like Monday or Tuesday but if I had a gun to my head I would say towards Texas but I do remember the GFS nailed Debby in 2012 so it can't be discounted

[psyclone]

this might be a case of "follow the convection" as poorly organized early season storms frequently are. Look how far east today's convection has migrated... it's now over Jamaica and Haiti.

[Steve]

I wouldn't pick out any solution until like Monday or Tuesday but if I had a gun to my head I would say towards Texas but I do remember the GFS nailed Debby in 2012 so it can't be discounted

Agreed. And BoC was always the best guess. GFS though had shown all the solutions of the other models, so I think it's been bad and also has been underestimating rainfall the last few weeks. CMC has been consistent with the PCB/Apalachicola scenario until it pulled a little west over toward Navarre for a run. But I think if there is a Ne Gulf issue, you can't wait til Monday or Tuesday for that call because that's landfall. It will be interesting to see what the globals do tonight.