ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTrackerLA]

A few days ago it was either Florida or Mexico, no chance of splitting the difference. Now I need to prepare for potential tropical storm conditions tomorrow night here in Louisiana. 12z Euro absolutely lashes south LA with feeder bands and it is significantly stronger than the last several runs.

[GCANE]

The two eddies north of the Naked Swirl beginning to move into a pretty steep Theta-E ridge now.
CAPE also increasing around them - now at 2000.

[SouthDadeFish]

HRRR has it at 993mb in 18 hours from the 16z run. That would be tomorrow around 8am. That's decent intensification. I don't watch the rapid update stuff that much because it doesn't go out far enough for what I usually want. But the closeness into land and landfall that 93L represents makes this a decent model to follow since it has updates every hour for the next 18.

I would not trust the HRRR for TC intensity forecasts. I recall last year it also kept forecasting Matthew to landfall in S FL and we know how that turned out.

[fci]

Will this be Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 at 5:00?

[davidiowx]

I have a bad feeling the center of this will pass directly over my location giving no rain. Will see how low the pressure gets at least.

I get that feeling as well here in Houston...

[Blow_Hard]

I have a bad feeling the center of this will pass directly over my location giving no rain. Will see how low the pressure gets at least.

Probably not a lot. Right now it appears as though Louisiana and Ms coasts are going to get the brunt of the rainfall. I can't imagine you wouldn't get any precip, probably just not as much as you would like. Careful what you wish for though. If it were to hit the Tx coast at the proper trajectory you could end up with a mess on your hands. Here in the Panama City Beach area they are telling us to expect 1"-3" . Nothing to get concerned about. I don't see any way the folks in Louisiana escape without getting some very serious rainfall totals.

[HurricaneBrain]

If recon doesn't find this to be a TD or TS (this scenario seems likely as of now), I think 93L will be named PTC 3 at 5:00 or 8:00. The NHC suggested that tropical storm watches/warnings may be issued on the Gulf Coast later today, so you would think it would be renamed today.

Will this be Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 at 5:00?

[jasons2k]

Wonder if this will be another Claudette...I keep looking at that one...

Are you referring to the 1979 one that flooded Houston pretty good?

2003.

[marionstorm]

SHIP S 1800 24.40 -89.30 167 20 26.0 - 11.5 12.0 - - 29.68

If I'm not mistaken this ship has found the center?

[OuterBanker]

Was there not massive flooding last year about the same time in the MS and LA delta region?

[stormreader]

Looks a little stronger this run, and a tad east.

Think that's getting very close now to where a couple of us thought last Fri-Sat might be the best bet. Upper Texas Coast or extreme SW La. Wouldn't be surprised at one more slight east move to the La-Tex border (Sabine River).

[sphelps8681]

I have a bad feeling the center of this will pass directly over my location giving no rain. Will see how low the pressure gets at least.

Probably not a lot. Right now it appears as though Louisiana and Ms coasts are going to get the brunt of the rainfall. I can't imagine you wouldn't get any precip, probably just not as much as you would like. Careful what you wish for though. If it were to hit the Tx coast at the proper trajectory you could end up with a mess on your hands. Here in the Panama City Beach area they are telling us to expect 1"-3" . Nothing to get concerned about. I don't see any way the folks in Louisiana escape without getting some very serious rainfall totals.

I must have missed it was not going to hit Texas. You could be right but I have not heard that today. Do you have a link to the info?

[RL3AO]

I was thinking the same earlier. Getting close to needing watches issued. Should be a PTC at 5 pm or 11pm, if recon can't close it off.

[Steve]

HRRR has it at 993mb in 18 hours from the 16z run. That would be tomorrow around 8am. That's decent intensification. I don't watch the rapid update stuff that much because it doesn't go out far enough for what I usually want. But the closeness into land and landfall that 93L represents makes this a decent model to follow since it has updates every hour for the next 18.

I would not trust the HRRR for TC intensity forecasts. I recall last year it also kept forecasting Matthew to landfall in S FL and we know how that turned out.

Thanks for the color on that. I don't really trust any model on intensification, but I figured that 18 hour runs ought to be pretty close. I guess not then at least with this model

[Blow_Hard]

I have a bad feeling the center of this will pass directly over my location giving no rain. Will see how low the pressure gets at least.

Probably not a lot. Right now it appears as though Louisiana and Ms coasts are going to get the brunt of the rainfall. I can't imagine you wouldn't get any precip, probably just not as much as you would like. Careful what you wish for though. If it were to hit the Tx coast at the proper trajectory you could end up with a mess on your hands. Here in the Panama City Beach area they are telling us to expect 1"-3" . Nothing to get concerned about. I don't see any way the folks in Louisiana escape without getting some very serious rainfall totals.

I must have missed it was not going to hit Texas. You could be right but I have not heard that today. Do you have a link to the info?

My apologies. I did not intend to infer that this was going to miss Texas. It seems as though that has a very good chance of hitting somewhere along the Tx coast. My point is that most of the significant weather at this point appears to be well east and northeast of the center putting the Louisiana and Ms coasts directly in the crosshairs if it maintains it's current structure.

[Kingarabian]

This recent 12z Euro run shows almost all the convection is confined to the eastern and NE quads.

[RL3AO]

Thanks for the color on that. I don't really trust any model on intensification, but I figured that 18 hour runs ought to be pretty close. I guess not then at least with this model

The HRRR is really designed to forecast thunderstorms and severe weather across the continental US. That's where the value comes from. There is no evidence to support that it does or should have any skill with tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.

[Stormcenter]

I would not say there is any "very good" chance of it hitting directly anywhere right now. I would say there is a very good chance someone from the TX to FL. will get some serious
flooding rains from this. IMO

Probably not a lot. Right now it appears as though Louisiana and Ms coasts are going to get the brunt of the rainfall. I can't imagine you wouldn't get any precip, probably just not as much as you would like. Careful what you wish for though. If it were to hit the Tx coast at the proper trajectory you could end up with a mess on your hands. Here in the Panama City Beach area they are telling us to expect 1"-3" . Nothing to get concerned about. I don't see any way the folks in Louisiana escape without getting some very serious rainfall totals.

I must have missed it was not going to hit Texas. You could be right but I have not heard that today. Do you have a link to the info?

My apologies. I did not intend to infer that this was going to miss Texas. It seems as though that has a very good chance of hitting somewhere along the Tx coast. My point is that most of the significant weather at this point appears to be well east and northeast of the center putting the Louisiana and Ms coasts directly in the crosshairs if it maintains it's current structure.

[cycloneye]

Plane is on route.

[RL3AO]

^^^

Thats the key point. It's all about the rain. Even if this never gets a name, parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast will see life-threatening flash flooding.