ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Should we have a preps/obs thread as well?

[Steve]

Should we have a preps/obs thread as well?

They probably will, but nobody really uses them. Discussion in 3 or 4 threads on a specific storm gets diffused IMHO. Btw, GFS starting to roll in so I'm hitting the models thread.

[weathaguyry]

About 7 hours more.

More time over water in latest track

If it gets a favorable environment it can make the difference between a TS or a Hurricane, like Claudette of 2003

[Steve]

GFS is rolling in now. It's at 6 hours and 1001mb. I'll comment back at 24 or so.

[South Texas Storms]

GFS is rolling in now. It's at 6 hours and 1001mb. I'll comment back at 24 or so.

And it's already southwest of the 12hr position from the 18z run. I think another west shift in the landfall point is upcoming this run.

[Aric Dunn]

Shear still low right near center as analized by cimss .. very interesting setup.. some potential now .. at least more than before

[jasons2k]

Looking at GOES-16 water vapor, that ULL/trough in the Western GOM appears to be diving south now. Also, the dry slot is slowly moistening up. On SW the channel our PTC3 isn't moving fast at all.

[Steve]

I think you'll be right. We're in the 3-4" range in the next 24. I think it goes up higher than that in the 24-48 range.

[Blinhart]

If it can completely get wrapped up in the next 6 to 10 hours, I wouldn't be surprised for this to make Cat. 1, and if it just stalls a little with all the heat energy of the GoM it could get up to Cat 2 by landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at various sat and data.. its still has a wsw to sw motion. Love the dynamical effects of such systems.. expect even more of a shift by 5 am

[Aric Dunn]

Can someone post the composite radar from the area.. its far enough south to be in range

[Jagno]

Landfall about 51 hours at 989mb between Galveston Bay and the TX/LA border. (32km) That's basically Chambers and Jefferson Counties, Texas - Winnie, Port Arthur, Beaumont. Nederland areas of Texas then further east in cities like Orange, TX and Holly Beach/Cameron/Hackberry in Louisiana if anyone still lives down that way after Rita and Ike.

Yes, we do still live "down this way" after Rita and Ike as well as Gustav. Our trees still have significant eastward curvatures and most of the eastward leaning utility poles were replaced. LOL I lost my home in Rita so this is stressful although the intensity is no where near that of Rita at this point. Flooding is a major concern given our already saturated soil due to days of relentless rain last week and some again today.

[HurricaneBrain]

http://wkrg.com/weather/interactive-radar/

Take a look at the future radar...

[AJC3]

Can someone post the composite radar from the area.. its far enough south to be in range

None of the Mex radars that are close enough are operational, from what I saw at work earlier.

Not really much to see on the US Composite yet, but here ya go....

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php

[jasons2k]

The NHC track is now on the east edge of the 00Z Guidance.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 0z...SWLA

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS now onboard with a SETX/SWLA landfall. Moderate TS. Projected path should shift west again in the morning...

[weathaguyry]

For what it's worth, 0z NAM 12km brings a 989mb Strong TS into Texas around 9-10PM Wednesday Night

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017062000/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_41.png

[stormlover2013]

Every model now has Texas landfall

[South Texas Storms]

The NHC track is now on the east edge of the 00Z Guidance.

Yep. Expect more westward shifts in the track tomorrow. Think this storm could track close to Houston late Wednesday/early Thursday.