ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Janie2006]

I think it depends on what's behind this next surge. It's yellows/oranges here with steady rain and maybe gusts to 25-30. We are close to 2" which itself isn't a big deal. But oddly 7000 people in the area have lost power. It doesn't make sense to me but maybe tree limbs.

Saturated ground with a good wind gust within a rainband could topple pine trees, for example.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210102
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 16 20170621
005200 2600N 09050W 8432 01474 9976 +190 +156 183003 004 020 001 00
005230 2600N 09052W 8429 01476 9978 +191 +159 140001 002 020 000 00
005300 2559N 09054W 8430 01475 9979 +190 +161 079001 001 022 000 00
005330 2559N 09056W 8430 01476 9977 +190 +163 033002 003 023 000 00
005400 2559N 09058W 8429 01478 9978 +191 +162 001005 006 023 000 00
005430 2559N 09100W 8440 01469 9982 +186 +164 352008 009 022 001 03
005500 2600N 09101W 8429 01478 9980 +185 +164 353009 009 027 001 00
005530 2601N 09102W 8429 01477 9980 +185 +167 001009 010 026 001 00
005600 2602N 09104W 8429 01478 9980 +185 +167 351008 009 026 001 00
005630 2603N 09105W 8430 01476 9981 +185 +168 348010 010 027 000 00
005700 2604N 09106W 8429 01478 9981 +185 +173 352008 009 028 000 00
005730 2605N 09107W 8431 01475 9980 +185 +171 356009 010 029 000 00
005800 2607N 09108W 8429 01478 9979 +185 +173 357010 011 029 000 00
005830 2608N 09110W 8430 01476 9981 +185 +177 357012 013 029 001 00
005900 2609N 09111W 8432 01475 9978 +185 +175 357013 014 028 000 00
005930 2610N 09112W 8430 01475 9979 +186 +173 004015 016 030 000 00
010000 2611N 09113W 8430 01477 9979 +187 +174 002012 015 030 000 00
010030 2612N 09114W 8431 01477 9984 +181 +175 338012 013 030 001 00
010100 2614N 09116W 8429 01479 9983 +180 +174 335013 013 029 000 00
010130 2615N 09117W 8430 01477 9983 +180 +174 332013 014 029 001 00
$$
;

Pressure and wind centers not aligned?

[MidnightRain]

In the Atlantic, when's the last time we've had three named storms by June 20th? (Apologies if this has already been asked and answered, but it's a long thread!)

2012 I believe, had two preseason storms and Chris and Debby in June.

[Frank P]

Gulfport Harbor just reported a wind gust of 40 mph (highest recorded today) with steady state winds at 24 mph...

[Steve]

Looks like Cajun land and specifically Houma is gonna get the next wave. That's maybe 50 miles SW of here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Javlin]

Here's the GOES 16 shortwave loop: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-07-48-1

Using that loop Mark I swear I think She comes in sooner and E of in the middle of LA @90-91W.The system is moving N with an ULL to the W still and the trof to the N http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html I am starting to wonder that's all? Shoot probably have to eat crow in the morning just obs.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210112
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 17 20170621
010200 2616N 09118W 8429 01479 9984 +181 +172 341015 015 029 000 00
010230 2617N 09119W 8429 01479 9982 +185 +169 342015 015 029 000 00
010300 2618N 09120W 8431 01478 9981 +185 +168 345015 016 028 000 00
010330 2619N 09121W 8429 01478 9983 +184 +169 344015 016 029 001 00
010400 2620N 09123W 8430 01478 9983 +185 +168 347015 015 031 001 00
010430 2622N 09124W 8430 01477 9980 +185 +166 351016 016 031 001 00
010500 2623N 09125W 8429 01479 9981 +188 +164 352016 016 032 001 00
010530 2624N 09126W 8432 01475 9979 +190 +163 355016 017 032 000 00
010600 2625N 09127W 8428 01478 9977 +194 +160 357016 017 032 001 00
010630 2626N 09129W 8430 01477 9981 +189 +162 350017 018 033 001 00
010700 2627N 09130W 8430 01480 9981 +188 +163 352019 019 033 001 00
010730 2628N 09131W 8429 01480 9983 +185 +163 350020 021 033 000 00
010800 2629N 09132W 8430 01477 9984 +185 +163 349021 021 032 000 00
010830 2631N 09133W 8432 01477 9982 +186 +162 350020 020 032 001 00
010900 2632N 09134W 8429 01480 9982 +190 +161 356021 021 033 000 00
010930 2633N 09135W 8429 01480 9982 +189 +161 002021 022 034 001 00
011000 2634N 09137W 8429 01480 9984 +187 +161 007023 024 036 000 30
011030 2635N 09138W 8430 01479 9986 +185 +162 008025 027 035 001 00
011100 2636N 09139W 8429 01483 9987 +183 +162 010027 028 041 000 00
011130 2637N 09140W 8428 01482 9988 +181 +163 012029 029 041 000 00
$$
;

[JaxGator]

Cindy is here and Bret too/was. It's been giving Jax a bit of a soaking in addition to the daily afternoon showers and storms that we've been getting the past two weeks. Not to often that we have two storms at the same time in June (1968).

[ROCK]

Here's the GOES 16 shortwave loop: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-07-48-1

Using that loop Mark I swear I think She comes in sooner and E of in the middle of LA @90-91W.The system is moving N with an ULL to the W still and the trof to the N http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html I am starting to wonder that's all? Shoot probably have to eat crow in the morning just obs.

follow the model guidance

[HeeBGBz]

From the GPT Harbor... you can view live weather data... winds around 24 with gusts to 32... Harbor is 6 miles west of my house on the beach..
http://www.gulfport-ms.gov/weather/

I'm on Debuys. Home and not on the roads. I wonder what Cindy will do tomorrow. Shes moving kind of slow.

[bamajammer4eva]

Tornado warning over around Panama City. I hope we don't see many of those. Stay safe everybody.

About 40miles northeast of PC. south of Blounstown, Fla.

Surprised to see this so far away in Florida. Warnings have expired but strong storms with some rotation at times still to the North of Wewa.

[gatorcane]

the Upper Level low appears to have full control of Cindy. She is getting pummeled with dry air and shear, thankfully. The rain threat is the main concern and not where the center comes ashore.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210122
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 18 20170621
011200 2638N 09141W 8430 01480 9989 +180 +163 013028 030 042 000 03
011230 2639N 09142W 8428 01484 9989 +180 +160 012028 028 042 000 00
011300 2641N 09144W 8430 01481 9991 +180 +159 010028 028 043 000 00
011330 2642N 09145W 8429 01483 9991 +181 +157 008029 030 042 000 00
011400 2643N 09146W 8430 01483 9993 +180 +158 004030 031 044 000 00
011430 2644N 09147W 8429 01485 9994 +177 +161 008030 030 045 001 00
011500 2645N 09148W 8429 01486 9995 +179 +161 008031 032 043 000 00
011530 2646N 09149W 8430 01485 9997 +176 +163 013032 033 045 001 00
011600 2647N 09150W 8433 01486 0000 +172 +166 018034 035 045 001 00
011630 2648N 09152W 8429 01488 0000 +170 +168 022036 037 046 001 00
011700 2649N 09153W 8430 01487 0001 +170 +168 022035 037 047 002 00
011730 2650N 09154W 8429 01489 0002 +170 +168 024035 036 048 002 00
011800 2652N 09155W 8433 01485 0001 +170 +169 027037 038 048 002 01
011830 2653N 09156W 8430 01488 //// +170 //// 027037 037 049 001 01
011900 2654N 09157W 8427 01492 0005 +170 +169 028038 039 050 002 01
011930 2655N 09159W 8430 01489 //// +169 //// 031041 041 051 002 01
012000 2656N 09200W 8430 01491 //// +168 //// 034044 045 050 002 01
012030 2657N 09201W 8431 01491 //// +164 //// 034045 046 049 002 01
012100 2658N 09202W 8428 01495 //// +165 //// 034045 046 051 001 01
012130 2659N 09203W 8430 01493 //// +158 //// 029051 055 051 003 01
$$
;

55 kt FL, 51 kt SFMR.

[LSU2001]

Looks like Cajun land and specifically Houma is gonna get the next wave. That's maybe 50 miles SW of here.

Steve,
I am in Cut Off and we are getting some pretty strong winds around 30-35 I would guess. Lots of rain but moderate not really heavy yet. I see the stuff coming up off the gulf so i imagine we gonna have some fairly crappy weather tonight.
Tim

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210132
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 19 20170621
012200 2700N 09204W 8436 01489 //// +139 //// 021058 060 051 002 01
012230 2701N 09205W 8428 01497 //// +135 //// 016061 061 050 002 01
012300 2702N 09206W 8426 01498 //// +130 //// 016061 062 047 002 01
012330 2703N 09207W 8431 01499 //// +140 //// 017060 062 046 001 01
012400 2704N 09209W 8434 01494 0025 +151 +150 013057 060 045 001 05
012430 2705N 09210W 8428 01500 0025 +156 +151 013053 056 046 001 00
012500 2706N 09211W 8430 01500 0024 +163 +146 010052 053 048 002 00
012530 2707N 09212W 8429 01503 0022 +166 +144 010049 052 048 001 03
012600 2708N 09213W 8432 01501 0022 +167 +139 014044 047 047 001 00
012630 2709N 09214W 8429 01505 0026 +162 +139 017043 044 046 000 00
012700 2710N 09215W 8429 01505 0030 +159 +138 018046 047 047 000 00
012730 2711N 09216W 8428 01507 0031 +160 +137 018044 046 044 001 00
012800 2712N 09217W 8430 01505 0030 +161 +133 017048 049 042 001 00
012830 2713N 09218W 8429 01507 0028 +168 +129 016049 050 042 001 00
012900 2714N 09219W 8429 01506 0028 +166 +134 018050 050 042 001 00
012930 2715N 09220W 8430 01506 0030 +165 +137 020050 050 044 002 00
013000 2717N 09222W 8432 01507 0032 +164 +132 019050 051 044 002 00
013030 2717N 09223W 8425 01519 0037 +163 +136 018052 053 040 001 03
013100 2716N 09224W 8429 01514 0038 +162 +141 016052 054 /// /// 03
013130 2714N 09224W 8428 01511 0037 +161 +140 014050 052 /// /// 03
$$
;

62 kt FL.

[caneman]

I don't think there is any model guidance to follow right now. It matters not where the center goes but who gets all the rain and any damage from it. Looks like mostly Louisiana to Pensacola. Hopefully not flooding

[CycloneGuru]

LA already flooding

https://www.facebook.com/chris.roberts. ... 0732885549

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210142
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 20 20170621
013200 2713N 09222W 8425 01514 0031 +164 +136 014049 050 042 000 00
013230 2711N 09221W 8432 01504 0030 +164 +136 013050 050 043 000 00
013300 2710N 09221W 8429 01508 0027 +169 +133 011049 050 042 001 00
013330 2708N 09220W 8429 01506 0029 +165 +132 010048 049 042 000 00
013400 2706N 09219W 8431 01504 0029 +162 +131 010044 046 043 001 00
013430 2704N 09219W 8432 01503 0031 +156 +139 010043 045 045 002 00
013500 2704N 09219W 8432 01503 0030 +158 +138 008042 045 045 001 00
013530 2700N 09217W 8429 01503 0028 +161 +140 008043 044 045 001 00
013600 2658N 09217W 8430 01502 0026 +161 +139 005043 043 045 001 00
013630 2656N 09216W 8429 01501 0021 +168 +134 002043 044 046 001 00
013700 2654N 09215W 8430 01500 0019 +171 +137 004044 044 046 001 00
013730 2652N 09215W 8431 01499 0024 +158 +146 004046 047 045 001 00
013800 2650N 09214W 8429 01500 0026 +152 +149 002047 048 046 003 01
013830 2649N 09214W 8432 01496 //// +142 //// 002049 050 046 001 01
013900 2647N 09213W 8426 01501 //// +145 //// 000051 052 046 001 01
013930 2645N 09212W 8432 01496 //// +153 //// 003055 057 048 001 01
014000 2643N 09212W 8428 01499 //// +153 //// 007056 057 050 001 01
014030 2641N 09211W 8430 01499 //// +160 //// 013050 054 050 002 01
014100 2639N 09210W 8429 01498 //// +162 //// 013045 047 049 001 01
014130 2637N 09210W 8429 01497 //// +163 //// 010043 044 049 001 01
$$
;

Strongest winds are in NW quad.

[ROCK]

62 knot flight level wow....

[tropicwatch]

Looks like we will get a wind increase next advisory. HH picking up some steady 50-60mph surface winds on several dropsonde's.