ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Offshore rigs just south of Terrebone Parish are now getting hammered.

METAR for: KSPR (Ship Shoal 178(OIL), LA, US)

Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C ( 73°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.58 inches Hg (1001.8 mb)
Winds: from the NE (50 degrees) at 63 MPH (55 knots; 28.3 m/s) gusting to 75 MPH (65 knots; 33.4 m/s)
Visibility: 2.00 sm ( 3.22 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 1700 feet AGL
Weather: BR (mist)
QC Flag: automated observation with no human augmentation

[SFLcane]

Offshore rigs just south of Terrebone Parish are now getting hammered.

METAR for: KSPR (Ship Shoal 178(OIL), LA, US)

Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C ( 73°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.58 inches Hg (1001.8 mb)
Winds: from the NE (50 degrees) at 63 MPH (55 knots; 28.3 m/s) gusting to 75 MPH (65 knots; 33.4 m/s)
Visibility: 2.00 sm ( 3.22 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 1700 feet AGL
Weather: BR (mist)
QC Flag: automated observation with no human augmentation

Most of the strong TS force winds will never make it onshore.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210232
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 25 20170621
022200 2612N 09111W 8434 01476 9983 +188 +164 278007 007 016 001 00
022230 2614N 09111W 8432 01476 9984 +185 +164 279006 006 015 001 00
022300 2615N 09110W 8429 01481 9984 +185 +166 262006 006 016 001 03
022330 2617N 09110W 8429 01480 9983 +185 +169 242005 006 017 000 03
022400 2618N 09111W 8428 01481 9982 +186 +166 221004 005 015 001 03
022430 2620N 09112W 8430 01478 9981 +189 +168 223003 004 017 000 00
022500 2621N 09114W 8428 01479 9978 +190 +166 213001 002 015 001 00
022530 2622N 09115W 8433 01475 9979 +191 +164 275001 002 018 000 00
022600 2623N 09116W 8429 01477 9977 +193 +166 014002 004 018 000 00
022630 2624N 09118W 8429 01478 9974 +196 +167 016005 006 018 000 00
022700 2625N 09119W 8431 01477 9975 +195 +170 351006 007 021 000 00
022730 2626N 09120W 8436 01471 9977 +195 +173 322006 007 020 001 03
022800 2628N 09120W 8423 01484 9974 +198 +171 274004 006 019 000 00
022830 2629N 09119W 8433 01474 9974 +196 +172 227002 003 020 000 00
022900 2630N 09117W 8429 01476 9973 +198 +169 014001 002 018 000 00
022930 2631N 09116W 8428 01477 9973 +195 +171 298002 004 017 000 00
023000 2632N 09115W 8432 01471 9977 +191 +165 285001 003 017 000 00
023030 2633N 09113W 8428 01477 9976 +190 +167 203002 003 018 000 00
023100 2634N 09112W 8430 01475 9976 +189 +171 276001 004 017 001 00
023130 2635N 09110W 8427 01476 9975 +186 +183 051003 006 016 000 00
$$
;

[Janie2006]

No need to refer to KMOB, cos that's accessible to anyone with a computer or a smartphone, but rain has not decreased in intensity at all. If anything, it has increased. Training moderate to heavy rainfall, even some lightning mixed in. I'm increasingly concerned about flooding potential. It seems that GFS QPF estimates are on track, unfortunately for Southwest Alabama.

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like Cindy caused some injuries yesterday before she was even born!

United Airlines passengers in hospital after turbulence hits flight

United Airlines Flight 1031 touched down in Houston with over a dozen passengers reportedly injured onboard after the plane encountered strong turbulence caused by Tropical Storm Cindy.
At least three of the passengers were taken to the hospital Tuesday.

Footage captured at Houston airport shows travelers being wheeled on to waiting ambulances. A teenage boy can be seen wearing a neck brace.

The plane was en route from Panama City to Houston, Texas, and the strong turbulence reportedly lasted 20minutes.

https://www.rt.com/usa/393290-united-ai ... urbulence/

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210232
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 25 20170621
022200 2612N 09111W 8434 01476 9983 +188 +164 278007 007 016 001 00
022230 2614N 09111W 8432 01476 9984 +185 +164 279006 006 015 001 00
022300 2615N 09110W 8429 01481 9984 +185 +166 262006 006 016 001 03
022330 2617N 09110W 8429 01480 9983 +185 +169 242005 006 017 000 03
022400 2618N 09111W 8428 01481 9982 +186 +166 221004 005 015 001 03
022430 2620N 09112W 8430 01478 9981 +189 +168 223003 004 017 000 00
022500 2621N 09114W 8428 01479 9978 +190 +166 213001 002 015 001 00
022530 2622N 09115W 8433 01475 9979 +191 +164 275001 002 018 000 00
022600 2623N 09116W 8429 01477 9977 +193 +166 014002 004 018 000 00
022630 2624N 09118W 8429 01478 9974 +196 +167 016005 006 018 000 00
022700 2625N 09119W 8431 01477 9975 +195 +170 351006 007 021 000 00
022730 2626N 09120W 8436 01471 9977 +195 +173 322006 007 020 001 03
022800 2628N 09120W 8423 01484 9974 +198 +171 274004 006 019 000 00
022830 2629N 09119W 8433 01474 9974 +196 +172 227002 003 020 000 00
022900 2630N 09117W 8429 01476 9973 +198 +169 014001 002 018 000 00
022930 2631N 09116W 8428 01477 9973 +195 +171 298002 004 017 000 00
023000 2632N 09115W 8432 01471 9977 +191 +165 285001 003 017 000 00
023030 2633N 09113W 8428 01477 9976 +190 +167 203002 003 018 000 00
023100 2634N 09112W 8430 01475 9976 +189 +171 276001 004 017 001 00
023130 2635N 09110W 8427 01476 9975 +186 +183 051003 006 016 000 00
$$
;

[Steve]

Still raining here moderate and gusty to 30. Fox 8 Live showed some high res model, don't think it was viper. But South Al and NW FL come under massive inflow over the next 24 hours or so. Be careful from like Mobile to maybe Walton or Bay Counties. I think it was the GFS Parallel last night that first indicated that was where the highest rainfall amounts would be. 10+ means flash flooding.

[bamajammer4eva]

Tornado watch soon

Mesoscale Discussion 1105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Areas affected...Coastal areas of
Louisiana...Mississippi...Alabama...and the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 210248Z - 210345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A recent uptick in convection has occurred over the past
hour over coastal waters, with convection expected to eventually
migrate inland. A tornado watch is being considered.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has increased in coverage and
intensity over the past half hour, although this uptick has occurred
primarily over open coastal waters from near the Chandeleur Islands
eastward to areas near/south of Apalachicola, FL. The greatest
instability (boosted by mid/upper 70s F dewpoints) remains offshore,
although some of the more unstable air has worked its way
northwestward into far southeastern Louisiana, where objective
analyses indicate nearly 1000 J/kg MUCAPE amidst 77-80 F dewpoints.
These higher dewpoints will advect northward gradually, with an
increase in the potential for low-level mesocyclones and tornadoes
gradually increasing in the discussion area in conjunction with the
slightly greater destabilization.

With these factors in mind, a tornado watch is being considered over
the next hour or so.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like Cindy caused some injuries yesterday before she was even born!

United Airlines passengers in hospital after turbulence hits flight

United Airlines Flight 1031 touched down in Houston with over a dozen passengers reportedly injured onboard after the plane encountered strong turbulence caused by Tropical Storm Cindy.
At least three of the passengers were taken to the hospital Tuesday.

Footage captured at Houston airport shows travelers being wheeled on to waiting ambulances. A teenage boy can be seen wearing a neck brace.

The plane was en route from Panama City to Houston, Texas, and the strong turbulence reportedly lasted 20minutes.

https://www.rt.com/usa/393290-united-ai ... urbulence/

Panama City, Panama that is, wouldn't want my home town in Florida to take any credit it doesn't deserve

[ROCK]

that tornado watch though warranted I really don't expect anything over a EF0-1...Cindy is not that type of storm...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210257
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 26 20170621
023200 2637N 09109W 8430 01473 9974 +187 +184 076004 006 016 000 01
023230 2638N 09108W 8429 01475 9974 +190 +180 107004 004 015 000 00
023300 2639N 09106W 8432 01471 9972 +192 +180 128005 005 013 001 00
023330 2640N 09105W 8430 01474 9972 +195 +176 143006 007 013 000 00
023400 2641N 09104W 8429 01474 9973 +191 +179 157009 009 012 000 00
023430 2642N 09102W 8429 01474 9974 +190 +179 162009 010 012 000 00
023500 2643N 09101W 8430 01474 9976 +189 +181 159012 013 012 000 00
023530 2644N 09059W 8427 01478 9976 +185 +182 158013 013 012 000 00
023600 2646N 09058W 8430 01473 9976 +187 +182 151014 014 012 000 00
023630 2648N 09058W 8429 01476 9975 +189 +181 155014 015 012 000 00
023700 2649N 09057W 8430 01474 9977 +185 +182 153014 014 012 001 03
023730 2650N 09055W 8425 01481 9978 +185 +182 154014 015 013 000 00
023800 2651N 09054W 8432 01474 9977 +185 +183 159014 015 013 000 00
023830 2653N 09052W 8429 01474 9977 +185 +182 169017 018 015 001 00
023900 2654N 09051W 8430 01476 9976 +185 +182 168019 019 017 000 00
023930 2654N 09051W 8430 01476 9977 +185 +183 169020 021 020 000 00
024000 2656N 09048W 8429 01476 9978 +186 +180 167020 021 021 001 00
024030 2657N 09047W 8433 01472 9979 +185 +182 164024 024 022 000 00
024100 2658N 09045W 8429 01476 9980 +184 +181 162026 027 024 001 00
024130 2659N 09044W 8429 01477 9981 +185 +177 163027 027 025 000 00
$$
;

[PTrackerLA]

60mph at 11pm update

[NDG]

Winds up to 60 mph per latest update.

[Steve]

that tornado watch though warranted I really don't expect anything over a EF0-1...Cindy is not that type of storm...

A lot of it is intersection with the dry air streaming up as well as the usual spin in rotating bands.

[poof121]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to the
Alabama-Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain and the
New Orleans Metropolitan area.

[HurricaneBrain]

Moving NW at 7mph

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210258
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 27 20170621
024200 2700N 09042W 8429 01478 9982 +184 +178 167028 029 025 000 00
024230 2701N 09041W 8430 01477 9982 +185 +176 165028 029 026 000 00
024300 2703N 09039W 8429 01480 9984 +185 +176 163030 030 025 000 00
024330 2704N 09038W 8432 01479 9986 +182 +174 161030 031 026 000 00
024400 2704N 09038W 8432 01479 9988 +180 +173 159031 032 025 000 00
024430 2706N 09035W 8432 01479 9986 +183 +172 158032 033 025 001 00
024500 2707N 09033W 8430 01481 9987 +181 +170 154035 036 027 000 00
024530 2708N 09032W 8426 01485 9990 +180 +171 155037 038 027 000 00
024600 2709N 09030W 8434 01478 9989 +181 +167 153041 042 029 000 00
024630 2710N 09029W 8429 01485 9989 +185 +173 153039 040 030 001 00
024700 2711N 09027W 8429 01487 9990 +185 +179 153040 040 031 000 00
024730 2712N 09026W 8430 01487 9992 +184 +180 156040 040 032 000 00
024800 2714N 09024W 8430 01486 9994 +185 +177 158039 041 031 000 00
024830 2715N 09023W 8429 01490 9995 +185 +161 157042 045 030 000 00
024900 2716N 09021W 8430 01490 0001 +179 +170 157050 051 031 000 00
024930 2717N 09020W 8429 01492 0000 +181 +162 155053 054 029 001 00
025000 2718N 09018W 8430 01492 0000 +181 +171 152050 054 030 001 00
025030 2719N 09017W 8424 01500 0015 +174 //// 152047 048 032 002 01
025100 2720N 09015W 8433 01492 //// +170 //// 152052 053 032 001 01
025130 2721N 09014W 8433 01493 0008 +175 +169 154057 059 032 001 00
$$
;

[NDG]

About time they placed Nola under a TS warning, substained TS force winds have been reported along Lake Ponchartrain all evening long with occasional 50 mph wind gusts, 10K Entergy customers without power in SE LA.

[southerngale]

I don't know if I've ever seen such a large Tropical Storm Warning area.


000
WTNT33 KNHC 210257
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...CINDY STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 91.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to the
Alabama-Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain and the
New Orleans Metropolitan area.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Alabama-Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 91.0 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and then toward the north is expected Wednesday
night and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy
will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas
late Wednesday and Wednesday night, and move inland over
southeastern Texas on Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
nearby ships indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is expected on Wednesday. Slight weakening is forecast to begin on
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
mainly north through northeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into
southeast Texas through Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area overnight and spread westward
within the warning area through early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, with isolated areas possibly up to 4 feet.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Wednesday
from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[ROCK]

I see 997 per recon...but 60 sounds right which is more than 45 I saw in prior advisories. the EURO had this down to 990...which per the Stoemgeo would be close to Cat 1...hmmm approaching coast land interaction tightening of COC...feels like Humberto....