2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[psyclone]

there is frequently a wide moat separating early season junk storms from the big boys. I tend to think of the real hurricane season as August through October. July is often a SAL dominated snooze fest so it would be no surprise to see the models take a break.

[tolakram]

IBM just threw its hat into the weather modeling ring

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/06/22/ibm-just-threw-its-hat-into-the-weather-modelling-ring/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-national%3Ahomepage%2Fcard#

[TheStormExpert]

there is frequently a wide moat separating early season junk storms from the big boys. I tend to think of the real hurricane season as August through October. July is often a SAL dominated snooze fest so it would be no surprise to see the models take a break.

I wouldn't mind a storm or two in July just to keep me from going nuts.

Btw, how common is it to have a COMPLETELY dead July two years in a row?

[OuterBanker]

Looks like July will be quiet. Truth is it usually is. As stated above the "High" season is between Aug 15 and Oct 15.

Of course I'll give it two weeks before the "season over" statements start.

Let's just relax and enjoy the down time.

[RL3AO]

Of course I'll give it two weeks before the "season over" statements start.

Two weeks? That's generous. I give it until the SAL outbreak after the current one.

[Siker]

Of course I'll give it two weeks before the "season over" statements start.

Two weeks? That's generous. I give it until the SAL outbreak after the current one.

I have a distinct memory of some bold large fonted "IT'S JULY" reminder posts from you which will soon be needed .

[cycloneye]

We have three already so what is the fuss about season over thing? July normally is a slow month.

[Alyono]

the MU is trying for another Gulf storm in early July

It has the monsoon trough remaining active into July. That is often a sign of an active season

[TheStormExpert]

the MU is trying for another Gulf storm in early July

It has the monsoon trough remaining active into July. That is often a sign of an active season

It's only the second run that it shows this but what's interesting is it is very identical to the 06z run but only stronger.

[Yellow Evan]

All 4 CFS ensembles on Weather Bell agree on a very potent hurricane off the coast of Africa around July 15-20.

[cycloneye]

All 4 CFS ensembles on Weather Bell agree on a very potent hurricane off the coast of Africa around July 15-20.

Any graphic of this?

[srainhoutx]

the MU is trying for another Gulf storm in early July

It has the monsoon trough remaining active into July. That is often a sign of an active season

There are indications that another CCKW may arrive just beyond the 4th of July timeframe.

[TheStormExpert]

All 4 CFS ensembles on Weather Bell agree on a very potent hurricane off the coast of Africa around July 15-20.

Interesting, was thinking we could see a early Cape Verde like hurricane similar to Bertha(2008).

[Hurricaneman]

All 4 CFS ensembles on Weather Bell agree on a very potent hurricane off the coast of Africa around July 15-20.

Interesting, was thinking we could see a early Cape Verde like hurricane similar to Bertha(2008).

Or even the 1996 version which people of NC will not want

[RL3AO]

IBM just threw its hat into the weather modeling ring

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/06/22/ibm-just-threw-its-hat-into-the-weather-modelling-ring/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-national%3Ahomepage%2Fcard#

There's some interesting things going on in the model world right now. Many felt MPAS was the future of American modeling, but it was given the cold shoulder by NOAA/NWS. Between IBM and Panasonic, we could be fairly close to the scenario where companies are producing the best model data in the world and not governments. (Note: Panasonic already somewhat claims this, but as far as I've seen, they haven't released verification stats to prove it)

[SFLcane]

All 4 CFS ensembles on Weather Bell agree on a very potent hurricane off the coast of Africa around July 15-20.

Cant find CFS ensembles in Ryan's models.. curious to see this thx.

[bamajammer4eva]

IBM just threw its hat into the weather modeling ring

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/06/22/ibm-just-threw-its-hat-into-the-weather-modelling-ring/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-national%3Ahomepage%2Fcard#

There's some interesting things going on in the model world right now. Many felt MPAS was the future of American modeling, but it was given the cold shoulder by NOAA/NWS. Between IBM and Panasonic, we could be fairly close to the scenario where companies are producing the best model data in the world and not governments. (Note: Panasonic already somewhat claims this, but as far as I've seen, they haven't released verification stats to prove it)

IBM replaced TORCON right away on weather.com when they took over-It's now only shown on TV and Greg Forbes FB page-not Weather.com. IBM has been working towards their own forecasting model system since the beginning. Being a computer company who owns such a big weather company it could be good. With their own models, this could make TWC more useful with forecasting than they were under NBC.

[SFLcane]

Never mind found it...not very reliable as most know.

[lrak]

Well some times out of no where the GOM can produce a Low from a big storm complex or a Low drifting into the GOM off the the land from an old front or trough. The Panhandle of Florida is often a good area for this to occur IIRC. The shear is kinda favorable for the N GOM right now.

Also Cindy produced a great swell for CC TX but way too much wind

[Alyono]

IBM just threw its hat into the weather modeling ring

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/06/22/ibm-just-threw-its-hat-into-the-weather-modelling-ring/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-national%3Ahomepage%2Fcard#

There's some interesting things going on in the model world right now. Many felt MPAS was the future of American modeling, but it was given the cold shoulder by NOAA/NWS. Between IBM and Panasonic, we could be fairly close to the scenario where companies are producing the best model data in the world and not governments. (Note: Panasonic already somewhat claims this, but as far as I've seen, they haven't released verification stats to prove it)

IBM replaced TORCON right away on weather.com when they took over-It's now only shown on TV and Greg Forbes FB page-not Weather.com. IBM has been working towards their own forecasting model system since the beginning. Being a computer company who owns such a big weather company it could be good. With their own models, this could make TWC more useful with forecasting than they were under NBC.

TWC itself is still owned by NBC and Blackstone. IBM bought the digital assets, but not the TV network