ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/880453139178151939
https://twitter.com/bennollweather/stat ... 5568220160

What does that mean for the season potentially?

It basically means (at least from the JMA) forcing from the atmosphere will resemble more of an El Nino, particularly weak central based, the next few weeks. Movement of the walker cell east away from the Nina like areas the past few months. Central Pacific vs Maritime continent.

[tarheelprogrammer]

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/880453139178151939
https://twitter.com/bennollweather/stat ... 5568220160

What does that mean for the season potentially?

It basically means (at least from the JMA) forcing from the atmosphere will resemble more of an El Nino, particularly weak central based, the next few weeks. Movement of the walker cell east away from the Nina like areas the past few months. Central Pacific vs Maritime continent.

So, less activity in the Atlantic?

[NDG]

What does that mean for the season potentially?

It basically means (at least from the JMA) forcing from the atmosphere will resemble more of an El Nino, particularly weak central based, the next few weeks. Movement of the walker cell east away from the Nina like areas the past few months. Central Pacific vs Maritime continent.

So, less activity in the Atlantic?

Not necessarily, IMO.

[RL3AO]

It's showing the typical convection signature of an El Nino, except maybe shifted westward a bit. Maybe a Modoki El Nino? We'll see. I'm not too sure what to make of the CFS/JMA beyond week two.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/880453139178151939
https://twitter.com/bennollweather/stat ... 5568220160

What does that mean for the season potentially?

It basically means (at least from the JMA) forcing from the atmosphere will resemble more of an El Nino, particularly weak central based, the next few weeks. Movement of the walker cell east away from the Nina like areas the past few months. Central Pacific vs Maritime continent.

Yeah we're seeing abrupt about faces from these models now. JMA's seasonal forecast for June barely had a warm neutral.

[Ntxw]

What does that mean for the season potentially?

It basically means (at least from the JMA) forcing from the atmosphere will resemble more of an El Nino, particularly weak central based, the next few weeks. Movement of the walker cell east away from the Nina like areas the past few months. Central Pacific vs Maritime continent.

So, less activity in the Atlantic?

Not necessarily unfavorable. But its not as favorable spatially than we have seen the past 12 months when Nina forcing favors Atlantic if true

[Kingarabian]

It's showing the typical convection signature of an El Nino, except maybe shifted westward a bit. Maybe a Modoki El Nino? We'll see. I'm not too sure what to make of the CFS/JMA beyond week two.

While Nino 1+2 has been volatile, it's still nowhere near the required negative threshold for this to be a true Modoki El Nino. I think that's why we're still seeing higher shear values in the GOM and Caribbean compared to the other areas in the Atlantic.

[Kingarabian]

Average for last 30 days -9.20
Average for last 90 days -4.95
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -4.92

Here are my averages for today and the next 3 days:

Code: Select all

June 29: Tahiti: 1013.75,   Darwin: 1013.50, Daily value: -6 to -8
June 30: Tahiti: 1013.25,   Darwin: 1013.75, Daily value: -10 to -12
July 01:  Tahiti:  1012.00,  Darwin: 1013.00, Daily value:  -15
July 02:  Tahiti:  1013.00,  Darwin: 1013.75, Daily value:  -13


My daily values may be slightly off since I'm just eyeballing longpaddock's previous estimates and applying them here.

Now looking ahead past this weekend, Tuesday to Thursday look really positive according to the GFS. Could see +10's to +25's. Then by next week Friday and through the weekend it'll flip negative again, and we could also see -10's to -25's. GFS is showing long spells of 1016's sitting over Darwin late next week. However this is a long way out, and models show little skill this far out.

Edit: In the beginning of June, I recall the EPS weeklies showing a week in July with positive daily values before they tanked again. Looks like it'll be this upcoming week.

[NDG]

It's showing the typical convection signature of an El Nino, except maybe shifted westward a bit. Maybe a Modoki El Nino? We'll see. I'm not too sure what to make of the CFS/JMA beyond week two.

While Nino 1+2 has been volatile, it's still nowhere near the required negative threshold for this to be a true Modoki El Nino. I think that's why we're still seeing higher shear values in the GOM and Caribbean compared to the other areas in the Atlantic.

Nino 1+2 may not be required negative threshold but the warm ENSO is still pretty central based. By the way, according to the CIRA/RAMMB graphics, shear has been running near average overall during the month of June.
Another thing, Nino 3.4 has cooled down some this week so far, may go down to + 0.6 if not +0.5 on next week's update.

[Kingarabian]

Just to touch up on the upper level wind activity:

12z Euro appears to be showing the return of easterlies near the equator:



But the same time is also showing a CCKW move across the Pacific:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/880376137494536192




The 12z GFS and the GEFS continue to show strong westerlies dominating all the way through day 16:

[Kingarabian]

It's showing the typical convection signature of an El Nino, except maybe shifted westward a bit. Maybe a Modoki El Nino? We'll see. I'm not too sure what to make of the CFS/JMA beyond week two.

While Nino 1+2 has been volatile, it's still nowhere near the required negative threshold for this to be a true Modoki El Nino. I think that's why we're still seeing higher shear values in the GOM and Caribbean compared to the other areas in the Atlantic.

Nino 1+2 may not be required negative threshold but the warm ENSO is still pretty central based. By the way, according to the CIRA/RAMMB graphics, shear has been running near average overall during the month of June.
Another thing, Nino 3.4 has cooled down some this week so far, may go down to + 0.6 if not +0.5 on next week's update.

[ig]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/sst_latlon_5day_latest1_zpsmybickc0.png[/img]

I agree, but we can't call it a Modoki since Nino 1+2 would have to be at a persistent -1.0C. Also [-1.0C] vs [+0.0C to +0.5C] at Nino 1+2 has to have high implications on how the Walker cell sets up and if we'll see an active Caribbean or not.

[Macrocane]

CFS is showing a massive WWB event that will kick off in late July and last through September.

What is WWB?

[1900hurricane]

CFS is showing a massive WWB event that will kick off in late July and last through September.

What is WWB?

Westerly wind burst.

[Ntxw]

Pulled up a recent blog by CPC folks, with some information on the TAO buoys.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/dearest-tao-love-letter-marine-based-observations

Excerpt:

"

"But it’s important to note that after all these years, TAO’s continued existence has never been a guarantee. TOGA, the program which gave us TAO, ended in 1994. Since then TAO has been supported by a myriad of sources. Currently, it is supported by NOAA as part of the operational ENSO observing system. It is important that we keep these buoys around. We wouldn’t want to lose our ENSO glasses."

It's flashy and easier to fund cool toys like new satellites that often gets an ear when cuts are made. But little is often said about these vital buoys that do need maintenance in the middle of nowhere. Places where few ships go and little observations are made.

[Kingarabian]

Pulled up a recent blog by CPC folks, with some information on the TAO buoys.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/dearest-tao-love-letter-marine-based-observations

Excerpt:

"

"But it’s important to note that after all these years, TAO’s continued existence has never been a guarantee. TOGA, the program which gave us TAO, ended in 1994. Since then TAO has been supported by a myriad of sources. Currently, it is supported by NOAA as part of the operational ENSO observing system. It is important that we keep these buoys around. We wouldn’t want to lose our ENSO glasses."

It's flashy and easier to fund cool toys like new satellites that often gets an ear when cuts are made. But little is often said about these vital buoys that do need maintenance in the middle of nowhere. Places where few ships go and little observations are made.

Whether you're a first world country or a third world country, ENSO has direct implications on world wide weather through the course of a calendar year, which in turn effect humans, animals, agriculture and local economies.

Interesting how we can spend 100's of millions of dollars on not yet perfect satellite instruments that will give false readings on key ENSO variables, yet we can't spend a fraction of that money to fix and improve the TAO network that would give us realistic and reliable readings on these key ENSO variables. Currently, the TAO network is no doubt more bang for your buck. With it, you'll give forecasters reliable information, which in turn will improve their forecasts thus giving countries and local communities more time to prepare for an El-Nino or La-Nina onset.

Oh well.

[Macrocane]

Westerly wind burst.

Oh, now it seems so obvious, how didn't I get it?

Thanks.

[Kingarabian]

Seeing +1.0c Anomalies pop up now for the first time on the buoys @ 5S, 140W:



So maybe +0.7C continues this week since we have +0.6C @ 5N, 140W and we average both areas out?

[LarryWx]

Seeing +1.0c Anomalies pop up now for the first time on the buoys @ 5S, 140W:

So, maybe +0.7C continues this week since we have +0.6C @ 5N, 140W and we average both areas out?

My best guess is for +0.7 to be maintained. Yes, it does look like the area near 140-150W warmed vs yesterday's maps whereas the area near 120W cooled a little. I estimate +0.8 for the area between 170W and 135W whereas 120-135W is ~~+0.3. The weighted average of those #s is just under +0.7. Imo, the best map to use is the one issued on Saturdays that has the five day average for Monday-Friday keeping in mind that the weeklies issued on Monday are the average of the prior calendar week.

Well, June SOI is in the books. It came in a little more negative than -9. That is moderately correlated with an oncoming El Nino and strongly correlated when eliminating years coming off of a Nino and when considering that June SST anomaly is up near +0.6

[LarryWx]

Today's TAO map still suggests ~+0.7 .

[Kingarabian]

Today's TAO map still suggests ~+0.7 .

That would be two weeks in a row and basically every seasonal model not named Jamstec will be too low in terms of SST's.