ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

However in a Modoki event, Nino 1+2 is substantially cooler than what it is now. Nino 1+2 is actually quite warm at the current moment, but check the GOM where we see cool anomalies. Could it be that the sinking air is landing in the GOM vs the eastern EPAC?

Anomalous sinking air would lead to above average SSTs, not below average.

I thought sinking air creates high pressure and if you high pressure over longer periods of time, in turn SST's cool?

[RL3AO]

I thought sinking air creates high pressure and if you high pressure over longer periods of time, in turn SST's cool?

Sinking air creates high pressure. High pressure leads to less cloud cover. Less cloud cover results in more solar radiation reaching the surface. More solar heating leads to warmer waters.

[Kingarabian]

I thought sinking air creates high pressure and if you high pressure over longer periods of time, in turn SST's cool?

Sinking air creates high pressure. High pressure leads to less cloud cover. Less cloud cover results in more solar radiation reaching the surface. More solar heating leads to warmer waters.

What about in relation to wind movement, where high pressures favor easterlies that cool water and lower pressures favor westerlies that warm water?

[RL3AO]

I thought sinking air creates high pressure and if you high pressure over longer periods of time, in turn SST's cool?

Sinking air creates high pressure. High pressure leads to less cloud cover. Less cloud cover results in more solar radiation reaching the surface. More solar heating leads to warmer waters.

What about in relation to wind movement, where high pressures favor easterlies that cool water and lower pressures favor westerlies that warm water?

Don't mix up the Gulf of Mexico vs the deep tropics. The Gulf of Mexico is closer to the subtropics than the deep tropics. It's impacted a lot more by midlatitude weather. If you have anomalously weak winds and clear skies over the GOM, it will warm. If you have anomalously strong winds and cloudy skies over the GOM, it will cool.

[Kingarabian]

Sinking air creates high pressure. High pressure leads to less cloud cover. Less cloud cover results in more solar radiation reaching the surface. More solar heating leads to warmer waters.

What about in relation to wind movement, where high pressures favor easterlies that cool water and lower pressures favor westerlies that warm water?

Don't mix up the Gulf of Mexico vs the deep tropics. The Gulf of Mexico is closer to the subtropics than the deep tropics. It's impacted a lot more by midlatitude weather. If you have anomalously weak winds and clear skies over the GOM, it will warm. If you have anomalously strong winds and cloudy skies over the GOM, it will cool.

Understood, thank you for the clarification. Well that means the GOM being anomalously cool is a mystery.

[RL3AO]

Understood, thank you for the clarification. Well that means the GOM being anomalously cool is a mystery.

Above average precipitation since the start of April is probably a starting point to solve the mystery.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm guessing it might still be mixing out the cooler SST's from all the fronts, disturbances, and Cindy that have went through it the past 4-6 months.

[Kingarabian]

Understood, thank you for the clarification. Well that means the GOM being anomalously cool is a mystery.

Above average precipitation since the start of April is probably a starting point to solve the mystery.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/6qY4wxT.gif[/mg]

Makes sense now. Also, couple of weeks ago I read something somewhere that this year's severe weather outbreaks got an extra tap of energy from the GOM.

[Kingarabian]

In June, the subsurface pool has re-invented itself for the most part. Gone is the traditional warm pool that centers itself at the deep depth's, and in with a warm pool that is developing and expending above 200m.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GFS/Euro are in agreement that high Darwin SLPs will return around 7/9 and persist for awhile. However, there is disagreement regarding Tahiti. The GFS has it fairly unremarkable while the Euro has it much lower and is implying a strongly -SOI period starting near 7/9-10. The GFS seems to have had a high bias on Tahiti SLPs recently. So, I'm leaning to the Euro regarding Tahiti as of now. That means I'm leaning toward a solid -SOI period for at least several days starting around 7/9-10. Meanwhile, July has started off with 2 days of -SOI, which will shortly reverse as Tahiti goes much higher in advance of that anticipated strongly -SOI period. Tahiti dailies could reach as high as 1016.5-1017 for a couple of days.
All of this is implied when looking at Kingarabian's recent SOI predictions.

Looking at today's 5 day averaged 3.4 TAO based SST anomaly map, the far eastern 3.4 continues to slowly cool but this is compensated by areas further west. The area that is warmer than +1.0 continues to grow and is now including a small area north of the equator. The very warmest within this warmer than +1.0 area appears to be approaching +1.25.

[CourierPR]

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi predicts a weak Modici El Nino will develop.

[Kingarabian]

The 0Z GFS/Euro are in agreement that high Darwin SLPs will return around 7/9 and persist for awhile. However, there is disagreement regarding Tahiti. The GFS has it fairly unremarkable while the Euro has it much lower and is implying a strongly -SOI period starting near 7/9-10. The GFS seems to have had a high bias on Tahiti SLPs recently. So, I'm leaning to the Euro regarding Tahiti as of now. That means I'm leaning toward a solid -SOI period for at least several days starting around 7/9-10. Meanwhile, July has started off with 2 days of -SOI, which will shortly reverse as Tahiti goes much higher in advance of that anticipated strongly -SOI period. Tahiti dailies could reach as high as 1016.5-1017 for a couple of days.
All of this is implied when looking at Kingarabian's recent SOI predictions.

Looking at today's 5 day averaged 3.4 TAO based SST anomaly map, the far eastern 3.4 continues to slowly cool but this is compensated by areas further west. The area that is warmer than +1.0 continues to grow and is now including a small area north of the equator. The very warmest within this warmer than +1.0 area appears to be approaching +1.25.

Thanks for pointing out the Euro. I've been looking solely at the GFS in regards to the SOI and it has indeed been showing a more positive SOI. I'll post my GFS and Euro averages soon and I'll also attempt to incorporate LongPaddocks pressure adjustments.

By the way, can you comment on why the BoM and LondPaddock have different SOI's?

It's interesting to see a +1C anomaly so close to 140W. Solidifies the state of the -SOI and the fact there are no easterlies to resist the warming. NDG also found this nice link that shows the TAO levels in the Nino regions in more depth (it takes a while to load):

http://tao.ndbc.noaa.gov/refreshed/index.php



We can see +0.9C above the equator.

[LarryWx]

By the way, can you comment on why the BoM and LondPaddock have different SOI's?

It's interesting to see a +1C anomaly so close to 140W. Solidifies the state of the -SOI and the fact there are no easterlies to resist the warming. NDG also found this nice link that shows the TAO levels in the Nino regions in more depth (it takes a while to load):

http://tao.ndbc.noaa.gov/refreshed/index.php



We can see +0.9C above the equator.

1) I know nothing about the differences but I always use LP for consistency, especially since I often use their historical data.

2) Regarding that link from NGD to the in more depth Nino SST map, there's an inconsistency. That map has nothing warmer than +1.0. I don't get it.

[Kingarabian]

Here are my preliminary daily pressure averages from the GFS and the high res Euro for July 7 to July 11th.

Code: Select all

GFS:
July 07: Tahiti: 1016.00, Darwin: 1013.50
July 08: Tahiti: 1015.25, Darwin: 1013.75
July 09: Tahiti: 1014.25, Darwin: 1015.25
July 10: Tahiti: 1015.25, Darwin: 1016.50
July 11: Tahiti: 1016.25, Darwin: 1016.75
July 12: Tahiti: 1017.50, Darwin: 1017.25


Code: Select all

ECMWF:
July 07: Tahiti: 1015.50, Darwin: 1013.25
July 08: Tahiti: 1014.50, Darwin: 1013.75
July 09: Tahiti: 1014.00, Darwin: 1013.75
July 10: Tahiti: 1013.50, Darwin: 1014.00
July 11: Tahiti: 1012.75, Darwin: 1014.25
July 12: Tahiti: 1013.75, Darwin: 1014.50


Larry you are right, the Euro has considerably lower pressures over Tahiti.

For July 3 to July 6 it looks like a largely positive/neutral SOI for the most part.

[Ntxw]

This week will hold steady at 0.7C at the update

[LarryWx]

Per my eyeballs, the 5 day TAO map ending 7/2/17 looks like it warmed almost to +0.75 in Niño 3.4. from the last 2 days of closer to +0.70. Note that the warmer than +1.00 area has expanded even further. I estimate +0.50 for 120-140W and +0.90 for 140-170W. Weighting these gives me almost +0.75 (+0.74 to be more exact). Two days ago I estimated it near +0.67. I'm guessing this current warming is at least loosely related to the solid -SOIs of 2-3 weeks prior to 6/30 (the midpoint of the 5 day period) based on the 2-3 week lag that I've often seen. That being said, there's still no steady period of +SOIs following that that would lead to a significant cool-down anytime soon. That's not to say it can't cool back as ups and downs are common. But any significant cooling wouldn't be attributed to recent SOIs.
I see that Levi Cowan's graph has 3.4 cooling about 0.1 just since yesterday to only +0.439 fwiw though it has recently been 0.1 to 0.2 cooler than TAO for whatever reason.

[cycloneye]

CPC update of 7/3/17 that has Nino 3.4 again at +0.7C.

[LarryWx]

^Thanks, Luis. It looks like June as a whole was a solid +0.60 or even slightly warmer in 3.4 based on the monthly map. Also, the subsurface is slowly but steadily warming. It will be quite interesting to see the July model plume. I'll be quite surprised if it isn't warmer than the June plume. Some of the June runs for June, itself, were as cool as only +0.20!

[Ntxw]

^Thanks, Luis. It looks like June as a whole was a solid +0.60 or even slightly warmer in 3.4 based on the monthly map. Also, the subsurface is slowly but steadily warming. It will be quite interesting to see the July model plume. I'll be quite surprised if it isn't warmer than the June plume. Some of the June runs for June, itself, were as cool as only +0.20!

Ecmwf conglomerate forecast ended up a bit low on the June forecast as actual values were on the upper end of the bunch.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/char ... ure=plumes

ONI for AMJ should be out soon and I suspect it to be the first trimonthly of 0.5C given MAM was already 0.4C and March was cooler side.

[Kingarabian]

^Thanks, Luis. It looks like June as a whole was a solid +0.60 or even slightly warmer in 3.4 based on the monthly map. Also, the subsurface is slowly but steadily warming. It will be quite interesting to see the July model plume. I'll be quite surprised if it isn't warmer than the June plume. Some of the June runs for June, itself, were as cool as only +0.20!

You would think they would trend upward... CFS has been trending more cool neutral this past week. Its verification has to be tanking like a rock.

SOI came in at -8.3 today. So July is around -10.7 so far. But with positives on the way for the rest of this week, we may see it crawl back to -4 or -5 for the first week of July. Next week, it's going to be a crucial 2nd week.