ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Persistent trof there waiting tolakram

[RL3AO]

Using Levi's area averaged sounding tool, you can see when the shear will start to impact the system in 5 or 6 days.

[tolakram]

Persistent trof there waiting tolakram

What do you mean persistent?

12Z run to 192 hours. It's all in the timing IMO, I don't see any persistence.

[Alyono]

MU is weakening this north of the islands under very light upper level winds...

[tarheelprogrammer]

A wall of shear in the Caribbean, and above it as well on the GFS. No where to go without getting cut with the scissors at least to my untrained eyes. Still a long ways out, but all the models are hinting at this set up now. It would be typical of the last 5 years, so it seems realistic.

[Alyono]

Using Levi's area averaged sounding tool, you can see when the shear will start to impact the system in 5 or 6 days.

looks to be overdoing the weakening. It's acting as if it is running into 40 kt of shear

[Hurricane Andrew]

MU is weakening this north of the islands under very light upper level winds...

Seems questionable to me...

[TheStormExpert]

Using Levi's area averaged sounding tool, you can see when the shear will start to impact the system in 5 or 6 days.

looks to be overdoing the weakening. It's acting as if it is running into 40 kt of shear

Shear is shear even if it's 10-20kts.

[weathaguyry]

It doesn't make sense to me, shear isn't too bad, SST's are very warm, moisture is adequate, and this is not running into any sort of land area, so why are the models insisting that this will get torn apart?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Following the vort path on this run suggesting likely a weak storm over Florida.


first plot appears to be a TC that weakens from land interactions along the path.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS might have had the right idea of 94L developing in the Tropical Atlantic, but the Euro may win in terms of it being short-lived and dissipating north of 20N and west of 50W.

[RL3AO]

Then by day 7, it has cleared the TUTT/PV streamer and returns to a favorable environment south of a 594 ridge. Not sure if that 36 to 48 hours should rip apart a moderate/strong TS.

[SFLcane]

tolakram meaning unfavorable for threats coming from the east in terms of trofiness. Some say its luck past few years but its hard to lean either way honestly as i think its possible overall gerneral steering pattern has changed. Not complaining either way.

To add i think over favorable environment in the MDR " could " mean a rather active capeverde season.

[weathaguyry]

Then by day 7, it has cleared the TUTT/PV streamer and returns to a favorable environment south of a 594 ridge. Not sure if that 36 to 48 hours should rip apart a moderate/strong TS.

Something doesn't seem right, yes it may weaken a little going through that sort of environment, but it wouldn't completely shred a system

[tolakram]

A wall of shear in the Caribbean, and above it as well on the GFS. No where to go without getting cut with the scissors at least to my untrained eyes. Still a long ways out, but all the models are hinting at this set up now. It would be typical of the last 5 years, so it seems realistic.

Just like Andrew and Katrina? Sorry to be rather over the top but the idea that something will behave the same because that's what it did for the last few years is as unscientific and absurd as thinking this might be another one of 'those' storms. I believe this storm will behave NORMALLY which is struggling, sheared, and probably not very strong. It's July.

[Alyono]

Using Levi's area averaged sounding tool, you can see when the shear will start to impact the system in 5 or 6 days.

looks to be overdoing the weakening. It's acting as if it is running into 40 kt of shear

Shear is shear even if it's 10-20kts.

a TS can intensity under 10-20 kts of shear

[Kingarabian]

looks to be overdoing the weakening. It's acting as if it is running into 40 kt of shear

Shear is shear even if it's 10-20kts.

a TS can intensity under 10-20 kts of shear

Not always, see Adrian, Beatriz, and Calvin. Struggled with 10-15kts of shear under very high OHC/SST's.

[Alyono]

Shear is shear even if it's 10-20kts.

a TS can intensity under 10-20 kts of shear

Not always, see Adrian, Beatriz, and Calvin. Struggled with 10-15kts of shear under very high OHC/SST's.

think those had mid level shear, which is far more destructive as it disrupts the column far lower in the troposphere

[RL3AO]

Last one from me in this run. Wondering why a TC wouldn't intensify in an environment like this.

[tolakram]

What are the SST's in that area?

Answering my own question ...