2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Kingarabian]

Kinda reminds me of Matthew a bit in terms of early model detection and track. Are there any atmospheric signs that point to this not struggling as much as TD4?

As of right now it'll have to go through the same thing TD4 had to go through (according to the Euro Parallel).

[RL3AO]

Kinda reminds me of Matthew a bit in terms of early model detection and track. Are there any atmospheric signs that point to this not struggling as much as TD4?

GFS has it catching the window between this SAL that will kill TD 4 and the next one following the forecast hurricane.

[abajan]

20 hours ago, the ECMWF showed a tropical storm passing right over Barbados on Saturday of next week (July 15th). Now, the GFS shows a 971 mb hurricane doing the same thing, on the same day. Should I be concerned? (I realize Saturday of next week is still a good ways off, but what's your best guess?)

[cycloneye]

Loop of wave in West Africa.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[RL3AO]

20 hours ago, the ECMWF showed a tropical storm passing right over Barbados on Saturday of next week (July 15th). Now, the GFS shows a 971 mb hurricane doing the same thing, on the same day. Should I be concerned? (I realize Saturday of next week is still a good ways off, but what's your best guess?)

I wouldn't be concerned yet, but it's worth checking in on over the next few days. The low latitude will keep it away from the dry air for a while. We'll see if the Euro jumps back on board here.

[srva80]

Well atleast we know south florida is safe from the next one

[Hurricaneman]

Well atleast we know south florida is safe from the next one

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_49.png

Can't say that for sure, it has to develop first and then we can look at the track

[srva80]

Agreed, just being sarcatic

[RL3AO]

Loop of wave in West Africa.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Looks like the wave was around 5°E at 12z.

[Hurricaneman]

If the 12zEuro shows some development I'm going to start a thread on this system

[RL3AO]

Euro showing a well-defined wave/circulation off the coast of Africa. Those monsoon westerlies are really helping out.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Euro showing a well-defined wave/circulation off the coast of Africa. Those monsoon westerlies are really helping out.

No real consolidated vorticity max though, we shall see.

[SFLcane]

IF some of these runs pan out boy we are for some ride this season. Frankly if you asked me the signs of hyper active cv season ala 04 have been in place for a few weeks. We shall see

[RL3AO]

I would like to note the GFS and Euro have the wave moving about 25 knots over the eastern Atlantic. From Africa to 40W in 48 hours. GFS slows it down near genesis in about 5.5 to 6 days.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I would like to note the GFS and Euro have the wave moving about 25 knots over the eastern Atlantic. From Africa to 40W in 48 hours. GFS slows it down near genesis in about 5.5 to 6 days.

Yea, the 12z ECM is much faster with this wave then the 0z through 144 hours. The ECM is also far weaker than the GFS at that time.

[cycloneye]

We have a thread for that wave so let's post the model runs there.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118829&p=2587880#p2587880

[Blinhart]

Well atleast we know south florida is safe from the next one

So is this the first Super Major Hurricane of the models for this season, haven't really been following that much this season yet, I really don't start following until after July 15th when the season really starts heating up.

[Blinhart]

My question about all the models and computer systems, have they put in the Polar movement that happens every year. If I remember correctly over the past 25 years the North Pole has moved about a mile, so that would change a lot of things in the formulas used in the models and guidance would be changed. Also the impact of the Sun activity has to be put into the computers also, and since the Sun is about to go into the "inactive" phase that should have an effect on the systems. There are so many variables that have to be constantly changed in the formulas that it must be a total mess, I am glad I'm not in charge of that.

[Alyono]

some signs in the models that there may be something forming off of the East Coast late next week. General area of troughiness with signs that a low pressure system may consolidate. Likely to move out to sea, however

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/884454845029265409