Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Kingarabian]

Model comparisons @ 240hrs. GFS, GFS-Parallel, and ECMWF:

[USTropics]

Basically sums up the GFS.

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneCity/status/883089699723718656

To be fair, you could basically say that for every model if we're using the span of 10 years

As for this AOI, I wouldn't even really consider intensity forecasts at this point. Overall trends are for a potent wave to cross the Windward/Leeward islands in about 7-8 days.

[Ivanhater]

Intensifying and headed for gulf Coast

[TheStormExpert]

The 18z GFS looks very similar to Hurricane Dennis(2005), except it goes over Hispaniola.

[SFLcane]

00z will be into CA..

[Ivanhater]

Major hurricane into northwest Florida

[AutoPenalti]

Major hurricane into northwest Florida

GFS

Getting
Florida
Scared




Stil holds its name.


Love it.

[MetroMike]

18Z GFS delays development of a TC just East of the islands runs it up eventually up the West Coast of Florida this time as a 980mb TC around July 21.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18Z GFS delays development of a TC just East of the islands runs it up eventually up the West Coast of Florida this time as a 980mb TC around July 21.

Should trust the ECMWF, and until that model shows it the GFS is not believable. ECMWF has a weak TD at best throughout its run. It did have a TS a few runs ago I believe.

[Florida1118]

18Z GFS delays development of a TC just East of the islands runs it up eventually up the West Coast of Florida this time as a 980mb TC around July 21.

Should trust the ECMWF, and until that model shows it the GFS is not believable. ECMWF has a weak TD at best throughout its run. It did have a TS a few runs ago I believe.

I feel like we've discussed this over and over; why is there this need to trash a particular model or take model guidance as an absolute? Model guidance is just that - guidance. Even if the Euro happened to show a hurricane tonight, it doesn't make the scenario of a strong hurricane in the Caribbean next week suddenly a believable event, especially 10 days out. The European does not have that much of a skill lead on the GFS, and it has been fooled plenty of times. The overall guidance suggests a tropical cyclone is possible in the area in the next week, perhaps it would be better to leave it at then keep playing the model superiority game.

[Kingarabian]

Big change:

12z Euro Parallel down to 996mb and it's very very south, makes a landfall over SA at one point.

Let's see if the 00z Euro follows suit.

[cycloneye]

Big change:

12z Euro Parallel down to 996mb and it's very very south, makes a landfall over SA at one point.

Let's see if the 00z Euro follows suit.

That is big news.Do you have a graphic?

[Kingarabian]

Big change:

12z Euro Parallel down to 996mb and it's very very south, makes a landfall over SA at one point.

Let's see if the 00z Euro follows suit.

That is big news.Do you have a graphic?

Can't post it unfortunately. But I'll draw a graphic later. But this thing is hugging the SA coast.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Big change:

12z Euro Parallel down to 996mb and it's very very south, makes a landfall over SA at one point.

Let's see if the 00z Euro follows suit.

That is big news.Do you have a graphic?

[TheStormExpert]

Is this the Euro taking over in the next few weeks? If so what kind of environment does it paint for this potential system?

[cycloneye]

Oh boy.A rare landfall for ABC islands.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Is this the Euro taking over in the next few weeks? If so what kind of environment does it paint for this potential system?

Yes, in 5 days. The parallel shows an anticyclone over the eastern Caribbean, so shear isn't an issue. Biggest impediment would be proximity to South America.

[TheStormExpert]

Oh boy.A rare landfall for ABC islands.

Didn't Bret make landfall there recently?

[Alyono]

Oh boy.A rare landfall for ABC islands.

they NARROWLY missed a cat 5 last year

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z GFS remaining quite vigorous with the wave in question once it reaches the Caribbean.

JMO, likely convective feedback. The GFS did the same exact thing with TD 4.