#180 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:32 pm
dexterlabio wrote:Kingarabian wrote:weathaguyry wrote:Honestly, this just proves to me that conditions in the EPAC are not as favorable as they have been in years prior, instead of having widespread areas of low shear and warm water, you have these pockets that allow for RI for only about 24hrs. or so, then the storm quickly dies off
Sure we're not seeing super el nino conditions, but no one called for their to be so. We've had a cat.2 and a cat.3, with more storms in the forecast and it's only July. Storm numbers are above average, just need ACE to catch up.
Yeah, the fact that this made it up to strong Cat3 status. If it were really unfavorable in the EPAC, Eugene wouldn't even make it to Cat1, more so a named TS. We would have a disorganized TD instead.
I was pointing out that overall there are only pockets of very favorable environment, so the storms ramp up as quick as they die off, we aren't seeing any of the long- tracked hurricanes we have seen in prior years (ex. Blas of last year) that could very well change, but remember 94E that could not get it's act together, also the EPAC average is 15/8/3, so something like that seems more likely this year as opposed to numbers such as 22/13/6 like we saw last year
Last edited by
weathaguyry on Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
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