2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#701 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:03 am

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/885511520066686976




Michael Lowry
African dust over the tropical Atlantic this summer has been the *lowest* observed since 2005. The dust typically peaks by early-mid July.
10:49 AM - 13 Jul 2017
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#702 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:21 am

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#703 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:42 am

When does the July update of the Euro MSLP graphic for ASO come out?
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#704 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:46 am

TheStormExpert wrote:When does the July update of the Euro MSLP graphic for ASO come out?


15th.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#705 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:46 pm

Something to keep in mind when it comes to the longer range velocity potential forecasts entering August. (Looking at Eric Blake's tweet)

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/885530261538189312


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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#706 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:When does the July update of the Euro MSLP graphic for ASO come out?


15th.


there was little change with the July update
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#707 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:11 pm

This season smells like 2004.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#708 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:28 pm

I kind of like that there are no good historical analogs for this season. Perhaps some new predictors will be discovered that often go unnoticed due to the usual fixation on ENSO.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#709 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:04 pm

We are about to hit mid-July, when is peak exactly?

Mid-August?
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#710 Postby WeatherHoon » Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:08 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:We are about to hit mid-July, when is peak exactly?

Mid-August?


September 10th
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#711 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:14 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:We are about to hit mid-July, when is peak exactly?

Mid-August?


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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#712 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:03 pm

Atlantic convection is doing pretty well considering we're in the suppressive phase of the MJO.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#713 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:50 pm

Hammy wrote:Atlantic convection is doing pretty well considering we're in the suppressive phase of the MJO.

That's a sign for later in the month into early August that around that time the lid may come off and here come the storms
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#714 Postby Weather150 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:15 am

Consensus also looks like the lowering of pressures won't be until after the 25th of July, as GFS, Euro, and CMC all not showing it happening until a few days after that date. I am not buying this MDR storm and Atlantic will continue to be in sleep mode for the next 10 days to even perhaps finishing the month.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#715 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 14, 2017 1:12 pm

RL3AO wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:We are about to hit mid-July, when is peak exactly?

Mid-August?


http://i.imgur.com/kzA3sIs.png


You can see from this chart we are in the climatologically slowest time for the hurricane season when looking at the first half leading up the peak Sept 10th. It is even slower than June. So everybody enjoy it because indicators to me indicate it will be quite busy once things ramp up in August.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#716 Postby JPmia » Fri Jul 14, 2017 1:49 pm

So since we're in a slow period.. do we have any data points, graphs, charts, maps, that hint at the upcoming track patterns we should see this season? I've seen some comments and maps at Tropical Tidbits that point to 2004 as an analog? I am always looking for clues to get past what seems to be randomness each year.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#717 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:30 pm

JPmia wrote:So since we're in a slow period.. do we have any data points, graphs, charts, maps, that hint at the upcoming track patterns we should see this season? I've seen some comments and maps at Tropical Tidbits that point to 2004 as an analog? I am always looking for clues to get past what seems to be randomness each year.


We all try to get pass the randomness but unfortunately there will probably always be a good
Amount , so many small differences effect the amount of storms and their paths.
Even in one given year you may have most all the storms recurve in the Atlantic then one
sneaks by and affects land.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#718 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:17 pm

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#719 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:24 am

ECMWF July update of MSLP for ASO.

Image
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#720 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:45 am

:uarrow: Starting to think there's something wrong with the Euro MSLP graphic. Remember last month it was showing higher pressures worldwide.
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