ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#8501 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:12 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if we go -neutral at some point but as always it seems we have a long way to go when it comes to ENSO forecasting
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8502 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:40 pm

LarryWx wrote:Both Levi's satellite based SSTs and the TAO maps have shown impressive cooling down to below +0.5 in Niño 3.4. Is El Niño dead like many models have been suggesting? I still see no return to a solid -SOI string anytime soon in the 0Z Euro.


There's still a good amount of +1.0C anomalies above 100meters. Looks like Nino 3.4 is at +0.4C currently.

Image

And the GFS continues to weaken the trades through the end of July.

http://i.imgur.com/eoL1X8H.gif
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8503 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:04 pm

LarryWx wrote:Both Levi's satellite based SSTs and the TAO maps have shown impressive cooling down to below +0.5 in Niño 3.4. Is El Niño dead like many models have been suggesting? I still see no return to a solid -SOI string anytime soon in the 0Z Euro.

It's been dead for months. We're not going to see anything resembling an El Nino with easterlies screaming across the Date Line. ENSO region temps are falling for a reason.
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO is +0.79

#8504 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:10 pm

Ntxw wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:Would very warm anomalies east of Japan be indicative of a less positive PDO?


It does

That'll be an interesting area to watch over the coming couple of weeks with so much tropical activity in the WPac north of 20ºN.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8505 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:18 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Both Levi's satellite based SSTs and the TAO maps have shown impressive cooling down to below +0.5 in Niño 3.4. Is El Niño dead like many models have been suggesting? I still see no return to a solid -SOI string anytime soon in the 0Z Euro.

It's been dead for months. We're not going to see anything resembling an El Nino with easterlies screaming across the Date Line. ENSO region temps are falling for a reason.


Not everything has to do with the tropical Atlantic basin and wind shear. Just because a weak El Nino is not felt as much in the Atlantic, does not mean it has zero effects elsewhere. El Nino's can have massive winter effects on CONUS especially a central pacific based one. And for technicality's sake, its been @ average +0.5C since April, so I don't know how its been dead for months.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8506 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:26 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Both Levi's satellite based SSTs and the TAO maps have shown impressive cooling down to below +0.5 in Niño 3.4. Is El Niño dead like many models have been suggesting? I still see no return to a solid -SOI string anytime soon in the 0Z Euro.

It's been dead for months. We're not going to see anything resembling an El Nino with easterlies screaming across the Date Line. ENSO region temps are falling for a reason.


Not everything has to do with the tropical Atlantic basin and wind shear. Just because a weak El Nino is not felt as much in the Atlantic, does not mean it has zero effects elsewhere. El Nino's can have massive winter effects on CONUS especially a central pacific based one. And for technicality's sake, its been @ average +0.5C since April, so I don't know how its been dead for months.

We're not going to have a central-based El Nino when easterly trade winds have been screaming across the IDL for a month now with no end in sight. I haven't mentioned the Atlantic. Between the trades and the low AAM, we are in Neutral right now and should remain there for the rest of the year, even if 3.4 anoms have been flirting with 0.5C before recently.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8507 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:32 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:It's been dead for months. We're not going to see anything resembling an El Nino with easterlies screaming across the Date Line. ENSO region temps are falling for a reason.


Not everything has to do with the tropical Atlantic basin and wind shear. Just because a weak El Nino is not felt as much in the Atlantic, does not mean it has zero effects elsewhere. El Nino's can have massive winter effects on CONUS especially a central pacific based one. And for technicality's sake, its been @ average +0.5C since April, so I don't know how its been dead for months.

We're not going to have a central-based El Nino when easterly trade winds have been screaming across the IDL for a month now with no end in sight. I haven't mentioned the Atlantic. Between the trades and the low AAM, we are in Neutral right now and should remain there for the rest of the year, even if 3.4 anoms have been flirting with 0.5C before recently.


We've had easterlies dominating the region since May with a variance in their strengths yet the warmest water remains in the CPac. That being said as soon as ONI falls off, then we can declare it dead IMO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8508 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:42 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Both Levi's satellite based SSTs and the TAO maps have shown impressive cooling down to below +0.5 in Niño 3.4. Is El Niño dead like many models have been suggesting? I still see no return to a solid -SOI string anytime soon in the 0Z Euro.


There's still a good amount of +1.0C anomalies above 100meters. Looks like Nino 3.4 is at +0.4C currently.

http://i.imgur.com/BdgYkCX.png

And the GFS continues to weaken the trades through the end of July.

http://i.imgur.com/eoL1X8H.gif


It has continued to cool down this week, the +1.0C that was on the image from last week is no longer on it and notice how the immediate equatorial waters have cooled down from last week.
I am thinking that it is down to at least +0.3C this week.

Image
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8509 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:52 pm

when we see elnNino florida could see very storm winter in fl we saw a lot tornado doing last elnNino here i hearing we now between elnNino and La Niña how do next year look for La Niña? or more of elnNino
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8510 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:52 pm

floridasun78 wrote:when we see elnNino florida could see very storm winter in fl we saw a lot tornado doing last elnNino here i hearing we now between elnNino and La Niña how do next year look for La Niña? or more of elnNino


Hey FL, Predicting the ENSO for the winter of 2018-9 is very difficult. We're stil trying to get a good feel for 2017-8!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8511 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 27, 2017 5:13 pm

Hey Larry, latest 12z Euro has the SOI up in the air in the first week of August.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8512 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jul 27, 2017 8:28 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Hey Larry, latest 12z Euro has the SOI up in the air in the first week of August.


Yeah, I see that. Tahiti isn't progged to be as high as earlier runs while Darwin is mainly within the 1013-1014 area per the 12Z Euro. It does look fairly neutral for a change and there could even be some modest -SOI days then per this run. We'll see. Regardless, this potential El Niño is struggling bigtime and may very well be dead. It needs a lot of help, stat! I don't know that its formerly very good chances in my mind can get revived. TAO and Levi maps at least suggest it is done and there'd need to be a monumental reversal.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8513 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:02 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Hey Larry, latest 12z Euro has the SOI up in the air in the first week of August.


We'll see. Regardless, this potential El Niño is struggling bigtime and may very well be dead. It needs a lot of help, stat! I don't know that its formerly very good chances in my mind can get revived. TAO and Levi maps at least suggest it is done and there'd need to be a monumental reversal.


GFS in its 850mb zonal wind forecast for next week is adamant in having a decent westerly burst over Nino 3 and Nino 1+2. That should help negate cooling and promote some warming for the first week of August. For Nino 3.4, it relaxes the easterlies some, so with the warming of Nino 3, Nino 3.4 will get some relief as well - especially since there's still a good amount of +1.0c anomalies above 100 meters in the latest subsurface frame.

After that, the SOI needs to tank again or else August won't average high enough for the third tri monthly on the ONI.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8514 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:53 pm

It does look like from the TAO/Triton maps 0.2C or 0.3C might be reasonable for the call on Monday
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8515 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:16 pm

Ntxw wrote:It does look like from the TAO/Triton maps 0.2C or 0.3C might be reasonable for the call on Monday


Indeed, the cooling continues 8-)

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8516 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:31 pm

Ntxw wrote:It does look like from the TAO/Triton maps 0.2C or 0.3C might be reasonable for the call on Monday



How warm does August's 4 week average need for a 3rd trimonthly?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8517 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:38 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Hey Larry, latest 12z Euro has the SOI up in the air in the first week of August.


Yeah, I see that. Tahiti isn't progged to be as high as earlier runs while Darwin is mainly within the 1013-1014 area per the 12Z Euro. It does look fairly neutral for a change and there could even be some modest -SOI days then per this run. We'll see.


12z Euro today dropped Tahiti pressures further (And Darwin's):

ECMWF 12z July 28:
August 1: Tahiti: 15.25, Darwin: 14.25
August 2: Tahiti: 14.75, Darwin: 13.50
August 3: Tahiti: 14.75, Darwin: 13.25
August 4: Tahiti: 14.00, Darwin: 13.25
August 5: Tahiti: 14.50, Darwin: 13.25
August 6: Tahiti: 14.00, Darwin: 13.50
August 7: Tahiti: 14.00, Darwin: 13.25
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8518 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 28, 2017 9:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:It does look like from the TAO/Triton maps 0.2C or 0.3C might be reasonable for the call on Monday



How warm does August's 4 week average need for a 3rd trimonthly?


I'm not certain, ONI dataset is an enigma to me given ERSST's conservative smoothing. I think the weeklies at least need to stay at 0.4C or higher
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8519 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jul 30, 2017 5:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:It does look like from the TAO/Triton maps 0.2C or 0.3C might be reasonable for the call on Monday


It could even be as low as +0.1 imo!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8520 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jul 30, 2017 5:43 pm

LarryWx wrote:With TAO and the weeklies having recently cooled 0.2+ and the July SOI headed for a sold +, I have no choice but to reduce the odds in my mind for an oncoming El Nino this year. Previously, I had said the chances were "very good".

If one wants El Nino, one cannot like how high Tahiti's SLP is going to end up this month. For 7/1-20. it is averaging 1015. I'm projecting it will approach or even reach 1019 tomorrow and still be near 1018 the day after. Here are my educated guesses for the rest of the month based on the 12Z models:

7/21: 1019
7/22: 1018
7/23: 1016.5
7/24: 1015
7/25: 1014.5
7/26: 1014
7/27: 1014.5
7/28: 1015
7/29: 1015
7/30: 1015

If the above projections were to come close to verifying, the full July 2017 Tahiti averaged SLP would come out to ~1015.2, which is a full mb above the longterm average for all years since 1950. That 1015.2 may even be a little conservatively low as the EPS would imply that it get up to ~1015.35. Here are some Tahiti averages for various oncoming ENSO:

Strong Nino: 1013.4
Weak to Mod Nino: 1013.9
Weak to mod Nina: 1014.3
Strong Nina: 1015.2

So, Tahiti's 2017 SLP is now projected to come in near the average for an oncoming strong La Nina. As a matter of fact, every single instance of Tahiti being 1015.0+ in July since 1950 (8 of them) was an oncoming La Nina year. OTOH, every single one of those 8 cases had an AMJ trimonthly Nino 3.4 that was negative vs 2017's +0.5. So, I'm not at all saying it means we're likely headed for La Nina. But I am saying that the chances for El Nino have dropped quite a bit in my mind over the last month. Consider this: for every El Nino since 1950 that was oncoming (24 of them), Tahiti's SLP was never higher than 1014.7!


After being too low at Tahiiti by ~1 mb/day for the first few days, the last few days have come in higher by over 1 mb/day. Translation: the full July, 2017, average Tahiti SLP is once again aiming for a very unfriendly to El Nino ~1015.2.
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