Possible Gulf Development (INVEST 98L is up)

[Ivanhater]

Front is currently sweeping through the Northern Gulf Coast. 12Z GFS coming in stronger as well as the 12Z Canadian.

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 28.2N 85.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.07.2017 48 28.2N 85.7W 1010 27
0000UTC 01.08.2017 60 28.6N 86.0W 1011 26
1200UTC 01.08.2017 72 28.8N 87.0W 1012 24
0000UTC 02.08.2017 84 28.7N 86.8W 1011 20
1200UTC 02.08.2017 96 29.0N 85.1W 1013 22
0000UTC 03.08.2017 108 29.4N 83.3W 1014 21
1200UTC 03.08.2017 120 CEASED TRACKING

[northjaxpro]

Well it is certainly possible this time of year when we can get the rare occasion of getting an abnormal strong frontal system get stationary to the Gulf Coast region or even off the SE U.S. Atlantic coast. This type of set-up can spawn homegrown tropical or subtropical development. Therefore, it is something to watch for sure and we'll see if how many other models jump on board.

[Ivanhater]

12z UKMET

[Emmett_Brown]

A classic spot for home grown July storms. GFS has it in the NE GOM getting down to 1009 mb in 36 hours, doesn't do much with it after that. ECMWF shows a weaker low down near Tampa Monday night... and CMC and UKMET show it, so there is some model agreement of something weak drifting around the NE GOM for the next few days.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the tail end of the front is bringing an upper level anti-cyclonic feature with it.

[marionstorm]

Isn't the shear in the Gulf way too high for development?

[Steve]

Isn't the shear in the Gulf way too high for development?

Not in the eventual eddy (NE of the nose of the front). Could be a frontal low as well and possibly one of the next 3 or so the GFS has been showing moving out NE off the US East Coast in a few days. Could be a random named spin up, but it won't be much.

[ronjon]

Was thinking of starting this thread earlier with stalled front and upper level energy. Would likely have to acquire tropical characteristics from initially cold core system. But it is forecast to meander around the NE GOM for 2-3 days so it's possible to become a TD or TS. Models so far only showing weak low pressure but Euro, GFS, NAM, GEM, and UKMET all showing low pressure development.

[Ivanhater]

It's the NAM, but

[floridasun78]

could make Florida more rainy we already have good storms in fl this past few days

[Nimbus]

Watching the surface pressure as the front sinks into the gulf.

Lowest surface pressures about 63 miles south of Douphin Island, AL 1011.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42040&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

[Steve]

18z NAM 3k is interesting. Surface low pressure mulls around the NE Gulf for a couple of days, gets to 1006mb and slides down toward Tampa and fills in a bit and lifts. That moves and lowest pressure by 60 hours is in the mid Gulf at 1011mb. 12km moves one circulation across NE FL and spins up another one that eventually retrogrades then shifts back NE and hits around Panama City at the end of the run at 1012. Weak steering currents and a block apparently. Good thing this isn't a few weeks later.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

I hoped that these of either all of these developments will never be named as Emily... give her this time a chance for real retirement run. And i want to see Emma coming out of it.

[Steve]

No retirement if it gets named. I think TD or low end TS is top potential. But it would be interesting to see any development, particularly something unexpected 7/31 or 8/1. I don't follow the MJO and CCKW stuff as much as I should. But when the Euro showed MJO wasn't going to stay in 5-6 and would progress to 7, and with the first kelvin wave close to being in an enhancing phase here, it would be cool to see something spin up. It's short term so we can watch what happens. I'm looking forward to the mesoscale models at 00z. You can't discount them in this particular circumstance. Also, radar derived models that better local weather stations have, have been known to sometimes succeed with systems forming north of 25-26 or so.

Edit to say 00z NAM 12km is mostly 1009mb showing most rain up toward Lake City then eventually down near Tampa. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=89

[Steve]

And 3km NAM hits around Franklin County as 1013ish but lots of rain for southern Georgia.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 29&ypos=78

Edit in to say that GFS drops it south and then moves across Florida and "re-pulses" off the SE Coast. This is a different scenario than the NAM, so it's a nice comparison and contrast for 3ish days out.

[tropicwatch]

We are sitting around 1010.5mb's right now in Panama City and convection is starting to flare up just offshore of Apalachicola and south of Mississippi.

[South Texas Storms]

0z models have backed off on development from the 12z runs.

[Nimbus]

There is low surface pressure near ~1010mb from Panama city all the way west to buoy 42040 south of Dauphin Island. Usually the lows cut off and form at the western ends of the gulf fronts, so south of Mobile bay will be a good place to blob watch.

You don't get model style convective feedback problems from a satellite loop with a buoy recording surface pressures and surface wind data nearby.

[northjaxpro]

Latest surface analysis from NHC/WPC shows a surface trough just ahead of the frontal boundary in the extreme Northern /NE GOM. The trough extends eastward across extreme North Florida at this hour. The actual frontal boundary is sitting right along the coast from TX to FL panhandle.

Getting some very heavy thunderstorms right at dawn this morning here at my weather station currently. Also, barometric pressure reading is at 1009.3 mb here.