ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#161 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:32 pm

RL3AO wrote:Of course by day 9, we've gone from a sub-540 dm trough over Hudson Bay during the 12z run to a 582 dm ridge over Hudson Bay at 18z. This is why we take the track with a big grain of salt. :lol:


It's still fun... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#162 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:33 pm

Blown Away wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:936mb at 204 hours, north of DR


Maybe the "turn" starting at 204??? Maybe not HP looking to build W???


Maybe it goes north, but ridge builds in and it grazes the East Coast?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#163 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:34 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Ridge looks to be filling in at 210...Florida might take it on the chin this run!!!


GFS 500mb, huge difference between 12z/18z...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#164 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:36 pm

The pattern supports a close call to the SE US if something develops and survives. It's gonna be one to watch.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#165 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:37 pm

Making NNW turn at 234hrs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#166 Postby Dylan » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:38 pm

The Shortwave over the Midwest is going to spare Florida. The Carolinas may not be so lucky on this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#167 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:39 pm

paralleling FL coast at 240 hours at 936mb :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#168 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:40 pm

Dylan wrote:The Shortwave over the Midwest is going to spare Florida. The Carolinas may not be so lucky on this run.


Yeah, the track is making my stomach a little jumpy here on Long Island
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#169 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:42 pm

weathaguyry wrote:paralleling FL coast at 240 hours at 936mb :eek:


Still NW movement at 240 hours and just E of N Bahamas...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#170 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:42 pm

Making a beeline for Wilmington, NC at 264hrs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#171 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:42 pm

If this is Franklin that model run's looking like another "F" storm, Floyd.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#172 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:42 pm

I gather there was no TUTT near -60, -70W this run?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#173 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:43 pm

Nimbus wrote:I gather there was no TUTT near -60, -70W this run?


It's trended weaker with that upper low during the last few runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#174 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:44 pm

Dylan wrote:The Shortwave over the Midwest is going to spare Florida. The Carolinas may not be so lucky on this run.


I was just getting ready to mention that a trough is being shown 10 days out.

It is all about timing of these features. It is going to be challenging times ahead . Very interesting period coming up. Right on cue, the tropics have really begun to ramp up right as we turned the calendar into August.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#175 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:44 pm

Pummels the OBX and ends up around Virginia Beach at 288 hrs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#176 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:45 pm

And now a nice omega block to let it ride up the east coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#177 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:46 pm

weathaguyry wrote:paralleling FL coast at 240 hours at 936mb :eek:


Surfer's Paradise off of the East Coast...Erosion and rip currents will be a nightmare though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#178 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:47 pm

Wow, that is a Major cane, probably 4/5 just off Florida and solid 3 into Carolinas... :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#179 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:48 pm

E of Atlantic City, NJ at 300 hours, headed towards Cape Cod
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#180 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:50 pm

Well that was entertaining. It's like having the old GFS back again.
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