2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[tarheelprogrammer]

https://twitter.com/cfanclimate/status/893954396991520769


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What does that mean?

[Hurricaneman]

https://twitter.com/cfanclimate/status/893954396991520769


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What does that mean?

Lots of activity I would think

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://twitter.com/cfanclimate/status/893954396991520769


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

What does that mean?

Lots of activity I would think

This must be wrong. The season was already cancelled right? right?

/S

[Alyono]

that mentioned graphic seems to be saying expect near normal conditions. Some areas above normal, others below normal

[Steve]

I'm sure we aren't near record precipitation across most of the northern and northeastern Gulf this year. But the timing of sustained late July and August rains here and even moreso the farther east you get particularly between PCB and Cedar Key, makes me wonder if we are in and might stay in a wet pattern through the hurricane season. I guess in some ways it hasn't been that hot. And higher rivers dumping fresh water along the shelf may end up limiting potential. But CFSV2 had us below average rain which was curious given some of the overall signals. I don't know. Here's a 2.5 minute video from my neighborhood today. April or May of tropical you'd expect it to flood. But damn.
https://youtu.be/z8XRxKOXTIo

[bamajammer4eva]

I'm sure we aren't near record precipitation across most of the northern and northeastern Gulf this year. But the timing of sustained late July and August rains here and even moreso the farther east you get particularly between PCB and Cedar Key, makes me wonder if we are in and might stay in a wet pattern through the hurricane season. I guess in some ways it hasn't been that hot. And higher rivers dumping fresh water along the shelf may end up limiting potential. But CFSV2 had us below average rain which was curious given some of the overall signals. I don't know. Here's a 2.5 minute video from my neighborhood today. April or May of tropical you'd expect it to flood. But damn.
https://youtu.be/z8XRxKOXTIo

It seems hard to say anything about patterns as far as tropical season goes. I have noticed a lot of times wet areas stay wet and end up getting a tropical system (like happens in the Carolinas) and we have been rather cool and wet along the Gulf Coast this year so that might be concerning. We haven't even officially reached 100 here and August is well underway-awesome!! I can also remember seeing Texas under hurricane warnings for Ike (or was it Rita) but under heat advisories at the same time as they were evacuating.

[Hammy]

Something interesting I noticed after doing a quick check--1979 (the last year that had an MDR storm in June) had several fronts push into the Gulf in early and middle August, accompanied by a largely quiet EPAC and active Atlantic ITCZ/westerlies but nothing forming; the EPAC picked up in the second half of August, followed by the Atlantic less than two weeks later--and that year featured David, a track similar to what this year's steering currents might produce should we get a storm in the next few weeks.

[Kingarabian]

The sinking motion in the Atlantic can potentially be a dangerous one. It'll keep MDR systems weaker thus giving them time to move west and find favorable conditions closer to land areas. Then if there's a trough to pick systems up, these MDR systems may not clear land OR it'll give time for high pressure to reestablish itself and continue to force systems west possibly into land areas.

[SFLcane]

(Phil K) is calling for above average activity next 2 weeks but I don't know we're that's gonna come from. For now we watch 90L possibly RI in BOC. No threat to US

[tarheelprogrammer]

(Phil K) is calling for above average activity next 2 weeks but I don't know we're that's gonna come from. For now we watch 90L possibly RI in BOC. No threat to US

Yeah models seemed to show the lid coming off, but behind these two invests it seems the models are quiet once again. There are strong waves rolling off Africa one after another, but none of them are developing. Could be that the MDR is quiet again. They may need to change the name from MDR to NMDR

[TheStormExpert]

Usually when there is this much talk of the season being a bust or quiet it ends up happening. I understand people want to wait 2-4 more weeks before calling it but I currently have a really hard time seeing this season meeting the expectations that most are forecasting.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Usually when there is this much talk of the season being a bust or quiet it ends up happening. I understand people want to wait 2-4 more weeks before calling it but I currently have a really hard time seeing this season meeting the expectations that most are forecasting.

It is not even peak season yet nor are we past peak season..... We could possibly by at 7/1/0 by next Friday heading into the peak with forecasters even raising the number of named storms. We are on par with 2016 so far and could even pull ahead heading into the next few weeks. How is this a bust?

[TheStormExpert]

Usually when there is this much talk of the season being a bust or quiet it ends up happening. I understand people want to wait 2-4 more weeks before calling it but I currently have a really hard time seeing this season meeting the expectations that most are forecasting.

It is not even peak season yet nor are we past peak season..... We could possibly by at 7/1/0 by next Friday heading into the peak with forecasters even raising the number of named storms. We are on par with 2016 so far. How is this a bust?

Where are you coming up with an additional two storms by next Friday? The only game in town right now is 90L/future Franklin which could likely become a short-lived major in the BoC bringing us to 6/1/1 if that happens. Last year by this date we were at 5/2/0 for what it's worth. What has me really concerned is seeing the models showing nothing out to day 16 (August 22nd).

[AxaltaRacing24]

Usually when there is this much talk of the season being a bust or quiet it ends up happening. I understand people want to wait 2-4 more weeks before calling it but I currently have a really hard time seeing this season meeting the expectations that most are forecasting.

It is not even peak season yet nor are we past peak season..... We could possibly by at 7/1/0 by next Friday heading into the peak with forecasters even raising the number of named storms. We are on par with 2016 so far. How is this a bust?

Where are you coming up with an additional two storms by next Friday? The only game in town right now is 90L/future Franklin which could likely become a short-lived major in the BoC bringing us to 6/1/1 if that happens. Last year by this date we were at 5/2/0 for what it's worth. What has me really concerned is seeing the models showing nothing out to day 16 (August 22nd).

This can tend to be deceiving due to less model storms showing up in the globals (mainly the CMC and GFS). The overall pattern in the models is hinting at better conditions in the next few weeks. We will see storms/hurricanes after 8/20 as we near the peak for sure.

[Hammy]

There are many points I'd like to make, so for the sake of not spamming consecutive posts, I'll make them all here.

Yeah models seemed to show the lid coming off, but behind these two invests it seems the models are quiet once again. There are strong waves rolling off Africa one after another, but none of them are developing. Could be that the MDR is quiet again. They may need to change the name from MDR to NMDR

Last year by this date we were at 5/2/0 for what it's worth. What has me really concerned is seeing the models showing nothing out to day 16 (August 22nd).

Just a week ago the models showed nothing at all for the entire forecast period. The GFS upgrade seems completely unable to form anything unless a wave or invest is actually physically there, and the Euro has always been conservative. Two systems have since formed--they can't be trusted beyond about 3-4 days at the moment. The models are not set in stone. And as an aside, last year featured a hurricane in January (just six weeks after the 2015 season ended), which doesn't exactly happen often so that can't really be used for comparison. Active seasons such as 1988, 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2011 (just to name a few) had their first hurricane well after this point.

Usually when there is this much talk of the season being a bust or quiet it ends up happening. I understand people want to wait 2-4 more weeks before calling it but I currently have a really hard time seeing this season meeting the expectations that most are forecasting.

There was talk of the season being a bust last year as well. And 2012. And 2010, 2004, etc. I can only imagine what would happen here if we have a 1999 repeat, where we don't have anything between June 17 and Aug 17, or if like 1979 we go until Aug 25 without another storm.

[Ntxw]

1999 had a very strong La Nina kick in. A top 5 event since 1950.

2012 ENSO wise might be a better match

[Hammy]

1999 had a very strong La Nina kick in. A top 5 event since 1950.

2012 ENSO wise might be a better match

What were 1979's conditions? That's one I'm keeping an eye on as an analog as there have been similarities already.

[Ntxw]

1999 had a very strong La Nina kick in. A top 5 event since 1950.

2012 ENSO wise might be a better match

What were 1979's conditions? That's one I'm keeping an eye on as an analog as there have been similarities already.

It was warm neutral that turned into a weak El Nino by SON. With +PDO 1979 may not be too dissimilar to 2004

[gatorcane]

Africa looks to be getting busy again:

[Ntxw]

Both 2004 and 1979 are right next to each other as very quiet EPAC seasons during overall +PDO regimes. That probably helped the Atlantic