ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Alyono]

large size will mean more flooding and mudslides come Thursday

[Bocadude85]

Inner core has essentially collapsed based on NHC discussion, and with that happening before it even mores onshore and given the shear forecasts are often underestimated, I'm betting against hurricane intensity in the BoC. Probably slightly stronger than it currently is at most.

None of the global models were calling for a hurricane prior to crossing the Yucatán. So I'm not really surprised we don't have a cane, I would say that the chances of a cane in the BOC are significantly higher.

[beoumont]

core may tighten up a bit crossing the Yucatan

That might very well happen, with the excellent outflow and upper air conditions ahead.

But, I seem to recall several well developed storms crossing Yucatan, then coming out in the Bay of Canned Peaches and very large eyes ((50-70+ miles across) developed. I wondered why that happened.

We will see what happens this time.

Diana 1990, below, entered Yucatan on Aug. 5th with 55 knt. winds and 994 mb pressure. Eventually she reached 85 knts, with 980 mbs. in the Gulf.

[Hammy]

Inner core has essentially collapsed based on NHC discussion, and with that happening before it even mores onshore and given the shear forecasts are often underestimated, I'm betting against hurricane intensity in the BoC. Probably slightly stronger than it currently is at most.

None of the global models were calling for a hurricane prior to crossing the Yucatán. So I'm not really surprised we don't have a cane, I would say that the chances of a cane in the BOC are significantly higher.

I didn't expect it to reach hurricane intensity either, but I didn't expect it to have the inner core issues it's having either--the models may have underestimated the dry air present.

[Hurrilurker]

I wonder if Franklin could regenerate after it crosses Mexico and heads into the Pacific.

[Nederlander]

I wonder if Franklin could regenerate after it crosses Mexico and heads into the Pacific.

10,000-15,000 ft. mountains tend to do a number on TC cores.. it has happened before but I think its highly unlikely that's franklin survives that trek...

[Hammy]

I wonder if Franklin could regenerate after it crosses Mexico and heads into the Pacific.

10,000-15,000 ft. mountains tend to do a number on TC cores.. it has happened before but I think its highly unlikely that's franklin survives that trek...

I've found only four storms that have managed to survive as at least a depression into the EPAC through Mexico in the last 50 years--all in a relatively low area of mountains along similar paths. Debby in 1988 actually maintained itself after for about 72 hours. If Franklin moves fast enough along just the right path, it's possible, though still unlikely.

[txwatcher91]

Frictional affects of land appear to be tightening the core some. Nice little burst over the center as it makes landfall.

[Siker]

It's actually firing its first deep convection over the core in a while now, right at landfall. Weird storm.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well, the storm looks weird. I have never personally seen a storm look like that. Odd. It was looking fine until just after recon. Guess it did not like people snooping around in it.

[weathaguyry]

Very strange storm, we shall see what happens in the BOC

[txwatcher91]

It's actually firing its first deep convection over the core in a while now, right at landfall. Weird storm.

Not that surprising. The frictional effects of land can often help tighten up a circulation and promote brief intensification at landfall. This one had a large, sloppy core and dry air, but it’s fascinating to see this happen!

[Alyono]

there are no signs of dry air in the core of this TC. Not all lack of convection is due to dry air

[Siker]

there are no signs of dry air in the core of this TC. Not all lack of convection is due to dry air

What do you suppose it is, then?

[Hurricaneman]

Possible changes building the core and when that happens sometimes you get pulsing which it seemed to be until the last hour or 2 on the low convective end of one

[weathaguyry]

Some nice convection in the "eye wall"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-animated.gif

[Alyono]

there are no signs of dry air in the core of this TC. Not all lack of convection is due to dry air

What do you suppose it is, then?

simply a TC that does not have a core. They take time to build

[Hammy]

Center jogged a bit SW in recent radar frames. Could emerge further south than predicted if this is more than just a wobble.

[Alyono]

0Z guidance except for the GFS, which is not that useful, has really backed off of intensification in the BOC. Upper edge of guidance barring the COAMPS, that I have not yet looked at, is 75-80 kts

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Gusting up-to 90 mph on the 00z