ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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otowntiger
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#861 Postby otowntiger » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:06 am

abajan wrote:Interestingly enough, although 99L is said to be moving WNW, the 8:05 PM TWD stated that the associated low was centered near 15.5N45.5W but the latest TWD places the low near 15N47W. Assuming the earlier TWD's forecaster opted to be more precise than the latter's, it appears that the low has moved directly westward. However, if it's not a matter of precision and the coordinates in the latter TWD are actually 15.0N47.0W, then the low has in fact moved in a slightly south of west direction. Could it just be a wobble?
. When you are talking about a large disorganized mass of clouds and showers it's really hard to focus on its precise movement/coordinates. And only well organized hurricanes with well defined centers can actually "wobble", lol!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#862 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:11 am

00z Euro 96-216hrs.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#863 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:20 am

Alyono wrote:starting to warm up on this system once it moves into the western Atlantic. May very well get a TS or a cane out of this
would prefer the euro be right over sofla
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#864 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:33 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#865 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:53 am

8 AM TWO up to 30% in 5 days.

A trough of low pressure located about 800 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system is not expected during the
next few days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However,
some development of this system is possible this weekend while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#866 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:28 am

99L has a long wave axis, and the track will be highly dependent upon where the low spins up along the wave. Euro shows the low forming on the northern part of the wave, then 99L takes a significantly NW motion by day 3. If the low forms more to the south, I would think the track could be affected, so details of the recurve not etched in stone yet. The ball of convection that 99L is sporting this morning is due to sheer from a ULL to the NW... Visible sat images show a broad low level turning much further SW, near 15N, 51W, moving almost due west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#867 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:46 am

The low level circulation looks like it's moving due west. Looks pretty barren to me right now, but I guess we may eventually have to watch for a closer-in development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#868 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:07 am

12z Bext Track:

AL, 99, 2017080812, , BEST, 0, 154N, 502W, 25, 1011, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#869 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:15 am

FWIW the 06z GFS has trended towards the Euro with an EC recurve.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#870 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:17 am

Not sure how the Euro has done with ridging, but if the ridge builds in just a little more this will be into the OBX/Long Island/Cape Cod
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#871 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:28 am

0z EPS. Most show no intensification during the first 5 days or so.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#872 Postby GlennOBX » Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:51 am

RL3AO wrote:0z EPS. Most show no intensification during the first 5 days or so.

http://i.imgur.com/sFL1bF1.png


Can someone explain what the levels of shading/colors represent?

Thanks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#873 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:56 am

weathaguyry wrote:Not sure how the Euro has done with ridging, but if the ridge builds in just a little more this will be into the OBX/Long Island/Cape Cod


Well, last year the Euro had Matthew safely missing the E Coast; then, just a few days before landfall, it trended W with a building ridge. That was in October, so it can happen, especially in August.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#874 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:58 am

GlennOBX wrote:
RL3AO wrote:0z EPS. Most show no intensification during the first 5 days or so.

http://i.imgur.com/sFL1bF1.png


Can someone explain what the levels of shading/colors represent?

Thanks


The spatial distribution of the European Ensembles. The brighter the colors, the more members agree that the low will be near that point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#875 Postby WAcyclone » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:07 am

RL3AO wrote:0z EPS. Most show no intensification during the first 5 days or so.

http://i.imgur.com/sFL1bF1.png


Unfortunately, that website seems to update very infrequently for whatever reason. Today's 00z EPS graphic is still not shown yet...
Last edited by WAcyclone on Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#876 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:09 am

WAcyclone wrote:
RL3AO wrote:0z EPS. Most show no intensification during the first 5 days or so.

http://i.imgur.com/sFL1bF1.png


Unfortunately, hat website seems to update very infrequently for whatever reason. Today's 00z EPS graphic is still not shown yet...


I didn't even realize it was the wrong days. It's hit or miss, especially during the invest stage.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#877 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:09 am

This abrupt NNW turn between hours 48 and 72 on the 00Z ECMWF is interesting. Is this really the vorticity moving NNW or does a new vorticity develop along the northern axis? That is like a 500 mile north jump there that would have track implications downstream:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#878 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:13 am

Maybe its where the actual COC consolidates? I am suspicious when the first direction in the models points to a recurve north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#879 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:23 am

TheStormExpert wrote:FWIW the 06z GFS has trended towards the Euro with an EC recurve.


There is nothing even trackable on the 6z GFS, it does not develop 99L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#880 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:28 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:FWIW the 06z GFS has trended towards the Euro with an EC recurve.


There is nothing even trackable on the 6z GFS, it does not develop 99L.


While it's much weaker than the other global models, the GFS 850MB vortex is indeed trackable, and it does recurve just east of the Bahamas.
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