ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sma10]

This abrupt NNW turn between hours 48 and 72 on the 00Z ECMWF is interesting. Is this really the vorticity moving NNW or does a new vorticity develop along the northern axis? That is like a 500 mile north jump there that would have track implications downstream:

Considering the current location and motion of the low level turning, it will be interesting to track the 24hr and 48hr vorticity positions as well.

[floridasun78]

0z EPS. Most show no intensification during the first 5 days or so.

http://i.imgur.com/sFL1bF1.png

Can someone explain what the of shading/colors represent?

Thanks

that look Matthew track

[StormTracker]

I think the wave behind 99L will probably have a better chance of maturing earlier & faster because of 99L clearing out a lot of SAL. Okay, back on topic...

Hi!
Behind? Where? Sorry

The next wave that jumps in the water off the African coast is what I was referring to.

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.3N 72.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2017 120 28.3N 72.0W 1011 25
0000UTC 14.08.2017 132 29.4N 74.0W 1010 25
1200UTC 14.08.2017 144 30.7N 74.9W 1010 28

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC is onboard with development east of the Bahamas while the 12z GFS continues to show no love towards 99L. When was the last time that the Euro showed development and the GFS wasn't even interested? I can't recall.

[gatorcane]

CMC is onboard with development east of the Bahamas while the 12z GFS continues to show no love towards 99L. When was the last time that the Euro showed development and the GFS wasn't even interested? I can't recall.

GFS did not show development with Franklin initially while the Euro had it.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm thinking this gets it's act together by between 55 and 60w after it gets out from under the shear and into the large area of little to no shear and another thing is I think the Euro might be too far north in the next 2 days and this may be closer to the islands, going to be an interesting next 5 days

[blp]

CMC is onboard with development east of the Bahamas while the 12z GFS continues to show no love towards 99L. When was the last time that the Euro showed development and the GFS wasn't even interested? I can't recall.

Even the Navgem, UKmet, JMA have it as well now. Not even showing up in the GEFS ensemble members. If this indeed does develop then I cannot understand how they would have allowed this GFS to move forward. I remember hearing the NHC was having reservations last year with this version of the GFS. Don't know how they still feel but so far not promising IMO.

[Frank2]

The LLC at 15.6N 51.6W actually looks more defined today, but the convection is sheared completely away, so it appears the LLC will move into the Caribbean by this time tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Blown Away]

99L chugging away WNW

[SFLcane]

Either way models that do develop this are showing this recurving with trof in place. Euro been showing for few days now

[tolakram]

GFS sees an extremely dry environment, look at the dewpoint dip. It's showing these unfavorable conditions through the end of it's run. It's either right or wrong.

[cycloneye]

2 PM EDT TWO:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure located about 700 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles. Development of this system is not expected during the
next few days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However,
some development of this system is possible this weekend while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[floridasun78]

2 PM EDT TWO:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure located about 700 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles. Development of this system is not expected during the
next few days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However, i see storm trying form round llc more and past few days
some development of this system is possible this weekend while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Alyono]

the chances are a LOT higher than 30 percent. Probably closer to 75 percent

[blp]

12z euro through 24hrs better defined with the SW vorticity. Will be interesting run.

[floridasun78]

the chances are a LOT higher than 30 percent. Probably closer to 75 percent

i see more storm trying form round llc today and past few days

[Hurricaneman]

12z euro through 24hrs better defined with the SW vorticity. Will be interesting run.

Might put The Florida east coast into play

[floridasun78]

here you see storm today with 99l

[blp]

12z euro through 24hrs better defined with the SW vorticity. Will be interesting run.

Might put The Florida east coast into play

Yep, 48hr makes the NW jump but much further south than last runs position. It should start moving west on the next one. Will be closer to than the last run.