ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/vis0.gif here you see storm today with 99l

Interesting vort. Seems further south than what GFS and Euro initialized.

[cycloneye]

96 hours.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 96 Hours... Likely TD/TS At This Point... Decent SW Jump From 00z...

[weathaguyry]

a bit SE and stronger than the last run at 96hrs

[AutoPenalti]

That NW "jump" doesn't seem right... it's almost a 200-300 mile stretch, unless there is another vorticity that develops within 48 hrs, it's kind of odd.

[gatorcane]

Looks like more ridging on the 12Z ECMWF but still could escape the US.

[cycloneye]

Dont look now.

[Blown Away]

Looks like more ridging on the 12Z ECMWF but still could escape the US.

Yes, ridge building W from 96-120 hrs, but doesn't look strong enough to keep 99l from recurving away from Florida, but not sure about Mid Atlantic on this run...

[SouthFLTropics]

That NW "jump" doesn't seem right... it's almost a 200-300 mile stretch, unless there is another vorticity that develops within 48 hrs, it's kind of odd.

I'm thinking that it is the ULL that is currently passing through the Bahamas that leaves a temporary weakness in the ridge...that's what causes the jump. If the initial LLC establishes further south though...That could change everything.

[sma10]

That NW "jump" doesn't seem right... it's almost a 200-300 mile stretch, unless there is another vorticity that develops within 48 hrs, it's kind of odd.

True, but the developing models (CMC, Euro, Ukmet) all generally agree on this basic scenario, so they must be seeing something we don't.

[cycloneye]

144 hours.

[Ivanhater]

Well that's interesting

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 144hrs... 983 Cat 1 Hurricane... Just NE Of N Bahamas and 100-150 miles W of 00z At This Point... Beginning The Turn...

[gatorcane]

Looks like the trough is going to scoop it up and kick it out to sea just in time again on this run:

[JtSmarts]

As always with these EC storms, timing is going to be absolutely key. I think NC has the greatest threat, but we still have 6-7 days of models to watch.

[gatorcane]

Development chances appear to be increasing but given the Eastern US trough forecasted unanimously by the models to develop this week into early next week, it could just be your typical recurving intensifying storm off the SE Coast of the US. Could be a good ACE pumper though. I had a feeling this one could be a problem down the road but maybe only for the fishes!

[PTrackerLA]

Hi-Res Euro on Weatherbell showing 974 mb at hour 150 but it has already started NNE at this time.

[Blown Away]

That big NW jump between 24-48 hours seems unusual...

[gatorcane]

That is a nice-looking trough in a week that kicks this out to sea. Look how displaced that Bermuda High is! Haven't seen too much of this so far this summer but the long-wave pattern appears to be changing just in time:

[northjaxpro]

That NW "jump" doesn't seem right... it's almost a 200-300 mile stretch, unless there is another vorticity that develops within 48 hrs, it's kind of odd.

I'm thinking that it is the ULL that is currently passing through the Bahamas that leaves a temporary weakness in the ridge...that's what causes the jump. If the initial LLC establishes further south though...That could change everything.

Yes. Good observations here. Also, that vort farther south may be the one that eventually takes over. I have noticed that convection has been gradually building over the southern VORT throughout the day.