ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Sciencerocks wrote:http://imageshack.com/a/img923/8035/jp7vBE.gif
Looks like the eye is clearing out, probably a hurricane
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
it's probably a cane, but the Dvoraks are 3.5, so I highly doubt NHC will upgrade
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
My eyes are probably getting bad with age, but I don't see due North motion with this storm.
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
18:32Z
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Up to 55kt as per the latest best track update, perhaps due to consensus T3.5/3.5 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Looks a bit low to me tbh.
AL, 08, 2017081418, , BEST, 0, 302N, 723W, 55, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 80, 30, 60, 1014, 140, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GERT, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 08, 2017081418, , BEST, 0, 302N, 723W, 55, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 80, 30, 60, 1014, 140, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GERT, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I went with 60 kts in my forecast. Looks close to hurricane strength.
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Have the models yet again overestimated the shear?
Interestingly if you look back through the satellite archives that are out there, the appearance and latitude remind me of Bob in 1991, about how it looked at this point--could the track and intensity be similar (though shifted east by hundreds of miles?)
Interestingly if you look back through the satellite archives that are out there, the appearance and latitude remind me of Bob in 1991, about how it looked at this point--could the track and intensity be similar (though shifted east by hundreds of miles?)
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like some meso's swinging around the nascent eye wall.
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
There is no Recon planned, correct? Since this shouldn't be a land threat at all.
I would probably go 60 kt right now...I'd want to see more conclusive data before upgrading to a hurricane, like a clear microwave image.
I would probably go 60 kt right now...I'd want to see more conclusive data before upgrading to a hurricane, like a clear microwave image.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
CrazyC83 wrote:There is no Recon planned, correct? Since this shouldn't be a land threat at all.
No plans for recon to fly to Gert.
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The banding and CDO definitely remind me of a storm about to cross the hurricane threshold. Would be nice to have recon but whatevs. It's an exciting little storm though... definitely not one of those marginal transient TS we've had many of these last few years.
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Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Yep, if the shear abates at all and given that 30C GoGo juice (SST's), it wouldn't surprise me if Gert briefly ran up (or close) to a Cat.2 hurricane before its all said and done.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
@NOAASatellitePA
UPDATE: NOAA's #GOES16 captured #TropicalStormGert, gaining a bit of strength this afternoon, August 14, 2017, in the Atlantic
https://twitter.com/NOAASatellitePA/status/897189396444831745
UPDATE: NOAA's #GOES16 captured #TropicalStormGert, gaining a bit of strength this afternoon, August 14, 2017, in the Atlantic
https://twitter.com/NOAASatellitePA/status/897189396444831745
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Yes. It's going to be a hurricane by tomorrow at the latest.
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I think in the 5pm advisory, the NHC will upgrade Gert to a 70 mph tropical storm.
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- weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Yes. It's going to be a hurricane by tomorrow at the latest.
Looks like a pretty large eye!
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