ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS is even further SW and takes this into CA/BOC.

[chaser1]

The ECMWF builds the Bermuda High and expands it west over Florida and the Gulf in tandem with this invest moving through the Caribbean and into Central America (animated image of 500MB heights from hour 96 to 192 below). Just a couple of days ago the long-range models showed no Bermuda High in the long-range. Particularly this year with the upgraded GFS and ECMWF, I really am not giving the models much weight beyond about 5 days and certainly not beyond a week.

Pretty reasonable and balanced view. Cant say most of us have as much confidence in the models as years past. Odd, given that the technology and the amount of data going into them has only increased with time. On a different note, HWRF and the JMA (YES, it woke up LOL), both pretty much show 91L as a threat to Puerto Rico and points west. At 126 hours the HWRF has a 980mb low just south of P.R. The JMA showing the system beginning to deepen and moving into (or skimming) S. Dominican Republic but continuing WNW just south of W. Cuba at 196 hours and deepening again.

So, as a recap:
EURO and CMC take 91L north of the islands
JMA and HWRF take 91L into the Caribbean at or close to P.R. or Hispanola
The GFS didnt come out to play today.
Has anyone posted the UK thus far?

[AtlanticWind]

The ECMWF builds the Bermuda High and expands it west over Florida and the Gulf in tandem with this invest moving through the Caribbean and into Central America (animated image of 500MB heights from hour 96 to 192 below). Just a couple of days ago the long-range models showed no Bermuda High in the long-range. Particularly this year with the upgraded GFS and ECMWF, I really am not giving the models much weight beyond about 5 days and certainly not beyond a week.

Pretty reasonable and balanced view. Cant say most of us have as much confidence in the models as years past. Odd, given that the technology and the amount of data going into them has only increased with time. On a different note, HWRF and the JMA (YES, it woke up LOL), both pretty much show 91L as a threat to Puerto Rico and points west. At 126 hours the HWRF has a 980mb low just south of P.R. The JMA showing the system beginning to deepen and moving into (or skimming) S. Dominican Republic but continuing WNW just south of W. Cuba at 196 hours and deepening again.

So, as a recap:
EURO and CMC take 91L north of the islands
JMA and HWRF take 91L into the Caribbean at or close to P.R. or Hispanola
The GFS didnt come out to play today.
Has anyone posted the UK thus far?

Euro takes 91L into carribean

[TheStormExpert]

Sure is a good year to be a weather forecast model! Feels like we just went backwards 10-15 years in just a matter of months with how well these models are performing and it's not just the GFS (though that is the worst).

[gatorcane]

Models have shifted south or either dropped this:

[PTrackerLA]

12z EPS does not have a single member that effects the USA.

[AtlanticWind]

12z EPS does not have a single member that effects the USA.

That's good, but doesn't really mean much this far out.

[chaser1]

The ECMWF builds the Bermuda High and expands it west over Florida and the Gulf in tandem with this invest moving through the Caribbean and into Central America (animated image of 500MB heights from hour 96 to 192 below). Just a couple of days ago the long-range models showed no Bermuda High in the long-range. Particularly this year with the upgraded GFS and ECMWF, I really am not giving the models much weight beyond about 5 days and certainly not beyond a week.

Pretty reasonable and balanced view. Cant say most of us have as much confidence in the models as years past. Odd, given that the technology and the amount of data going into them has only increased with time. On a different note, HWRF and the JMA (YES, it woke up LOL), both pretty much show 91L as a threat to Puerto Rico and points west. At 126 hours the HWRF has a 980mb low just south of P.R. The JMA showing the system beginning to deepen and moving into (or skimming) S. Dominican Republic but continuing WNW just south of W. Cuba at 196 hours and deepening again.

So, as a recap:
EURO and CMC take 91L north of the islands
JMA and HWRF take 91L into the Caribbean at or close to P.R. or Hispanola
The GFS didnt come out to play today.
Has anyone posted the UK thus far?

Euro takes 91L into carribean

I stand corrected. You are right, although fairly week it does in fact share a similar track as the JMA and HWRF (other than pushing 91L into Central America under a strong ridge). In fact it was the "I storm" that I was seeing the EURO carry more northwest.

[gatorcane]

[sma10]

System way too far away at this point to matter, but I've decided to hug this model run from today's 12Z GFS ensemble suite which is not only sending 91L into Miami on Aug 23, but also sending the next wave exiting the African coast into .... MIAMI three days later.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFSens8 ... 2/slp.anim

The media frenzy alone would be worth the cost of admission.

[AtlanticWind]

System way too far away at this point to matter, but I've decided to hug this model run from today's 12Z GFS ensemble suite which is not only sending 91L into Miami on Aug 23, but also sending the next wave exiting the African coast into .... MIAMI three days later.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFSens8 ... 2/slp.anim

The media frenzy alone would be worth the cost of admission.

Funny, I was just going to post this ensemble

[jlauderdal]

System way too far away at this point to matter, but I've decided to hug this model run from today's 12Z GFS ensemble suite which is not only sending 91L into Miami on Aug 23, but also sending the next wave exiting the African coast into .... MIAMI three days later.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFSens8 ... 2/slp.anim

The media frenzy alone would be worth the cost of admission.

Funny, I was just going to post this ensemble

the obligatory south florida hit x2, happens every year this time its a double shot, put the shutters up once and get 2 for the price of 1...that ridge is concerning for a united states hit, will see

[Bocadude85]

18z GFS is coming in stronger through 72 hours

[AutoPenalti]

System way too far away at this point to matter, but I've decided to hug this model run from today's 12Z GFS ensemble suite which is not only sending 91L into Miami on Aug 23, but also sending the next wave exiting the African coast into .... MIAMI three days later.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFSens8 ... 2/slp.anim

The media frenzy alone would be worth the cost of admission.

That's just beautiful.

Not only does miami get hit once, it gets hit TWICE in the SAME week.

So does the panhandle, what a fantasy nightmare.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS tries to develop both areas of vorticity which based on the other models is probably erroneous

[RL3AO]

This is an example of me questioning the GFS CP scheme. Yes, it's not saturated, but it's not dry either. The environment is modeled to be very unstable with low shear, PWATs near 2", and mixing ratios > 8 g/kg up to 700 mb. With even weak low-level convergence or upper divergence, you should be seeing deep and sustained convection.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS is broken to me, it has 99L near Bermuda and in the Bahamas

[RL3AO]

A reminder that model loops are being saved and linked to in the first post of the thread.

[RL3AO]

18Z GFS. Saved in first post of the thread.

[stormreader]

Models have shifted south or either dropped this:

Well, that is a definite trend.