ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[beoumont]

PTC Nine?

Private Third Class? Interesting we are going back to military designations for tropical systems: Able, Baker, Charley, etc.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

SW Outflow quickly kicking in.
All from the Convection.
No ULLs equatorward that would be assisting this.

This is escalating quickly

[Alyono]

Easterly shear still persists. This needs to move faster in order to reduce the shear. Center soon to be exposed again

[Nimbus]

The shear forecast in the Caribbean is a little more favorable for development than usual and that might lead to a track north of Honduras so I can see the reasoning behind the forecast. Current shear from the east will likely keep the intensity down, but the northern quadrant could easily have 40 knot winds when recon arrives.

[tolakram]

SLIDER
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17352&y=8134&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Sanibel]

Interesting set up...Beautiful high resolution loop Tolakram...This might actually slip underneath Caribbean hostility...Interesting to see how the TUTT affects it and how much it boosts when it hits favorable climatology in the West Caribbean...

[chaser1]

Overall structure seems to be looking slightly better; just needs a bit more convection. Doesn't appear to be any real dry air around and it even looks as if the SST's get a tad warmer at 30C coming into the Islands.

[chaser1]

I'll bet on recon finding only weak west winds at the surface thus initially designating this as a T.D, but not a storm yet.

[Sanibel]

Look at the horn-like shape of the southern inflow off the equator...Too early to say now and a little underconvected but this is a pattern I've seen associated with classic hurricanes before...

[AxaltaRacing24]

09L and 92L

[GCANE]

Looking at Flight-Level Winds Recon is tagging on the NW quad and comparing with VIS on the NE quad; it may be possible this is a TS.

[Alyono]

got hit quite hard by shear in the last 90 minutes. This is still a slow developer

[Aric Dunn]

per recon definitely TS Strength. Also another quite large burst of convection building rapidly..

[Alyono]

if there is a center, this is a named storm

[Cunxi Huang]

I guess 09L would probably go with a south-ish path among these models. SHIPS looks like it suggests a more straight track towards the east coast of Yucatan Peninsula.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon does some weird stuff sometimes. ... Why would they turn east when the center is just to the south..

[CrazyC83]

If there is a center, I would think it would be near 12.8N 55.0W.

[Aric Dunn]

ok lets just completly fly around the center lol..

[Tireman4]

ok lets just completly fly around the center lol..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... INVEST.png

Saves gas,.?

[Aric Dunn]

I mean I guess there could be multiple vorts so they are just checking for the broad overall wind field ? lol that was just odd