ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

I think we end up getting the classic stair step through the Bahamas unless the ridge really builds in and it plays out like the CMC is showing with the dive over Cuba. I'm not buying that dip just yet, although we have seen it before with Ike and Katrina. On a stair step approach even a slight weakness can mean a landfall in Central Florida versus South Florida due to the angle of approach as well as the angle of the coastline.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171857
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 22 20170817
184700 1227N 05523W 9770 00270 0075 +235 +233 272016 017 018 000 01
184730 1227N 05522W 9774 00267 //// +235 //// 270016 016 017 000 05
184800 1228N 05520W 9772 00267 //// +236 //// 262016 016 017 000 01
184830 1229N 05519W 9772 00267 //// +236 //// 258016 016 018 000 01
184900 1229N 05517W 9773 00267 //// +237 //// 253016 017 017 000 05
184930 1230N 05515W 9773 00267 0075 +238 +236 251015 016 015 000 01
185000 1231N 05514W 9774 00265 //// +236 //// 248016 016 016 000 01
185030 1232N 05512W 9774 00265 0074 +237 +231 246016 016 013 000 01
185100 1232N 05511W 9776 00263 0074 +236 +233 247014 015 014 000 01
185130 1233N 05509W 9771 00269 //// +235 //// 242014 014 013 000 01
185200 1234N 05508W 9772 00267 0073 +237 +232 238014 015 014 000 01
185230 1235N 05506W 9774 00265 0074 +237 +228 236015 015 014 000 01
185300 1236N 05505W 9771 00269 0075 +238 +232 231015 015 014 000 03
185330 1236N 05503W 9768 00271 //// +235 //// 226015 015 013 000 01
185400 1237N 05502W 9778 00262 0074 +238 +233 222014 015 012 000 03
185430 1239N 05501W 9772 00269 0075 +237 +234 217014 014 013 000 01
185500 1241N 05501W 9773 00268 0075 +239 +233 212015 015 014 000 00
185530 1242N 05501W 9773 00268 0075 +236 +235 214014 015 013 000 01
185600 1244N 05500W 9774 00265 0074 +236 +236 209013 013 012 000 01
185630 1246N 05500W 9776 00265 //// +235 //// 207013 013 012 000 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171907
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 23 20170817
185700 1247N 05500W 9769 00271 0075 +235 +232 206013 014 012 000 01
185730 1249N 05500W 9774 00268 //// +235 //// 205014 015 013 000 01
185800 1251N 05500W 9766 00273 //// +235 //// 203014 015 013 000 01
185830 1252N 05500W 9777 00264 0075 +235 +233 202015 015 010 000 01
185900 1254N 05500W 9773 00269 0076 +235 +234 202015 015 011 000 01
185930 1256N 05500W 9773 00267 //// +233 //// 203014 015 012 000 01
190000 1257N 05500W 9773 00267 //// +232 //// 198015 016 011 000 05
190030 1259N 05500W 9774 00267 //// +231 //// 195014 015 011 000 01
190100 1301N 05500W 9774 00265 //// +230 //// 195015 015 015 001 01
190130 1302N 05500W 9774 00265 //// +230 //// 195015 015 013 000 01
190200 1304N 05500W 9772 00269 //// +233 //// 187015 015 014 000 01
190230 1306N 05459W 9772 00269 //// +234 //// 182015 015 013 000 05
190300 1307N 05501W 9770 00271 //// +234 //// 170013 014 012 000 01
190330 1308N 05502W 9772 00267 //// +234 //// 166014 016 015 000 01
190400 1308N 05504W 9774 00265 //// +232 //// 164016 017 015 000 01
190430 1309N 05505W 9774 00264 //// +231 //// 166015 016 014 000 05
190500 1310N 05506W 9770 00268 0073 +233 +232 168017 017 015 000 01
190530 1310N 05508W 9772 00267 0072 +237 +231 173018 018 017 000 00
190600 1311N 05510W 9771 00265 0071 +239 +233 174018 018 018 000 03
190630 1312N 05511W 9774 00263 0071 +242 +234 179020 021 018 000 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171917
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 24 20170817
190700 1313N 05513W 9778 00258 0070 +244 +230 183021 022 018 000 03
190730 1313N 05514W 9774 00262 0069 +238 +237 170021 022 020 000 01
190800 1314N 05516W 9772 00263 //// +229 //// 161022 023 024 000 01
190830 1315N 05517W 9773 00262 //// +234 //// 145022 024 027 000 01
190900 1315N 05519W 9772 00259 //// +235 //// 136019 021 023 000 01
190930 1316N 05520W 9771 00257 //// +245 //// 126018 018 019 001 05
191000 1316N 05522W 9776 00249 //// +245 //// 114021 022 021 000 01
191030 1317N 05524W 9774 00253 //// +245 //// 105023 024 021 000 01
191100 1317N 05526W 9771 00257 //// +245 //// 095025 026 024 000 01
191130 1318N 05527W 9675 00326 //// +243 //// 094027 029 025 000 05
191200 1318N 05529W 9350 00630 0041 +239 +223 094031 033 /// /// 03
191230 1319N 05531W 9115 00857 0041 +224 +211 092034 035 027 000 03
191300 1320N 05532W 8835 01122 0038 +209 +200 093032 035 /// /// 03
191330 1321N 05534W 8537 01424 0040 +201 +177 093027 029 028 000 03
191400 1322N 05536W 8429 01550 0054 +198 +163 095029 030 029 000 00
191430 1323N 05538W 8434 01544 0058 +191 +176 092031 031 029 000 00
191500 1324N 05539W 8433 01547 0060 +187 +184 089032 032 031 000 01
191530 1324N 05541W 8430 01549 //// +186 //// 083033 033 031 000 01
191600 1325N 05543W 8434 01548 //// +180 //// 081033 034 030 000 01
191630 1326N 05544W 8432 01549 //// +180 //// 077033 034 029 000 01
$$
;

Climbed to 5,000 feet.

[cycloneye]

[RL3AO]

The 60/60 odds tell us the NHC thinks this is only something that can develop in the next two days. After that conditions become too negative. It if doesn't develop, we'll have to watch for when they start making the 5 day genesis odds higher than the two day odds when it approaches the Bahamas.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171927
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 25 20170817
191700 1327N 05546W 8431 01550 //// +176 //// 074035 035 028 000 01
191730 1328N 05548W 8433 01549 //// +175 //// 077035 035 027 000 01
191800 1329N 05549W 8434 01549 //// +172 //// 077036 037 028 000 01
191830 1330N 05550W 8428 01555 //// +178 //// 075036 037 028 000 01
191900 1332N 05552W 8437 01548 //// +175 //// 071035 036 028 000 01
191930 1333N 05553W 8429 01556 0074 +176 +164 071035 036 026 000 01
192000 1334N 05555W 8438 01550 0076 +175 +170 070034 036 027 001 01
192030 1335N 05556W 8429 01558 0076 +176 +171 074034 034 028 001 01
192100 1336N 05557W 8428 01560 0076 +181 +172 074034 034 025 000 00
192130 1338N 05559W 8436 01554 //// +176 //// 072034 035 025 000 01
192200 1339N 05600W 8430 01559 0079 +177 +173 071034 034 025 000 00
192230 1340N 05601W 8435 01555 0080 +176 +174 070035 036 024 000 01
192300 1341N 05603W 8432 01559 0079 +178 +173 071036 037 024 000 00
192330 1342N 05604W 8430 01560 0079 +179 +174 073038 038 025 000 00
192400 1344N 05605W 8434 01556 //// +175 //// 074037 038 025 000 01
192430 1345N 05607W 8433 01559 0082 +175 +172 072036 037 025 000 00
192500 1346N 05608W 8433 01559 //// +173 //// 071033 036 024 000 05
192530 1347N 05609W 8433 01559 //// +171 //// 074032 032 024 000 01
192600 1348N 05611W 8429 01562 0083 +173 +172 076032 034 024 000 01
192630 1350N 05612W 8433 01561 0086 +175 +173 076032 034 024 000 00
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

The key to 92L future will be how far the ULL dives SW and what position 92L is in relation to that ULL.

[cycloneye]

[SouthFLTropics]

The key to 92L future will be how far the ULL dives SW and what position 92L is in relation to that ULL.

The ULL is diving South now and 92L is already getting a haircut with the convection being blown off to the East as evidenced on the water vapor loop. 92L has a tough road ahead of it during the next two days. If it survives that then we will see what is left and what we're dealing with in the Bahamas.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171937
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 26 20170817
192700 1351N 05614W 8433 01561 0085 +174 +173 078032 033 025 000 01
192730 1352N 05615W 8432 01561 //// +165 //// 079034 036 025 000 01
192800 1353N 05616W 8431 01564 //// +156 //// 079037 037 027 000 01
192830 1355N 05618W 8434 01561 //// +162 //// 073038 039 030 002 01
192900 1356N 05619W 8430 01565 0102 +171 //// 074038 039 029 003 01
192930 1357N 05620W 8434 01562 0108 +175 +175 071036 039 027 018 00
193000 1358N 05622W 8430 01566 0102 +172 //// 069034 035 030 005 01
193030 1359N 05623W 8434 01564 0102 +171 //// 069038 038 030 009 05
193100 1401N 05624W 8433 01565 0115 +166 +166 069039 039 029 016 00
193130 1402N 05626W 8428 01568 0115 +166 +166 067039 040 033 042 00
193200 1403N 05627W 8437 01560 0115 +170 +170 063035 039 036 039 03
193230 1404N 05628W 8429 01564 0113 +171 +171 070039 041 043 054 03
193300 1405N 05630W 8435 01568 0116 +170 +170 059040 042 030 035 00
193330 1406N 05631W 8417 01582 0108 +173 +173 054039 042 033 009 00
193400 1408N 05632W 8429 01570 0104 +176 //// 058033 034 036 007 01
193430 1409N 05634W 8436 01564 //// +167 //// 062035 036 030 006 01
193500 1410N 05635W 8433 01568 0091 +174 +170 064034 035 028 001 01
193530 1411N 05636W 8429 01572 0091 +179 +167 067034 035 026 000 00
193600 1412N 05638W 8430 01571 0090 +182 +159 069034 035 024 000 00
193630 1412N 05638W 8430 01571 0092 +176 +167 068035 035 024 000 00
$$
;

43 kt SFMR possibly contaminated by rain. Still several TS force wind reports.

[Blown Away]

18z... Across the board the shear predictions have significantly dropped today...

[Hurricaneman]

The key to 92L future will be how far the ULL dives SW and what position 92L is in relation to that ULL.

The ULL is diving South now and 92L is already getting a haircut with the convection being blown off to the East as evidenced on the water vapor loop. 92L has a tough road ahead of it during the next two days. If it survives that then we will see what is left and what we're dealing with in the Bahamas.

I think this will survive in some form and start real development north of the lesser Antilles, similar to such storms as Andrew 1992 and Erin 1995 and that's why you have to watch these things

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171947
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 27 20170817
193700 1415N 05640W 8429 01572 0096 +173 +160 066034 035 024 000 03
193730 1416N 05642W 8433 01567 0095 +175 +158 065034 035 023 000 00
193800 1417N 05643W 8432 01571 0095 +175 +157 065035 035 024 000 00
193830 1418N 05644W 8433 01569 0094 +180 +149 067036 037 023 000 03
193900 1419N 05646W 8426 01575 0093 +177 +152 065035 036 /// /// 03
193930 1418N 05648W 8433 01567 0094 +175 +154 063034 035 /// /// 03
194000 1416N 05647W 8432 01569 0093 +175 +154 064033 033 023 000 03
194030 1415N 05646W 8433 01570 0094 +175 +156 064032 033 024 000 03
194100 1414N 05645W 8433 01570 0096 +174 +156 065031 032 025 000 00
194130 1414N 05643W 8432 01570 0097 +172 +157 064030 030 024 000 00
194200 1413N 05642W 8429 01572 0093 +179 +161 062031 032 023 000 00
194230 1412N 05641W 8428 01573 0093 +178 +164 065030 031 023 000 03
194300 1411N 05640W 8432 01570 0094 +175 +167 065032 034 023 000 00
194330 1410N 05638W 8430 01571 0094 +175 +172 068030 032 025 000 01
194400 1410N 05637W 8428 01573 //// +171 //// 065029 030 031 003 01
194430 1409N 05636W 8436 01564 0109 +181 +181 060030 031 032 014 03
194500 1407N 05635W 8437 01566 0110 +173 +173 063031 032 032 012 00
194530 1406N 05634W 8431 01568 0103 +169 +167 063034 034 031 006 00
194600 1405N 05632W 8433 01568 0093 +174 +168 062033 034 030 001 00
194630 1404N 05631W 8430 01571 0100 +171 +168 065034 034 029 002 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171957
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 28 20170817
194700 1403N 05630W 8432 01568 0096 +164 //// 065033 034 027 004 01
194730 1402N 05629W 8430 01570 0093 +175 +166 062033 034 026 000 00
194800 1401N 05628W 8432 01568 0095 +175 +163 061034 035 027 001 00
194830 1400N 05627W 8429 01571 0098 +171 +167 059034 035 027 001 00
194900 1359N 05626W 8428 01570 0109 +167 +167 057033 035 034 016 00
194930 1358N 05624W 8428 01566 0107 +176 +176 068031 036 036 015 03
195000 1356N 05623W 8436 01560 0102 +172 //// 069034 036 033 011 01
195030 1355N 05622W 8428 01571 //// +168 //// 069034 034 028 001 01
195100 1354N 05621W 8433 01564 0090 +174 +173 073034 034 027 000 01
195130 1353N 05620W 8432 01565 //// +173 //// 073033 034 027 000 01
195200 1352N 05619W 8432 01565 //// +175 //// 072033 034 026 000 01
195230 1351N 05618W 8432 01565 //// +175 //// 071033 034 026 000 01
195300 1350N 05617W 8433 01564 0087 +178 +171 074033 034 025 000 00
195330 1349N 05616W 8432 01565 0086 +179 +169 075034 034 024 000 00
195400 1348N 05615W 8429 01567 0086 +176 +168 072033 034 024 000 00
195430 1347N 05613W 8429 01566 0087 +176 +170 071035 036 024 000 01
195500 1346N 05612W 8433 01562 //// +175 //// 072034 036 024 000 01
195530 1345N 05611W 8432 01562 0084 +178 +170 073033 033 026 000 00
195600 1344N 05610W 8430 01564 0084 +175 +171 073031 033 027 000 00
195630 1343N 05609W 8432 01561 0084 +175 +166 071030 031 027 000 01
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

Wow under 20kts through 120 hours...though these shear forecasts are awful..but if they are correct 92L should be able to survive the shear.

[AtlanticWind]

http://i.imgur.com/CylDgfp.jpg
18z... Across the board the shear predictions have significantly dropped today...

That's a real interesting change, we will see if it's reflected in the Global model runs later.

[jlauderdal]

http://i.imgur.com/CylDgfp.jpg
18z... Across the board the shear predictions have significantly dropped today...

That's a real interesting change, we will see if it's reflected in the Global model runs later.

that is a decreasing trend but its a shear forecast so its iffy at best

[jlauderdal]

low shear environment in the SE Bahamas is very dangerous