ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

I believe the 18z GFS showed the SE low becoming the dominant low, but the NHC's 00z position had the NW low...

[stormreader]

Quick peek shows there are a few t-storms trying to fire within the swirl of the northern vort. From the naked eye, it looks like northern vort is really trucking WNW.

[sma10]

The laughable track from the GFS doesn't look so laughable anymore, showing the Southern Florida peninsula being intersected on two consecutive days, 92L coming in directly from the east, followed by "92L - B" coming straight up from south to north a day later.

[stormreader]

Mid level vort has had some intense towers building near the center of circulation.
That could mean that it is now coupled with surface inflow and is a separate self sustaining system.
Also could be an optical illusion, I lost my last bet over a model interpretation and had to make a donation to Storm2k so...

It really does have the look of a separate self-contained system. If that happens that would be very cool!

[sma10]

Mid level vort has had some intense towers building near the center of circulation.
That could mean that it is now coupled with surface inflow and is a separate self sustaining system.
Also could be an optical illusion, I lost my last bet over a model interpretation and had to make a donation to Storm2k so...

It really does have the look of a separate self-contained system. If that happens that would be very cool!

Agreed. But surely they are too close together to sustain this, no?

[stormreader]

The laughable track from the GFS doesn't look so laughable anymore, showing the Southern Florida peninsula being intersected on two consecutive days, 92L coming in directly from the east, followed by "92L - B" coming straight up from south to north a day later.

Wow! That might show where some of fine-tune tweaking to the GFS actually paid off. That would mean it deciphered a very unlikely solution from a complex situation. It's taken a lot of bashing, but if it gets this right then we would have to give it its due credit.

[sma10]

The laughable track from the GFS doesn't look so laughable anymore, showing the Southern Florida peninsula being intersected on two consecutive days, 92L coming in directly from the east, followed by "92L - B" coming straight up from south to north a day later.

Wow! That might show where some of fine-tune tweaking to the GFS actually paid off. That would mean it deciphered a very unlikely solution from a complex situation. It's taken a lot of bashing, but if it gets this right then we would have to give it its due credit.

I will say that if the GFS ends up being correct, and that 2nd mystery area ends up developing and landfalling as a named system, it might go down as an all-timer for sneak attacks.

[NotSparta]

If both the pieces of vorticity separate, 92L will be the master of tropical mitosis.

[stormreader]

The laughable track from the GFS doesn't look so laughable anymore, showing the Southern Florida peninsula being intersected on two consecutive days, 92L coming in directly from the east, followed by "92L - B" coming straight up from south to north a day later.

Wow! That might show where some of fine-tune tweaking to the GFS actually paid off. That would mean it deciphered a very unlikely solution from a complex situation. It's taken a lot of bashing, but if it gets this right then we would have to give it its due credit.

I will say that if the GFS ends up being correct, and that 2nd mystery area ends up developing and landfalling as a named system, it might go down as an all-timer for sneak attacks.

The more I look at it, the more I think the north vort is on the fast track for working that mid level circ down to the surface. Have to see if the southern vort can survive as the bastard child of the parent system.

[stormreader]

If it happens, still a big if, they would each be small systems within a very small area. Fuji effect??? All speculation.

[Hammy]

If anything that piece of energy will keep this from consolidating similarly to the two vortices of Hermine last year as it passed Puerto Rico. Except 92L will be over Florida by the time it attempts consolidation instead of being over warm water.

[Hurricaneman]

If both the pieces of vorticity separate, 92L will be the master of tropical mitosis.

Wouldn't be the first time it happened, in 2005 we had td10 separate into 2 vortices and one moved into the BOC and became Jose and the other became the costliest hurricane in US history in Katrina so there is a precedent here

I'm in no way expecting anything close to a Katrina but it's something to keep in mind

[stormreader]

If both the pieces of vorticity separate, 92L will be the master of tropical mitosis.

Wouldn't be the first time it happened, in 2005 we had td10 separate into 2 vortices and one moved into the BOC and became Jose and the other became the costliest hurricane in US history in Katrina so there is a precedent here

I'm in no way expecting anything close to a Katrina but it's something to keep in mind

One point gonna make here. Just to throw it out. It looks to be a developing small system in the Bahamas (north vort I think more likely now), but whatever. Sometimes those systems can spin up very quickly. All time example is not Katrina. It's the 1935 Labor Day Storm which was very small and appears to have organized very close in to Fl and the Bahamas and as far as we can tell went from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 buzz saw in a very short period of time. Won't say exactly, can't recall, but very short time frame.

[Sciencerocks]

Wow! That might show where some of fine-tune tweaking to the GFS actually paid off. That would mean it deciphered a very unlikely solution from a complex situation. It's taken a lot of bashing, but if it gets this right then we would have to give it its due credit.

I will say that if the GFS ends up being correct, and that 2nd mystery area ends up developing and landfalling as a named system, it might go down as an all-timer for sneak attacks.

The more I look at it, the more I think the north vort is on the fast track for working that mid level circ down to the surface. Have to see if the southern vort can survive as the bastard child of the parent system.

I agree with you 100% on this as the northern Vort looks almost like it is attempting to become a nice LLC and convection appears to be developing over it. We will see if it can maintain but chances appear to be increasing.

[Sciencerocks]

If anything that piece of energy will keep this from consolidating similarly to the two vortices of Hermine last year as it passed Puerto Rico. Except 92L will be over Florida by the time it attempts consolidation instead of being over warm water.

The northern vort appears to be far stronger and I doubt if convection can hold that the southern "area" of energy will stop it.

[chaser1]

Small spin up's can be potent no doubt. I see some nice convection forming around what I believe the center to be (24.0N and 72.0W); I'm leary to believe its fast motion will aid in a tremendous amound of organization in the 48 hours prior to approaching the Florida coastline but its something I'd be leary of nonetheless. A T.S. or minimal hurricane does not seem an unreasonable outcome, but for the moment I'd lean toward a minimal to moderate T.S. It certainly bears watching (Kodiak, not brown )

[floridasun78]

i got feeling 92l have waking up

[painkillerr]

If anything that piece of energy will keep this from consolidating similarly to the two vortices of Hermine last year as it passed Puerto Rico. Except 92L will be over Florida by the time it attempts consolidation instead of being over warm water.

When is it expected to reach the Florida coast?

[Happy Pelican]

The laughable track from the GFS doesn't look so laughable anymore, showing the Southern Florida peninsula being intersected on two consecutive days, 92L coming in directly from the east, followed by "92L - B" coming straight up from south to north a day later.

Thank you for saying but I've been thinking. I know it's the Canadian model but a few days ago, it had something to the East of 92l that looked to be closing off 92L's escape hatch out to sea and had it going directly into the east coast (not quite Sandyesque) but forced 92L into the D.C. area. Now, that phantom storm isn't showing up and 92L has started coming East because it has an escape OTS.

Could that mystery storm the CMC picked up a few runs back actually be what you (for arguement sake) called 92-B? What the heck do I know but it's making sense in my head, I hope I'm somewhat conveying my thoughts without looking like a babbling fool.

If 92L somehow managed to become 2 separate systems with one going up the coast and the other heading straight north, up the Atlantic, perhaps that's what the CMC was picking up on a few days ago and if so, the potential for a coastal hugger (albeit a weak one) could be possible?

Clear as mud? I just confused myself.

[crimi481]

Is all this weather going to form i big storm? Coming from all directions.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-bd.html