ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

@BigJoeBastardi
Harvey will make comeback. Track likely between Cindy and Franklin which means Texas should watch closely I have alot of concern, esp
S Tex

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/899630115864408065

Cindy 2017? We'd have to have a pretty significant breakdown in the ridge for that though, correct?

[Cpv17]

@BigJoeBastardi
Harvey will make comeback. Track likely between Cindy and Franklin which means Texas should watch closely I have alot of concern, esp
S Tex

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/899630115864408065

Cindy 2017? We'd have to have a pretty significant breakdown in the ridge for that though, correct?

The ridge is forecasted to be replaced by a trough.

[stormlover2013]

Models showing it breaking

[SoupBone]

@BigJoeBastardi
Harvey will make comeback. Track likely between Cindy and Franklin which means Texas should watch closely I have alot of concern, esp
S Tex

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/899630115864408065

Cindy 2017? We'd have to have a pretty significant breakdown in the ridge for that though, correct?

The ridge is forecasted to be replaced by a trough.

Strange that barely anyone is talking about a system that's only 5 days from making an impact somewhere between Northern Mexico and the Texas coast.

[Stormcenter]

I would say all of the U.S. Gulf coastline from TX. to LA. should watch the future develops of Harvey's remnants. If anything it will be a rain maker for many. IMO

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I would say all of the U.S. Gulf coastline from TX. to LA. should watch the future develops of Harvey's remnants. If anything it will be a rain maker for many. IMO

No way LA is in play but texas is

[Steve]

I would say all of the U.S. Gulf coastline from TX. to LA. should watch the future develops of Harvey's remnants. If anything it will be a rain maker for many. IMO

Yeah. I don't have a call, but South Texas seems almost as likely as Northern Mexico. EURO and GFS are near the border with circulation on the TX side. CMC is as well but actually brings another low back offshore out the remnants south of Louisiana in the 10 day timeframe. It doesn't see a way for all the surface energy to get out. Probably b.s. What I do have a call on is that interest from Texans will be picking up this week.

[NDG]

Within the circled area is where I think an LLC is trying to get going this morning. IMO.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Within the circled area is where I think an LLC is trying to get going this morning. IMO.

Yeah that exactly what I was about to say something is definitely starting to get going down there

[Frank P]

I would say all of the U.S. Gulf coastline from TX. to LA. should watch the future develops of Harvey's remnants. If anything it will be a rain maker for many. IMO

No way LA is in play but texas is

Never say never.... just several days ago many were saying no way to TX.... keep watching for the trends... would not surprise me for it to get as high as the TX?LA coast... but like everyone else, I have no crystal ball and will just keep watching for the sure to come model trends.... central TX coast looks like a good spot as any right now... just that is pure unscientific premature speculation on my part...

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I would say all of the U.S. Gulf coastline from TX. to LA. should watch the future develops of Harvey's remnants. If anything it will be a rain maker for many. IMO

No way LA is in play but texas is

Never say never.... just several days ago many were saying no way to TX.... keep watching for the trends... would not surprise me for it to get as high as the TX?LA coast... but like everyone else, I have no crystal ball and will just keep watching for the sure to come model trends.... central TX coast looks like a good spot as any right now... just that is pure unscientific premature speculation on my part...

OK from the start I said Texas was in play I was one of the only people on here saying this but I'm about 95% sure this doesn't get as far North as Galveston I'm thinking a border hit or maybe corpus christi at furthest north

[SoupBone]

I would say all of the U.S. Gulf coastline from TX. to LA. should watch the future develops of Harvey's remnants. If anything it will be a rain maker for many. IMO

No way LA is in play but texas is

Never say never.... just several days ago many were saying no way to TX.... keep watching for the trends... would not surprise me for it to get as high as the TX?LA coast... but like everyone else, I have no crystal ball and will just keep watching for the sure to come model trends.... central TX coast looks like a good spot as any right now... just that is pure unscientific premature speculation on my part...

I've been watching closely for the last 4 days or so, and there seems to be some closing in on the Northern Mexican/Southern Texas coastlines, even with the ping-pong going on. Each set of model runs has seen much less of a swing. With that said, I think the models are beginning to get a better idea now.

[latitude_20]

We welcome the rain! Preps are topped off, headed out in a bit to get ice. Sounds a bit extreme, i know, but a 25-30mph sustained wind can take out power here for 12 hours or more.

[stormlover2013]

man this will be a weakness the models aren't showing the ridge as strong as the thought, also it depends where it comes of the Yucatan, it could get that far north just a waiting game lets see what the 12z runs say, but wouldn't surprise me of getting north to matagorda Bay, especially if the trend is north we shall see.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

man this will be a weakness the models aren't showing the ridge as strong as the thought, also it depends where it comes of the Yucatan, it could get that far north just a waiting game lets see what the 12z runs say, but wouldn't surprise me of getting north to matagorda Bay, especially if the trend is north we shall see.

Unlikely GFS probably will show another south Texas hit and the UKMET will likely show a Northern Mexico hit!

[Bhuggs]

Man this looks like a potentially very dangerous situation. An area of the country that has not been hit in a very long time and maybe 2 days notice once this gets clear of the Yucatán. This model agreement from overnight runs really has my interest peaked. Are there any indication this thing could get above CAT 1?

[mcheer23]

Weakness will be there. A stronger storm will likely turn more NNW. A weaker storm more WNW to NW

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Weakness will be there. A stronger storm will likely turn more NNW. A weaker storm more WNW to NW

You are correct

[SoupBone]

Man this looks like a potentially very dangerous situation. An area of the country that has not been hit in a very long time and maybe 2 days notice once this gets clear of the Yucatán. This model agreement from overnight runs really has my interest peaked. Are there any indication this thing could get above CAT 1?

I think there was at least one model showing a Cat 2, but I can't say which one.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Man this looks like a potentially very dangerous situation. An area of the country that has not been hit in a very long time and maybe 2 days notice once this gets clear of the Yucatán. This model agreement from overnight runs really has my interest peaked. Are there any indication this thing could get above CAT 1?

Most models show a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm a few make it a major